weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Harv says 2-6 for BOS. 5-10 n and w if 495. That's your número uno's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 i'll go with the meteorologist over the weenie any day...maybe the meteorologists are a little bit better at seeing things that a weenie can't? which met? one is calling for a coating inside 128, others for 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Still can't figure out the disparity between GFS and NAM on this one. I won't blame Pete B, or Matt N if they are off. The data doesn't seem to be any good. Sounds like a lot of wish-casting going on right now. My wish: Let any accumulating snow come in after the evening commute so there are less accidents. Go with an rgem euro compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Harv says 2-6 for BOS. 5-10 n and w if 495. That's your número uno's forecast. seems reasonable, looks like 4-7" for my area, hope for more but going with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Harv says 2-6 for BOS. 5-10 n and w if 495. That's your número uno's forecast. Not his best winter let's be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Not his best winter let's be honest This has not been an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This from Harvey Leonard at WCVB...just posted on FB....I know Harvey very well and He's the best Met in Boston....night and day between him and Pete B...for this upcoming event... WCVB Channel 5 Boston Harvey here...We are in for a long duration winter storm beginning Wed. afternoon and not ending completely until overnight Thursday Night. It should feature snow more than anything else, but late Wed. Nt. into Thu. morning, some sleet or rain may mix in at times... also anytime there is a dropoff in intensity of the snow, some rain could mix in. That's why snowfall totals are so difficult with this storm...higher amounts (5-10"+) likely north and west of Boston, 2-6" likely south of Boston...1-3" on Cape Cod...all subject to change...J.C. with an update on The Eyeopener from 4:30 a.m. to 7 a.m. Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 To Mattb65.......Yeah but the coast is not next to 128...WTF is he doing....Why so conservative...all models are cold..and a ton of qpf..man is he gonna bust!...seriously flawed there...just saying! I also think he'll bust but if you rip and read the GFS - this changes to rain out to most of 128 on the GFS verbatim - check the soundings for yourself after hr 36. It would be a sloppy 2-4" followed by 34-36 degree rasn mix for most of metro boston verbatim on the GFS. Edit: Here's the crappy clown map to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Harvey's forecast = what I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 My latest thoughts: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/local4.html Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Speaking of going with meteorologists, all (including Taunton) but one are going for futility buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Not looking too good here, hoping for 2-4. MA looks like a great spot at the moment though, especially if the NAM end sup being right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Any word on the GGEM/UKMET/RGEM? Usually someone has posted something by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Any word on the GGEM/UKMET/RGEM? Usually someone has posted something by now. RGEM and UKMET are good dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It just seems that MNoyes and Pete B....are on the same page here re snow totals..I don't get it..all of the models trended much colder tonight..and whether you have surface temps at freezing or just above,your gonna get evaporational cooling and with a NE wind and a deepening low Thursday..where in the world do you get rain...your gonna get the freezing line drop to the coast...I can see the SE coast getting a change over..but it would be brief....I don't know what to say..except that there will be some big time bust tomorrow by a few local mets...not naming names..Anyways I gotta hit the hay...long day tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 RGEM and UKMET are good dumps. Well that's settled. 4-7" here is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Great discussion and forecast Phil! Are you going to Northeast Storm Conference now that you're at Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Great discussion and forecast Phil! Are you going to Northeast Storm Conference now that you're at Albany? Yep! I'll be there this Friday. I'm not presenting this year (my research is just in the beginning stages), but I hope to attend as many talks as I can fit in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yep! I'll be there this Friday. I'm not presenting this year (my research is just in the beginning stages), but I hope to attend as many talks as I can fit in! Great! It looks like there are lot of interesting talks this year. Hopefully I'll run into you at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well with the GFS caving at least a good amount...I really don't see how we get less than 5-8" here in ORH...even the 12z Euro was about 5-6"...and I'd be surprised if it came in like 12z again...I expect a bit of a bump up...especially in the snowfall for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So does the GFS caving take away the leg that PB and Harvey were standing on about mostly rain in and around BOS through 128? