danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm not get 16" and Bob isn't getting a foot. If anything, it shows the electrical tub potential very close to you. Besides, it's probably a good bet to be a little cautious in areas on the fence. Will and Ray look great for now...hoping this area does well. If we had a cold airmass, I'd easily be over a foot with ocean effect stuff and CF. If this happened in the heart of winter (a real winter, lol), we'd see 10-15, lollies to 18-20 with OE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 My one fear is your earlier comment. That second batch of precip could be very convective and perhaps stay over CT/RI and SE MA. Basically in areas that have questionable mid level and boundary levels. I just hope it can move and blossom overhead, rather than stay congealed and not really move to the north, well into SNE. I think that is my biggest concern. I hope the Euro and NAM are right. yeah well at least the euro has pretty deep moisture well up into C and NNE so seems like it wants to have some action north. i'm sure you saw...it actually closes off an 850 low around 12z south of MVY and starts to crank a solid easterly llj into BOS/ORH on north. some of the players are definitely there for this to be pretty good for your area on N and W. establishing that low-level feed of moisture and draining in colder air - that's essentially the first time we've seen that since halloween. areas further s and w definitely have mid-level temp issues. even the euro punches an 800mb warm layer nearly to the pike overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Why? dude...if there's 10 inches at the canal and a foot and half in SE MA...something has gone terribly wrong (or right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 dude...if there's 10 inches at the canal and a foot and half in SE MA...something has gone terribly wrong (or right). The one thing on that map I wouldn't be surprised at being right is if Bob gets more snow than Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 looking at soundings, nobody gets good snow growth until you get into vt/nh Yeah, but kind of a moot point when you're dealing with 1"+ QPF. And SG gets better towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 LOL..no not really,,but Phil has been down on this event for days while most other mets are excited for it..and I'm just wondering why..esp swith guidance getting colder. i'm not down on it. it'll be good for some areas, no doubt. i don't think guidance is really trending colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Good Luck up there guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 yeah well at least the euro has pretty deep moisture well up into C and NNE so seems like it wants to have some action north. i'm sure you saw...it actually closes off an 850 low around 12z south of MVY and starts to crank a solid easterly llj into BOS/ORH on north. some of the players are definitely there for this to be pretty good for your area on N and W. establishing that low-level feed of moisture and draining in colder air - that's essentially the first time we've seen that since halloween. areas further s and w definitely have mid-level temp issues. even the euro punches an 800mb warm layer nearly to the pike overnight. Yeah that looked pretty sweet on the euro. I'm mildly optimistic, but it's almost like finding out what can go wrong is a routine thing nowadays..lol. As long as the inflow from 950-850...even 800 or so was more easterly, that will keep the echoes going and develop them more. If that happens, temps cool at the surface. Having the mid level warm front nearby and saturation at that level helps too, regardless of the second batch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, Duluth is just getting smoked right now. SN+, E wind 35 gusts to 47! so it would seem http://northernimage...y/6296275_PRyHM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Coming up with a final snow map. Bumped up snowfall for most areas, not all though. Sorry LL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 First flakes have arrived on the scene here. Definitely those small flakes that typically come at the beginning of a storm. I'm going to be walking a very fine line here tonight in terms of snow vs. sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 gfs is coming in slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 temps must either start to crash soon or its going to start as a cold rain down here. sitting around 38-37 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 temps must either start to crash soon or its going to start as a cold rain down here. sitting around 38-37 currently A lot of the CP in that area of SE MA will prob start as a few drops...but it should flip to snow very quickly once the precip comes down with any meaningful intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 gfs is pretty skimpy for ct with the waa push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 temps must either start to crash soon or its going to start as a cold rain down here. sitting around 38-37 currently Evaporational/Diabatic cooling FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Todd Gutner @ToddWBZ New data suggests bigger snow for area, watch wbz-tv at noon for new snow map. This will easily be biggest storm of season 4 Boston. #wbz Seems Boston Met's are starting to come in line with what the met's on here have been saying since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 A lot of the CP in that area of SE MA will prob start as a few drops...but it should flip to snow very quickly once the precip comes down with any meaningful intensity. hopefully your right, would like to see the yearly snowfall in the double digits. Getting ready for the slop though, All the local mets are talking c-2, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS sucks back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Foxboro Flattener Taunton Terrorizer MQE Musher Let's see who gets more, me or them, lol Tolland Teaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS sucks back here. Its God awful for all of Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS still loving tonight for the MA pike corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah that looked pretty sweet on the euro. I'm mildly optimistic, but it's almost like finding out what can go wrong is a routine thing nowadays..lol. As long as the inflow from 950-850...even 800 or so was more easterly, that will keep the echoes going and develop them more. If that happens, temps cool at the surface. Having the mid level warm front nearby and saturation at that level helps too, regardless of the second batch of precip. it's good to see the precip fields responding too. i can't say for certain, but i think last night's euro was the first one that really hammered out some good solid precip in a 6hr window really anywhere in SNE. at BOS the 6 hr period ending 12z is now up to .42" - those numbers were all like .12 to .24 type of stuff earlier in the week - and were best with the initial thump. it's reversed now with the second wave being better. it has another .42 following during the day too - most before 18z. and given the mid-levels actually start to cool during the day on Thu...it's not really a race against the clock either. i don't know...definitely optimistic as long as the SSTs don't hurt YBY. but some OK pressure falls happening S of BID and MVY and that high, maybe enough to keep the wind more 060 or 040 or something. maybe logan verbatim struggles but just off the water is fine?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS coming along nicely. Sorry to the SW CT folks though. BOS metro deserves this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS sucks back here. It's sucked since we started tracking this storm..it's going to get emabarrassed again by the Euro..and even worse embarrassed by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 temps must either start to crash soon or its going to start as a cold rain down here. sitting around 38-37 currently This is probably more for the obs thread but be sure to check the wet bulb. While it may initially be rain if it's light. If it has any intensity you'd wetbulb down to around 30-31 degrees there with dews running in the teens for pretty much the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS sucks back here. yeah it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 gfs is close to being mostly snow for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 it's good to see the precip fields responding too. i can't say for certain, but i think last night's euro was the first one that really hammered out some good solid precip in a 6hr window really anywhere in SNE. at BOS the 6 hr period ending 12z is now up to .42" - those numbers were all like .12 to .24 type of stuff earlier in the week - and were best with the initial thump. it's reversed now with the second wave being better. it has another .42 following during the day too - most before 18z. and given the mid-levels actually start to cool during the day on Thu...it's not really a race against the clock either. i don't know...definitely optimistic as long as the SSTs don't hurt YBY. but some OK pressure falls happening S of BID and MVY and that high, maybe enough to keep the wind more 060 or 040 or something. maybe logan verbatim struggles but just off the water is fine?? Yeah I think the winds will back later tonight and tomorrow which will help. Any CF to my NW will move southeast and I'm hoping to cash in with east winds aloft overrunning the colder air near the surface, after any meaningful precip moves northeast of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS makes me confident about this map. Again, sorry to the HFD area. Congrats Will to Ray to Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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