Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,587
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Obi-One-Marchobi Episode III The Return of the Weenie


HoarfrostHubb

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 876
  • Created
  • Last Reply

best thread title

i'm gonna enjoy walking thru tufts campus tonite after the gym in medford...around midnite...the campus is up at least a hundred feet from the surrounding area...maybe a tad more...in medford.

im sure the winchester hills/ woburn hills ...kinda connected thru arlington heights will see better totals...tonite...even with a mere 200' extra feet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mets (esp Coastal/ORH), been lurking and appreciate your "what could go wrong" analysis for Boston metro. Agree northshore and over to Ray and further West look fantastic. I'm plenty excited about this for Boston metro but want to be vigilant as this unfolds today.

I've looked through myself and as has been stated, the soundings on the 12z nam for kbos are sub-0 the entire column the entire event. So, what are we concerned about? I've seen here and elsewhere:

(1) the BL / marine layer / coastal front too west / Halloween snowstorm redux

(2) poor saturation in dgz / poor snowgrowth

Anything else we're missing? Why did Box snow map come down for Boston metro?

Thoughts on these as HRRR / RUC roll in? Anything on the 12z Euro that can address these concerns?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Someone mentioned the HRRR earlier...I just looked, it's putrid through about 12 hours. Is there another version I'm missing or are these old maps (14z)

I thought the most recent HRRR run (14z) was actually a pretty weenie run. It drops 3-6" for many around SNE with just round 1 and does the constant redevelopment of precip in eastern areas like Scooter was mentioning while the second more substantial batch develops and looks to be heading in later on.

post-1511-0-94447600-1330536702.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought the most recent HRRR run (14z) was actually a pretty weenie run. It drops 3-6" for many around SNE with just round 1 and does the constant redevelopment of precip in eastern areas like Scooter was mentioning while the second more substantial batch develops and looks to be heading in later on.

post-1511-0-94447600-1330536702.png

Yeah that's fine, mine wasn't up to date so I was lagged 2 hours...so it looked like the total precip was much less as it cut off at 0z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Newbie question for you all. How can I tell what type of snow is falling? I was reading earlier that "poor dendrites" were falling from the sky (super weenie flakes I imagine). Just wondering if there's an easy way of distinguishing the various types of snow flakes.

Throw on a dark jacket, put your arm out, and take a close look at what sticks to your arm.

If you see "needles" (or columns), it's indicative of temps in the SGZ of around -12 C... generally you want them colder to promote better growth ... snow stacks very well when there are dendrites or aggregates of dendrites - these shapes stack up and allow a lot of air into the snowpack, hence the proverbial "fluff factor".

There are other shapes, too, like plates, but generally you want the classic "snowflake" shape for best mileage out of your QPF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the snow pack …12” of it …should likely survive the Saturday warm push because that latter system is moving so fast that it’s already CAA by Sunday morning…

But … that said, the extended teleconnectors and operational trends … should be obliterating what is left, and heading on into warmer times/early spring not too long after anyway beyond that.

This is the 3rd “book ender” winter I have experienced since moving to New England some 30 years ago. It’s basically meaning when it snows hard early, and late, either by a single big event respectively or perhaps a series, but nothing or not much by comparison in the middle. 1992-1993, 1996-1997, now 2011-2012. Obviously October is ludicrously early, and March 1 is not ludicrously late – still, then and now more than less ear-mark entry and exists of the cold season.

It’s enough to make me wonder if there is something to that – physically – and then asking what that is. In 1992 we had that big December historic bomb…then relative quiescence settled in until the Super Storm in mid March. In 1996 (Dec) we had a couple of back to back 9”, and then a foot within 36 hours in an epic double banger…again, relative quiescence sets in and we waited to get the April 1 bomb. This year, October… now we are looking at a 12-18” deal after an rather extreme version of the former. 3 examples in a 30 year set is 10% of the time; may not be a large number, but 10% is a .1 correlation coefficient and which is more than 0.0 It may be interesting to go back further over 100 years or more, and see how many other book-ender winters took place, and then the obvious questions regarding long-lead teleconnectors (air and sea coupled statistics) to seek out any commonalities.

Btw, I gotta think by now that the NAM is probably going to score coup on this one, but we'll see -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...