powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah that would suggest 1.25" qpf in the Berks and E. ORH Co. but everywhere in between at .25" qpf. lol that would be the mother of all downslopping. I should have specified that is only a 24 hour product... there's a more general 1/4-1/2" QPF that falls before that over pretty much all of SNE before that map. The second half of the system seems more easterly flow orographically dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs have quite the gradient near the MA/CT border and into BOS. Nude on one side, toaster bath on the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Will Tim Kelley's 33 33 33 concerns still have merit? ie is there going to be decent wind out of this paste job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 definitely looks to be a very narrow E/W line somewhere in the central part of SNE between a couple/few inches and a pretty darn good event. i think BOX map is a pretty good starting point. That line pretty much runs right over my house or maybe just NW. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Channel 22 out of Springfield is going 5-8" outside of the valley, 3-6 within. Channel 40 is going 6-10+ outside and the same 3-6 in the lower valley. They have kevin on the cusp of the 1-3/3-6. Of course, since he's not part of their demographic, I'm sure what happens there is just "noise" on their map (similar to how they depict NYS and southern ORH). Channell 22 has updated their map. What's changed since the 6am map? Totals look the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs have quite the gradient near the MA/CT border and into BOS. Nude on one side, toaster bath on the other. that could be pretty legit, imo. so much depends on what happens with the 2nd event late tonight and tomorrow AM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this is one of those setups where Foster RI with its little hill rise from the CP in RI always does well while I get some spillover, those maps show that well Yeah I was wondering if that's what that maximum over the CT/RI border was from in your area. Don't know the terrain but would've thought the ORH Hills enhancement would've traveled more down into the Woodstock/Union area but I guess that area is more of on the western side of the hills? The model takes the enhancement down into your neck of the woods instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago i'd hit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Foxboro Flattener Taunton Terrorizer MQE Musher Let's see who gets more, me or them, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 If that happened, I'd wear a t-shirt to the next GTG saying "clown maps for life." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 that could be pretty legit, imo. so much depends on what happens with the 2nd event late tonight and tomorrow AM too. Yeah that scares me a bit, because so much is riding on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah I was wondering if that's what that maximum over the CT/RI border was from in your area. Don't know the terrain but would've thought the ORH Hills enhancement would've traveled more down into the Woodstock/Union area but I guess that area is more of on the western side of the hills? The model takes the enhancement down into your neck of the woods instead. That sudden rise in the Topo with an easterly component wind has over the years made Foster RI weenie heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I should have specified that is only a 24 hour product... there's a more general 1/4-1/2" QPF that falls before that over pretty much all of SNE before that map. The second half of the system seems more easterly flow orographically dominated. Gotcha'. I wasn't getting worried lol. I'm pretty sure I'll still be happy tomorrow with our totals in Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Will Tim Kelley's 33 33 33 concerns still have merit? ie is there going to be decent wind out of this paste job? I'll ask him for ya, Dave... haha. Meeting up in a half hour for some runs. Enjoy the nowcast SNE... looks good and should be a sweet night to finally watch it snow. This is better than partly cloudy and 42F isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago 10-12 would have me ballz deep. This is like the good ole days where it used to snow..everyone except Ryan is in a good mood..and weenies are just flying thru the air. It's been a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Im curious to see what happens theres still alot of hanging branches from the October storm that have weakened even more and have been dropping threw the winter and add heavy snow on them now i think there will be some issues Will Tim Kelley's 33 33 33 concerns still have merit? ie is there going to be decent wind out of this paste job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 that could be pretty legit, imo. so much depends on what happens with the 2nd event late tonight and tomorrow AM too. Yeah, the Ma./Ct. border looks to be right where the battle ground sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 That sudden rise in the Topo with an easterly component wind has over the years made Foster RI weenie heaven. Salty Brine: No school Foster/Gloucester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So close but i still think anyone just north of hartford will be fine Yeah, the Ma./Ct. border looks to be right where the battle ground sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago It's a little less clowny if you use the Kuchera maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'll ask him for ya, Dave... haha. Meeting up in a half hour for some runs. Enjoy the nowcast SNE... looks good and should be a sweet night to finally watch it snow. This is better than partly cloudy and 42F isn't it? And tell him that Matt Noyes has an ice nuclei fetish as well...lol Yeah, we had so many above freezing days (and...shudder...nights) that a real snow event is precious this season. Enjoy your day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Is Pete b still going coating to 1 for boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 10-12 would have me ballz deep. This is like the good ole days where it used to snow..everyone except Ryan is in a good mood..and weenies are just flying thru the air. It's been a long time Hartford does o.k. on that map. (I'm assuming that's where Ryan lives) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That line pretty much runs right over my house or maybe just NW. Close call. aside from the surface temps...your area looks better and better though as that second surge could really benefit you. at least there isn't screaming onshore flow...it gets cranking a bit but it's not 30 knots or anything so at least you shouldn't jump to like 36F. and really, the mid-levels stay pretty darn cold over you. should easily be your best event of the winter, one-way-or-the-other though (famous last words ) i'd think. if you can't grab 4" out of this, this truly is the worst of the worst winters ever. i think Will has a tough call for some of his southern clientscould be right on the edge of a solid event vs a kind of crappy 24 hour bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago hey, that big red blob is right over my house...JACK POT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Lol...BOX p-n-c has me getting 6-13... nice range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I could be wrong but I thought the NAM clown maps did pretty darn well for the October storm, if not under estimated it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I knew there was a reason I called these clown maps years ago Isothermal snowbomb IMBY. LOL. Bring it. Blow up image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 aside from the surface temps...your area looks better and better though as that second surge could really benefit you. at least there isn't screaming onshore flow...it gets cranking a bit but it's not 30 knots or anything so at least you shouldn't jump to like 36F. and really, the mid-levels stay pretty darn cold over you. should easily be your best event of the winter, one-way-or-the-other though (famous last words ) i'd think. if you can't grab 4" out of this, this truly is the worst of the worst winters ever. i think Will has a tough call for some of his southern clientscould be right on the edge of a solid event vs a kind of crappy 24 hour bleh. My one fear is your earlier comment. That second batch of precip could be very convective and perhaps stay over CT/RI and SE MA. Basically in areas that have questionable mid level and boundary levels. I just hope it can move and blossom overhead, rather than stay congealed and not really move to the north, well into SNE. I think that is my biggest concern. I hope the Euro and NAM are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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