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So does the GFS caving take away the leg that PB and Harvey were standing on about mostly rain in and around BOS through 128? Didn't Harvey have like 4 or 5" for BOS? PB had 0". At any rate, the GFS def is colder than it was and keeps the mid-levels cold enough for snow in BOS the whole way now...it does get a tad warm in the BL at times...but the GFS is expected to be warmest in this regard since its cruddy resolution will have the hardest time dealing with the low level cold drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So does the GFS caving take away the leg that PB and Harvey were standing on about mostly rain in and around BOS through 128? I also think he'll bust but if you rip and read the GFS - this changes to rain out to most of 128 on the GFS verbatim - check the soundings for yourself after hr 36. It would be a sloppy 2-4" followed by 34-36 degree rasn mix for most of metro boston verbatim on the GFS. Edit: Here's the crappy clown map to confirm. Nope. GFS still sux verbatim for 128 relatively speaking of course. (it's all alone though, all other guidance is in the good to very good department) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 WOW! I think its going to rip tomorrow from 1-5pm across southwest half of southern new england and 5-9pm for the northeast half. thats our only shot in ct for good accums but you guys should be pretty excited up north for a long event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Harvey said 2-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What kind of ratios can be expected when the temps in the DGZ are at -10C and warmer. I just looked through the 0Z NAM soundings for CON and I don't really see a lot of less than -10C air that is saturated. Might be more of the flour type snow which would keep ratios lower I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well with the GFS caving at least a good amount...I really don't see how we get less than 5-8" here in ORH...even the 12z Euro was about 5-6"...and I'd be surprised if it came in like 12z again...I expect a bit of a bump up...especially in the snowfall for tomorrow night. Yea I'm very intrigued on what the ECMWF will show... one would think that it would get more agressive with total precip, but its been on the dry side compared the rest of the guidance for some time now. My hunch is that its more moist, but not nearly to the extent that the GFS and NAM are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 While we wait for Euro... Can someone comment on Matt Noyes' analysis: " The temperature though a deep layer of the snow-producing cloud layer over New England is sub-freezing - warm enough for snow - but not cold enough for efficiently accumulating snow crystals. Rather, the temperature aloft is supportive of some of the worst kind of accumulating flakes that can develop. As a result, I've kept amounts reasonable." Snow, but the worst kind of accumulating flakes. What layer is this? And if it's sub-freezing throughout the column, how cold does it need to be? I tried to find cross-sections of Oct 31 when snow flakes were flying for hours but had hard time accumulating in Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What kind of ratios can be expected when the temps in the DGZ are at -10C and warmer. I just looked through the 0Z NAM soundings for CON and I don't really see a lot of less than -10C air that is saturated. Might be more of the flour type snow which would keep ratios lower I'd imagine. Snow growth will probably be fairly poor at times...esp if SG region has hard time saturating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 While we wait for Euro... Can someone comment on Matt Noyes' analysis: " The temperature though a deep layer of the snow-producing cloud layer over New England is sub-freezing - warm enough for snow - but not cold enough for efficiently accumulating snow crystals. Rather, the temperature aloft is supportive of some of the worst kind of accumulating flakes that can develop. As a result, I've kept amounts reasonable." Snow, but the worst kind of accumulating flakes. What layer is this? And if it's sub-freezing throughout the column, how cold does it need to be? I tried to find cross-sections of Oct 31 when snow flakes were flying for hours but had hard time accumulating in Boston metro. I think this kind of goes hand in hand with the question I just asked as well. I know closer to freezing 0C it's hard to get water droplets to form into efficient snow flakes and there's a point where if it's too cold they will just fall as tiny little plates or rods. Theres a sweet spot in between that allows for the perfect dedrites to form. And during that Halloween storm there was perfect dendrites falling (in certain areas, maybe not where you were in Boston?). I'm just not sure what that temperate in the dendrite growth zone is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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