CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thge NAM is close to a lot of snow for extreme NE CT for the 2nd round overnight...it cools the mid-levels. Putnam FTW... TOlland FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Is that some ocean enhancement for Boston tomorrow? Almost looks like an inverted trough, man it just keeps ripping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 wow the NAM is hideous back here. Relatively light rates with a definite cut in QPF. Ugly. Really? It looks like many (most?) have over 1" by 7:00a.m. tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NO, longitude FTW. I'm referring to mid levels. in that case woot woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well the NAM has Boston flushing their futility threat with style if its right...might as well do it in that type of snow rather than garbage....hopefully its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Really? It looks like many (most?) have over 1" by 7:00a.m. tomorrow. The QPF is not in a thump it's a more drawn out and gradual process. Rates suck. It seems like the real excitement may turn out to be eastern areas tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Kevin will want the IJD sounding since it will be colder than his possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 There could be some mild downsloping in the MA part of the CT Valley where an 070 wind comes off of much higher terrain as compared to down in CT...it wont be a lot...but if its a marginal 31-32F snow with lousy snow growth, then something like that could be an annoying difference maker. Unless you're talking up by the VT/NH border, that's not necessarily true. The terrain along the eastern side of the CT River Valley is generally around 500' north of the MA/CT border about 2/3 way through MA. From the MA border south for about 20 miles it's generally around 800' or higher. In fact, one of the highest points along the eastern side of the valley is in CT at around 1100'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z NAM coming in colder than 06z through 12 hours. Yep, looking at the local soundings and there is no pronounced warming in the 800mb area. All levels stay below 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thge NAM is close to a lot of snow for extreme NE CT for the 2nd round overnight...it cools the mid-levels. Loving it..From here NE we rock..From Ryan SW they don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM does break it apart pretty quickly tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Loving it..From here NE we rock..From Ryan SW they don't I think the NAM verbatim for you is a nightmare. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Loving it..From here NE we rock..From Ryan SW they don't It's really close to a thumping for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 WSI RPM clearly shows this ... and flips all of Ct. to pingers by 2:30Z. Initial band weakens as it heads east but then backbuilds over SNE/ENY with moist Easterly flow over tight thermal gradient at 850. This is exactly what I expect to see happen as it's followed in each of these storms recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 32 / 15 DP, NNE winds at kBos SREF plumes mean 7.26" snowfall at 3z (vs. 7.4" at 21z) Euro, 0Z-6Z Nam, 0Z-6Z GFS all show > 1" qpf I'd say 4-6" is conservative for Boston but probably a safe place to start Box and WHDH maps, you'll note WHDH bumped up a little overnight but still conservative OT / "upstream obs": decent tornadoes moved through Missouri and Illinois Big change to the WHDH map. They had almost all of 128 rain last night at 11, 1-3 well out past 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's really close to a thumping for you. that's the potential problem-it's close...a 25 mile shift one way or the other is huge for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I think the NAM verbatim for you is a nightmare. Hope it's wrong. I know it's the NAM, but I thought it was a tough call for his area. It was close to 6 hrs of pings or virtually all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's really close to a thumping for you. Close but no cigar for Kevin. Maybe the GFS will offer more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM does break it apart pretty quickly tomorrow morning. AKT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I know it's the NAM, but I thought it was a tough call for his area. It was close to 6 hrs of pings or virtually all snow. I still don't see him doing much better than 4 or 5". Even if he is able to get a bit tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I see Ryan's point about the first band weakening. That could happen, but I guess the question is how does it regroup as it moves east. I don't expect too much here from the initial band, but I'm hoping it regroups nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Still over an inch QPF for BEast all snow...bombs away for tomorrow lol. Pow pow powdah day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Unless you're talking up by the VT/NH border, that's not necessarily true. The terrain along the eastern side of the CT River Valley is generally around 500' north of the MA/CT border about 2/3 way through MA. From the MA border south for about 20 miles it's generally around 800' or higher. In fact, one of the highest points along the eastern side of the valley is in CT at around 1100'. I think you are talking on a smaller scale than I am...much closer in distance...on an 070 wind in MA CT valley, you have the N ORH hills to the east which spike into the 1400-1500 ft range and the hills in general there are pretty wide in width...nothing like that to the east in CT...especially on a larger continuous chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I still don't see him doing much better than 4 or 5". Even if he is able to get a bit tomorrow am. Yeah I'd still role with that for now. We'll have to see how the rest of thew guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I see Ryan's point about the first band weakening. That could happen, but I guess the question is how does it regroup as it moves east. I don't expect too much here from the initial band, but I'm hoping it regroups nicely. Yeah I think back here that's the concern. If we were still looking at a solid first band possibly overperforming I'd feel a whole lot better. I think less than ideal snow growth and marginal at best mid level temperatures are going to make this a struggle. Move 10 or 15 miles north of the border particularly out east and it's a whole different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That's a nice CF to my east on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Listening to Scott and Ryan's posts to Kevin is like watching the "angel/devil" scene in animal house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Dual maxes over Eastern NY and then again in Eastern NE...plus still has that creepy smiley face up in Quebec.. AKT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah I think back here that's the concern. If we were still looking at a solid first band possibly overperforming I'd feel a whole lot better. I think less than ideal snow growth and marginal at best mid level temperatures are going to make this a struggle. Move 10 or 15 miles north of the border particularly out east and it's a whole different ball game. Kevin will use the Stafford Springs total since that part of town is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This is exactly what I expect to see happen as it's followed in each of these storms recently. The high to the NE is a double edged sword ... you see an amazing radar presentation off to the west but that wave has to dampen as it approaches the confluence. On the other hand, without that high, we'd all be torched in a heartbeat. That said, it's also what creates the Atlantic inflow along I-90 and forces the energy to the south where it can reignite - will have to watch closely where the pressure falls take place tomorrow, perhaps right in YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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