bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Biggest Euro run of our lives until the next one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is caving...game on for BOS/ORH tomorrow night...has that really nice burst between 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is caving...game on for BOS/ORH tomorrow night...has that really nice burst between 06z and 12z. Is it as cold as the NAM, or pretty much the same? Just curious for down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam might actually be one of the best models to go with Euro is caving...game on for BOS/ORH tomorrow night...has that really nice burst between 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Is it as cold as the NAM, or pretty much the same? Just curious for down here Its similar at 30 hours but def colder by 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is caving...game on for BOS/ORH tomorrow night...has that really nice burst between 06z and 12z. Still an early afternoon start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Close to an inch of QPF for BOS by 00z Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Its similar at 30 hours but def colder by 36 hours. Awesome. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 While we wait for Euro... Can someone comment on Matt Noyes' analysis: " The temperature though a deep layer of the snow-producing cloud layer over New England is sub-freezing - warm enough for snow - but not cold enough for efficiently accumulating snow crystals. Rather, the temperature aloft is supportive of some of the worst kind of accumulating flakes that can develop. As a result, I've kept amounts reasonable." Snow, but the worst kind of accumulating flakes. What layer is this? And if it's sub-freezing throughout the column, how cold does it need to be? I tried to find cross-sections of Oct 31 when snow flakes were flying for hours but had hard time accumulating in Boston metro. For better ratios, typically you want to see the -12 through -18 degree Celsius column saturated in the atmosphere. It is this range where you normally have full dendrite ice crystals forming, which generally produce the best snowfall ratios. What is sounds like Matt Noyes was trying to say is that that the entire column of the atmosphere might be below freezing, but the moisture does not reach up into this "snow growth" zone where the majority of ice crystals produced are dendrites. In this case if the moisture dries up somewhere between -5 to -10 degrees Celsius, you can expect to see more needles and prisms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 1" QPF all as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Close to an inch of QPF for BOS by 00z Thu night. Funny thing is... its still the driest model compared to the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro def caved toward the NAM...its a big storm for BOS...still not that great with the front end initial burst...much better for CT and W MA...but it goes to town overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro def caved toward the NAM...its a big storm for BOS...still not that great with the front end initial burst...much better for CT and W MA...but it goes to town overnight. How big is big? Accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 wow euro is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Game on! Pete B will bust horribly. Hopefully he doesn't get the pink slip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Close to an inch of QPF for BOS by 00z Thu night. Wow. this has certainly turned into a Ma. storm. Does it give Ct. anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 For better ratios, typically you want to see the -12 through -18 degree Celsius column saturated in the atmosphere. It is this range where you normally have full dendrite ice crystals forming, which generally produce the best snowfall ratios. What is sounds like Matt Noyes was trying to say is that that the entire column of the atmosphere might be below freezing, but the moisture does not reach up into this "snow growth" zone where the majority of ice crystals produced are dendrites. In this case if the moisture dries up somewhere between -5 to -10 degrees Celsius, you can expect to see more needles and prisms. Thanks, and great write ups by the way the last couple day's. I have learned more since reading your thread on the main page and discussion of this storm than I have in a long time. The way you use the .gif's and label different features on the images is helpful for people like me who still have lot's to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 How big is big? Accums? Euro is def >6" for BOS conservatively...during periods of lighter precip, I'm not sure how well it would accumulate right there on the water...but they get it good overnight tomorrow night...best time to get it too avoiding March 1st sun angle. They get over an inch of qpf as all snow, but taking into account some BL issues when its lighter, hard to say just what the final accums would be. Its got BOS hovering in the 32-34F temp range. Though it might end up a touch colder than that in reality with the high where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is def >6" for BOS conservatively...during periods of lighter precip, I'm not sure how well it would accumulate right there on the water...but they get it good overnight tomorrow night...best time to get it too avoiding March 1st sun angle. They get over an inch of qpf as all snow, but taking into account some BL issues when its lighter, hard to say just what the final accums would be. Its got BOS hovering in the 32-34F temp range. Though it might end up a touch colder than that in reality with the high where it is. So we get at least one snow storm this year it seems? Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow. this has certainly turned into a Ma. storm. Does it give Ct. anything? yes we get a decent front end not as much QPF as NAM/GFS.. then part two about the same with a mix for CT start looking at RUC for front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Btw...Happy Leap Year everyone! One of my brother's friends turns 6 today. BOS NAM - 1.5"+ GFS - 1.00-1.25" EURO - 1.00" Pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow. this has certainly turned into a Ma. storm. Does it give Ct. anything? CT still gets their front end stuff...like a good 3-5" burst tomorrow afternoon. N CT might actually flip back to snow overnight tomorrow night when that 2nd pulse comes in as the Euro is bringing the 0C line back down to near HFD from the MA border during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro def caved toward the NAM...its a big storm for BOS...still not that great with the front end initial burst...much better for CT and W MA...but it goes to town overnight. With the RGEM, UK, GGEM, NAM and SREFs all pretty much in agreement on solid QPF you kinda figured it had to cave. Really increases the confidence on going pretty boldly for something like 4-8" even for Boston and maybe even 6-12" out around ORH wouldn't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 How did it do with area's north of ORH like CON and up toward dendrite to dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Im pretty close to staying all snow here if it stays that way balls to the wall tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 How did it do with area's north of ORH like CON and up toward dendrite to dryslot? CON is maybe 0.80-0.85" and dryslot maybe a tenth less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Im pretty close to staying all snow here if it stays that way balls to the wall tomorrow! Looks decent for us then? Doesnt as cold out now as I had hoped and dps already creeping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 CON is maybe 0.80-0.85" and dryslot maybe a tenth less. Thanks Will, I'm thinking Gray has a good map then at 6-8 for here. Not so sure we get 10:1 ratios, so I'll go low and if thing's turn out better then it's always nice to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 CT still gets their front end stuff...like a good 3-5" burst tomorrow afternoon. N CT might actually flip back to snow overnight tomorrow night when that 2nd pulse comes in as the Euro is bringing the 0C line back down to near HFD from the MA border during that time. Good to hear. Definitely expecting a flip over to a mix or even plain rain, but I'm happy to hear the front burst is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 For better ratios, typically you want to see the -12 through -18 degree Celsius column saturated in the atmosphere. It is this range where you normally have full dendrite ice crystals forming, which generally produce the best snowfall ratios. What is sounds like Matt Noyes was trying to say is that that the entire column of the atmosphere might be below freezing, but the moisture does not reach up into this "snow growth" zone where the majority of ice crystals produced are dendrites. In this case if the moisture dries up somewhere between -5 to -10 degrees Celsius, you can expect to see more needles and prisms. Thanks! I was looking between -10 to -20C, for example at 30h on the 0Z NAM... the saturation in the dgz (about 500-600mb) doesn't look all that different in BOS vs. ORH. The differences are more pronounced on the 0Z GFS where ORH is significantly more saturated than BOS in the dgz. In any case, this is academic. Looks like Euro has joined the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.