Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Looks like 2-4 with maybe 5" for round 1, AWT. What are you basing that off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice for you guys but sort of blah here. 2-4" northern CT (4-6 far northwest) with 1-2 south of HFD. Yeah well I don't quite buy those amounts here, but would be nice. I think part of the question mark here is the coastal front. If my winds stay NE, than maybe we can talk bigger amounts...but I think east winds will probably limit that a bit. I feel like Ray will do quite well finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Somebody has got to keep the weenies in check I'm looking at the BUFKIT from 06z NAM and it has rain from 10pm to 3am overnight tonight. It should be able to change back over (like I alluded to in my map I made last night) but there is no way they stay all snow with these kind of profiles. That's going to ultimately cut down on totals. I feel like that would be sleet even though bufkit says rain...prob because it has a sfc temp of like 33F...but that is a pretty deep layer below freezing just off the deck under the warm tongue edit: I guess if it comes down really light on thaty sounding it would be more of a drizzle or very light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Man its warm out already 37, feels and smells like rain..............good luck up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 What are you basing that off of? Just an educated guess. I do realize the euro was coldest and flipped you back to snow before dawn tomorrow so you have the chance of your 4-7" or whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah well I don't quite buy those amounts here, but would be nice. I think part of the question mark here is the coastal front. If my winds stay NE, than maybe we can talk bigger amounts...but I think east winds will probably limit that a bit. I feel like Ray will do quite well finally. At least the NAM shows winds veering from 90 deg tonight to 60 or 50deg tomorrow morning. Better for BOS. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Just an educated guess. I do realize the euro was coldest and flipped you back to snow before dawn tomorrow so you have the chance of your 4-7" or whatever it is. That's all we ask. I do think I'll sleet when the precip lightens..but shouldn't be hard to rip down a few more inches overnight twds dawn as it flips back to snow..probably all the way down to HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 At least the NAM shows winds veering from 90 deg tonight to 60 or 50deg tomorrow morning. Better for BOS. Close call. I still have the "what can go wrong" attitude..lol. I feel good about the suburbs just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I just struggle to see how even if we flip to IP/some other mix around 11 PM, we only get 2-4" in 9-10 hours. That's only .2 to .4 or so inches an hour on average...the precip rates are really going to suck that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That's all we ask. I do think I'll sleet when the precip lightens..but shouldn't be hard to rip down a few more inches overnight twds dawn as it flips back to snow..probably all the way down to HFD lol I'd say that's has a low chance of occurring but there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I still have the "what can go wrong" attitude..lol. I feel good about the suburbs just inland. Yeah Ray is in a good spot. I think him to Will are in a good spot for 6-10 points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Some of these surface temps don't bode well for a fast accumulation in most of CT and in the Pioneer Valley. Dewpoints (22 here) will help with things, but there must be some warm ground in a number of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 That's all we ask. I do think I'll sleet when the precip lightens..but shouldn't be hard to rip down a few more inches overnight twds dawn as it flips back to snow..probably all the way down to HFD Well we'll see. There is a pesky warm layer at 800mb that will not go away. It would be nice if that happened, because it would be better up this way too. At least you'll be cold. Should be wintry no matter how you slice it where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Scooter Storm! Man, Euro looks awesome up that way........enjoy the snow Boston metro, you deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ride the mesos like Wiz rides a stiff weenie, and as Brian says the Euro is a meso. 4-6 seems good for NCT, colder and higher initial thumpidity dump. All the mesos seem to indicate round 2 is more robust and getting better. Radar is just sick right now, beware an underforecast QPF, Will ,Pete should get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 A recommendation would be to not use any Amercian models,,Just an fyi type of thing I will give you that the ECMWF soundings are colder and support mainly snow so hug all those non-american models today! I feel like that would be sleet even though bufkit says rain...prob because it has a sfc temp of like 33F...but that is a pretty deep layer below freezing just off the deck under the warm tongue edit: I guess if it comes down really light on thaty sounding it would be more of a drizzle or very light rain. We shall see... again these are soundings, not necessarily what we will see in reality. I know I posted the GFS sounding, but I do think taking a NAM/ECMWF combo is probably the way to go thermodynamicly. I had CT bisected between the 2-5" and 5-8" range, so I feel pretty comfortable with those amounts for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Some of these surface temps don't bode well for a fast accumulation in most of CT and in the Pioneer Valley. Dewpoints (22 here) will help with things, but there must be some warm ground in a number of places. Yeah we didn't radiate the way we were supposed to with the alto-stratus clouds that moved in around 03z last night. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I will give you that the ECMWF soundings are colder and support mainly snow so hug all those non-american models today! We shall see... again these are soundings, not necessarily what we will see in reality. I know I posted the GFS sounding, but I do think taking a NAM/ECMWF combo is probably the way to go thermodynamicly. I had CT bisected between the 2-5" and 5-8" range, so I feel pretty comfortable with those amounts for now. I'm thinking 2"-5" most of CT... less along shoreline. HFD 2.5"... BDL 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice Impressive, looks convective in nature. KPIT reported 0.30" last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Nice I don't get how that's going to only deliver 2.5" if it stays all snow through 10-11PM ...forgive my ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Scooter Storm! Man, Euro looks awesome up that way........enjoy the snow Boston metro, you deserve it I think I'll change to rain or mix perhaps, but hopefully several inches can happen. Looks great for Ray and Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Im going with 8 for here I honestly dont think I taint that bad here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 If I were ray - the people asking where he is - I wouldn't have even really taken this event seriously until this 12z model run. We have seen so much variability even in close it's just the heart safe thing to do. 20 minutes to joy or pain because even the nam can usually do okay 6-15 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm thinking 2"-5" most of CT... less along shoreline. HFD 2.5"... BDL 4" I'd be shocked if those totals aren't close to being doubled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this seems pretty damn close to my thinking for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Some of these surface temps don't bode well for a fast accumulation in most of CT and in the Pioneer Valley. Dewpoints (22 here) will help with things, but there must be some warm ground in a number of places. 33.2/24.8 at UMass. Would have liked to seen it a little colder to start. If it's dumping it should drop though, and radar suggests it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs ticked a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this seems pretty damn close to my thinking for round 1 That looks spot on Steve, looks like the meso's have moved north and warmed with round 1, i84 north storm in western ct, 3" for moosup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Could this be a possible CT River Valley shadow with east flow? Seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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