ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I agree. That's a good spot right now. Someone is going to get smoked to the left of the CF up there I think...even during the stuff on Thursday, they could get a nice onshore flow with that really good cold tuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm worried about the increasing sun angle and the coastal front limiting snow totals here. You are going to be banned from this forum too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It'd be hilarious if someone up here ended up above normal for the season despite a near record low DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 AKT? lol LOL I don't think I've ever seen a snow hole over S VT. Funniest of clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Someone is going to get smoked to the left of the CF up there I think...even during the stuff on Thursday, they could get a nice onshore flow with that really good cold tuck. I know, I could see that front hung up just to my NW for a time. I think with such a good high, the CF doesn't get too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It'd be hilarious if someone up here ended up above normal for the season despite a near record low DJF. Concord is only down by 10" It's possible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice I agree. That's a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Love it--that drops me in a qpf screw zone! lol Like I said, it doesn't make sense to me. I think the NAM had you guys about 1"+ QPF all snow, and that clown map has about 7" OTG for you. Those maps suck, and that doesn't seem to make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 No big changes. Added a little in eastern MA / SE NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Concord is only down by 10" It's possible lol Simply unreal - what a way to run an average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 To what degree wuld folks consider the NAM's timing with it's projected outcome? It looks like things will get moving in here sooner than it depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I agree. That's a good spot right now. NAM/Euro both don't switch us over to rain at all after looking over the NAM soundings. There's a brief period where we get to like 34ish at the surface for 2-3 hrs before the CF collapses back to just E of us. I find it hard to believe since it seems the SREF snow probs have us right on the edge for 4+ and lower probs for 4+ than yesterday. If I had to make a call I think the SREF mean might be pretty good at around 7". Gut call do you think we switch over? It seems the MLs cool off as the event goes on so it seems even if we switch to a rasn mix we'd probably switch back over to snow afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's a catch 22 because some will get screwed while it could be good for someone else. For our area, the trend in developing precip late tonight was nice to see. That limits cooling and allows better rates to last through the morning. Daytime insolation is an issue if rates are very light. I'd favor the area from Will over to Ray as well right now for the best snows. As the mid-levels redevlop around this area we will dry out, while that area will have the added benefit of the inflow from the ocean to enhance this. I agree on the BL temps. If we can get precip to fall hard enough I'd favor higher amounts. I'll still stand by my 2-4" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Might need to be upped in E MA/Lowered in WMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 helluva way to break a futility record, might as well go out in style RayRay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, Duluth is just getting smoked right now. SN+, E wind 35 gusts to 47! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM/Euro both don't switch us over to rain at all after looking over the NAM soundings. There's a brief period where we get to like 34ish at the surface for 2-3 hrs before the CF collapses back to just E of us. I find it hard to believe since it seems the SREF snow probs have us right on the edge for 4+ and lower probs for 4+ than yesterday. If I had to make a call I think the SREF mean might be pretty good at around 7". Gut call do you think we switch over? It seems the MLs cool off as the event goes on so it seems even if we switch to a rasn mix we'd probably switch back over to snow afterwards. I'm not terribly worried about the mid levels to be honest. Maybe briefly it would ping, but it's the boundary layer. I wouldn't mind being where you are on the west side of town and a little elevation. I think you could be mostly snow, but if the temp goes to 33 or so, it may have a tough time sticking when rates are low. So in essence, I think it's the lower levels that are a bigger problem for you and I. If the coastal front limits the time it spends just to the west and north, that will boost totals. I still want to be sure that this congeals like models have. If it that occurs to the north, than it will be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You are going to be banned from this forum too. Lol. I think you'll end up doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hubb Dave Debbie junior is also in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Lol. I think you'll end up doing well. You and the ORH hills are going to get smoked on easterly flow.... same with the eastern Catskills. BTV WRF (take the actual amounts with a grain of salt) but its good at highlighting max areas due to orographics. Look at the maximums near ORH area then big upslope enhancement along the Berk's East Slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, E half of MA gets absolutely ripped on the NAM between 06z and 12z. AAll nighter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Meriden Markham Municipal Airport 38F Wind NE 3mph Dewpoint 20F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'd favor the area from Will over to Ray as well right now for the best snows. As the mid-levels redevlop around this area we will dry out, while that area will have the added benefit of the inflow from the ocean to enhance this. I agree on the BL temps. If we can get precip to fall hard enough I'd favor higher amounts. I'll still stand by my 2-4" imby. Bob what do you think our main precip will end up being if you only think 2-4"? Ice/rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Channell 22 has updated their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You and the ORH hills are going to get smoked on easterly flow.... same with the eastern Catskills. BTV WRF (take the actual amounts with a grain of salt) but its good at highlighting max areas due to orographics. Look at the maximums near ORH area then big upslope enhancement along the Berk's East Slope. LOL, weenie max on MQE. Look at the NAM and sim radar products. That second batch coming up from the Ohio Valley is what the key to the forecast is. The models grab that and refire the snow over SNE. That is key. If something were to go wrong, that batch right there will probably be why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You and the ORH hills are going to get smoked on easterly flow.... same with the eastern Catskills. BTV WRF (take the actual amounts with a grain of salt) but its good at highlighting max areas due to orographics. Look at the maximums near ORH area then big upslope enhancement along the Berk's East Slope. this is one of those setups where Foster RI with its little hill rise from the CP in RI always does well while I get some spillover, those maps show that well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You and the ORH hills are going to get smoked on easterly flow.... same with the eastern Catskills. BTV WRF (take the actual amounts with a grain of salt) but its good at highlighting max areas due to orographics. Look at the maximums near ORH area then big upslope enhancement along the Berk's East Slope. Yeah that would suggest 1.25" qpf in the Berks and E. ORH Co. but everywhere in between at .25" qpf. lol that would be the mother of all downslopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You and the ORH hills are going to get smoked on easterly flow.... same with the eastern Catskills. BTV WRF (take the actual amounts with a grain of salt) but its good at highlighting max areas due to orographics. Look at the maximums near ORH area then big upslope enhancement along the Berk's East Slope. Loving life Scott. Have enjoyed your pics and all the others contributions in the ski thread. It's going to be another awesome few days in the eastern ski world. Go go go. Just had a few renegade flakes and a freshening NE wind here at 2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 definitely looks to be a very narrow E/W line somewhere in the central part of SNE between a couple/few inches and a pretty darn good event. i think BOX map is a pretty good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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