Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 one thing ive noticed is that most models are really showing the precip fall apart as it heads east. the name isnt nearly as robust as it was in prior runs with first wave.. and the RUC is getting less intense every hour with the initial band.. could be the reason for warmer temps initially.. I really dont think anyone in Ct gets more than 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It does show up on the Hi res models..Look at that HRR that was posted. BOX also tosses it out there. Hopefully it isn't an issue for you guys..but it could be somwhat of an annoyance CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PRECIPITATION SHADOW WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. It's all relative... It's always an issue, but it's priced in to our expectations for any event. Only when it's especially bad is it worthy of noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM very warm for CT as well Maybe for you, check the soundings I just posted. IJD is like .5 at 800 in the last one according to text output, near isothermal blue bomb in the hills hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Kevin will want the IJD sounding since it will be colder than his possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 in for long duration 10"+ season finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM very warm for CT as well kev we know the territory, IJD is always warmer and these NAM soundings are right on the blue bomb line. You should be colder. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What a weenie band later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM very warm for CT as well Looking at intellicast radar, alot more rain that one would expect to see. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nam is juiced up for Ct tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 one thing ive noticed is that most models are really showing the precip fall apart as it heads east. the name isnt nearly as robust as it was in prior runs with first wave.. and the RUC is getting less intense every hour with the initial band.. could be the reason for warmer temps initially.. I really dont think anyone in Ct gets more than 2-4" People are ignoring you even though you're a red tagger because they don't want to hear it. Could see this coming, if this system follows the last several the rest of the guidance will trim this first wave out too. Then it's a race for QPF before the 0c gets north. I like a dusting to an inch here near Plymouth, that's all I'm expecting. I see this as one of those deals where the precip has a real hard time pushing NE/E through early tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 wow the NAM is hideous back here. Relatively light rates with a definite cut in QPF. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What a weenie run..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 wow the NAM is hideous back here. Relatively light rates with a definite cut in QPF. Ugly. nice out here, the column crashes colder after sleeting, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What a weenie run..lol. Yeah for people hoping to cash in on wave 2... it's pretty sweet. For us wave 1 folks it's brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Kevin will want the IJD sounding since it will be colder than his possibly. Scott, gun to head, will my flight leave on time???? What an epic storm upcoming! Can we stop talking about NE CT though? I feel like whenever Kevin's on he just keeps asking about his BY so the discussion moves towards that. What a SCOTT ITS at 6 am at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 People are ignoring you even though you're a red tagger because they don't want to hear it. Could see this coming, if this system follows the last several the rest of the guidance will trim this first wave out too. Then it's a race for QPF before the 0c gets north. I like a dusting to an inch here near Plymouth, that's all I'm expecting. I see this as one of those deals where the precip has a real hard time pushing NE/E through early tonight. nobody ignoring him bro. I posted soundings, not all of CT is in the DXR BDL area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 LOL Scooter gets taken behind the woodshed!! Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Scott, gun to head, will my flight leave on time???? What an epic storm upcoming! Can we stop talking about NE CT though? I feel like whenever Kevin's on he just keeps asking about his BY so the discussion moves towards that. What a When is your flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, E half of MA gets absolutely ripped on the NAM between 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nice out here, the column crashes colder after sleeting, wow. Looks like mainly sleet I think for you. Actually Kevin and I are in a total screw zone on the NAM. Congrats out east though toward Boston... they deserve it! Even the south shore gets in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 one thing ive noticed is that most models are really showing the precip fall apart as it heads east. the name isnt nearly as robust as it was in prior runs with first wave.. and the RUC is getting less intense every hour with the initial band.. could be the reason for warmer temps initially.. I really dont think anyone in Ct gets more than 2-4" WSI RPM clearly shows this ... and flips all of Ct. to pingers by 2:30Z. Initial band weakens as it heads east but then backbuilds over SNE/ENY with moist Easterly flow over tight thermal gradient at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Man thats a lot of snow for Boston................weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Kevin will want the IJD sounding since it will be colder than his possibly. You mean his will be colder, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah for people hoping to cash in on wave 2... it's pretty sweet. For us wave 1 folks it's brutal. I have a feeling there could be a pretty good gradient across nrn CT. That's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, E half of MA gets absolutely ripped on the NAM between 06z and 12z. Even Providence could rip some S+ from that band while TOL/BDL are spitting drizzle and pellets. Dumbfounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 You mean his will be colder, correct? NO, longitude FTW. I'm referring to mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Scott, gun to head, will my flight leave on time???? What an epic storm upcoming! Can we stop talking about NE CT though? I feel like whenever Kevin's on he just keeps asking about his BY so the discussion moves towards that. What a LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What a weenie run..lol. Lol...SREFs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thge NAM is close to a lot of snow for extreme NE CT for the 2nd round overnight...it cools the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I have a feeling there could be a pretty good gradient across nrn CT. That's a tough call. I don't know I think here at least the one hope was part 1 overperformed. Now we're cutting that back. Wave 2 is trending colder but the NAM makes it more of an eastern SNE kind of deal which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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