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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode III The Return of the Weenie


HoarfrostHubb

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BOX noting colder trend others have noted

1015 AM UPDATE...

12Z NAM MOVED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED FOR

THE 06Z RUN . PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SOME RAIN IN THE COASTAL

PLAIN GIVEN MILD TEMPS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS

TEMPS WET BULB TO 32-34 DEGREES. SNOW MAY HAVE A DIFFCULT TIME

ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE

FREEZING TEMPS SO MUCH OF THE ACCUM HERE MAY BE CONFINED TO COLDER

SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS.

PRECIP MOVING IN A BIT QUICKER AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION

FROM NOON TO 3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.

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BOX noting colder trend others have noted

1015 AM UPDATE...

12Z NAM MOVED BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED FOR

THE 06Z RUN . PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SOME RAIN IN THE COASTAL

PLAIN GIVEN MILD TEMPS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS

TEMPS WET BULB TO 32-34 DEGREES. SNOW MAY HAVE A DIFFCULT TIME

ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE

FREEZING TEMPS SO MUCH OF THE ACCUM HERE MAY BE CONFINED TO COLDER

SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS.

PRECIP MOVING IN A BIT QUICKER AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION

FROM NOON TO 3 PM FROM WEST TO EAST.

that might be the more telling part. classic SWFE move there.

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Only about 1/2in here back in the finger lakes in Ithaca, NY. Snow already starting to tapper off to flurries. Definitely a lot less QPF than expected for the first batch!

As Colucci would say "I'm fond of saying it doesn't snow well in Ithaca on a southeast wind".

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If you guys have a sec, take a look at the HRRR. It has that mid level warmfront look with saturation and the low level flow bringing in Atlantic moisture from the east. That's what I referred to earlier by helping areas out perhaps in between batches of precip. That would be good for the interior and ORH hills if that happens.

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The for a couple runs in a row now the RUC is trying to really re-strengthen the front end thump as it moves into interior SNE...I have no idea what its doing since other guidance really doesn't support it.

I wonder if it's picking up on a little deformation area or something along the H7 WF?

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