ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ray's area looks like a real weenie spot on the SREFs. Pretty damned good here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs ticked a bit colder AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs ticked a bit colder AESREFHWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Could this be a possible CT River Valley shadow with east flow? Seems possible lol no notable downsloping this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this seems pretty damn close to my thinking for round 1 Yeah, that looks pretty reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Radar has that shield moving pretty quickly. These swfe's always seem to move in and out faster than modeled. Should be a serious front end thump for Ma. though. Killer commute incoming. I'm driving to Newton later this morning so need to really do some radar watching so I don't get screwed heading back out of dodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Could this be a possible CT River Valley shadow with east flow? Seems possible I worry about that more with the big wound up storms, with Dec. 92 being possibly the worst ever shadowing. The much bigger concern for bust potential up here is bad snow growth IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That looks spot on Steve, looks like the meso's have moved north and warmed with round 1, i84 north storm in western ct, 3" for moosup? Yea that is what i am thinking , up the hill in East Killingly to Foster should hit 5-6. Very close however to being bigger, depends on the lift, strong omega will overcome that paltry 800 warm tongue in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 lol no notable downsloping this time. SWFE's don't really downslope the valley do they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I worry about that more with the big wound up storms, with Dec. 92 being possibly the worst ever shadowing. The much bigger concern for bust potential up here is bad snow growth IMO. There could be some mild downsloping in the MA part of the CT Valley where an 070 wind comes off of much higher terrain as compared to down in CT...it wont be a lot...but if its a marginal 31-32F snow with lousy snow growth, then something like that could be an annoying difference maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yea that is what i am thinking , up the hill in East Killingly to Foster should hit 5-6. Very close however to being bigger, depends on the lift, strong omega will overcome that paltry 800 warm tongue in the hills. Obviously on the outside looking in here, but I cant wait to watch the battle between the mid levels and precip intensity and then later tonight against some decent ll cold drainage. Part two is also intriguing for the pike into northern ct..........enjoy the snow Steve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 There could be some mild downsloping in the MA part of the CT Valley where an 070 wind comes off of much higher terrain as compared to down in CT...it wont be a lot...but if its a marginal 31-32F snow with lousy snow growth, then something like that could be an annoying difference maker. Yeah up in MA maybe some impact but here in CT I doubt any shadowing makes a difference. The one difference will be the lower elevations struggle a bit in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 RUC and HRRR are horrible for most of CT except extreme Northern CT. The snow not as heavy as advertised last night, then a quick changeover as 850s go above freezing by 4 or 5pm. which means 700-750 an hour or two before that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 lol no notable downsloping this time. I worry about that more with the big wound up storms, with Dec. 92 being possibly the worst ever shadowing. The much bigger concern for bust potential up here is bad snow growth IMO. It does show up on the Hi res models..Look at that HRR that was posted. BOX also tosses it out there. Hopefully it isn't an issue for you guys..but it could be somwhat of an annoyance CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PRECIPITATION SHADOW WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice Indeed it is. Looks to have the heaviest (at least the first portion) batch slide to Hartford/south. Not sure what we might take away from a timing situation. The GFS was a couple hours faster than the NAM bringing in precipitation. That may be the case looking at this radar. Hopefully it's temps don't follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah SREFs looked nice actually. Ray looks like he'll do real well on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 RUC and HRRR are horrible for most of CT except extreme Northern CT. The snow not as heavy as advertised last night, then a quick changeover as 850s go above freezing by 4 or 5pm. which means 700-750 an hour or two before that.. AWT ... profiles are pretty gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z NAM coming in colder than 06z through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BTW ..everyone can stop wondering where Ray is.. he is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam bumping colder again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It does show up on the Hi res models..Look at that HRR that was posted. BOX also tosses it out there. Hopefully it isn't an issue for you guys..but it could be somwhat of an annoyance CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PRECIPITATION SHADOW WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. It won't be a factor down here. Up in Massachusetts maybe a minor one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam bumping colder again I wonder how many AWT's I can throw out today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BTW ..everyone can stop wondering where Ray is.. he is fine. He was on last night anyway, just didn't post much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yea that is what i am thinking , up the hill in East Killingly to Foster should hit 5-6. Very close however to being bigger, depends on the lift, strong omega will overcome that paltry 800 warm tongue in the hills. I am surprised to see temps in the 395 corridor a shade under 30; I might have a chance of 4+. Speaking of East Killingly, was working at a tower on North Rd, and what a spectacular view from up there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I wonder how many AWT's I can throw out today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 AWT Seem to be holding steady on a 1" + mean for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM very warm for CT as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Man I wish we could hold this off until after 2:00 today..but no dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I wonder how many AWT's I can throw out today? kev we know the territory, IJD is always warmer and these NAM soundings are right on the blue bomb line. You should be colder. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 He was on last night anyway, just didn't post much. He's confused... he wanted futility so bad that he doesn't know what to think now. I don't think his inner weenie will refuse 6-10, just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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