weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So Pumped.have to deql with a calctest but I cant wait to get home. 6-12" incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Channel 22 out of Springfield is going 5-8" outside of the valley, 3-6 within. Channel 40 is going 6-10+ outside and the same 3-6 in the lower valley. They have kevin on the cusp of the 1-3/3-6. Of course, since he's not part of their demographic, I'm sure what happens there is just "noise" on their map (similar to how they depict NYS and southern ORH). The W. Ma TV mets consistently go conservative on snow totals which isn't a bad thing. I talked to one of the ch. 22 guys last summer at a fair and he said he would always prefer to bust too low than too high. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 So Pumped.have to deql with a calctest but I cant wait to get home. 6-12" incoming Luckily it's not a spelling test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Here's a great illustration of what happens between 00z-06z Also note the poor juxtaposition of omega/sgz prior to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The W. Ma TV mets consistently go conservative on snow totals which isn't a bad thing. I talked to one of the ch. 22 guys last summer at a fair and he said he would always prefer to bust too low than too high. lol He must have stolen that forecasting mantra from Kevin Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah I'm glad to battlezone is only for a couple towns in my area. We're toast down here. The SREFs show a decent thump of snow around 12z Thursday at BDL. I do think that even for Union there is some drying around 500/550mb that effectively shuts off snow growth for a period of time so everyone goes to pingers. Whether we can start snowing again is to be determined but I'd feel pretty good about cashing in again if I lived just over the border in Mass. Agreed....I think it may even ping up to my area in north Worcester briefly during that lull...the question is once that next round comes in...some models get the border towns good while others rot the sleet/snow line just north of the MA/CT border for like 6-10 hours. That would/could create a sharp gradient in that area. I do think they'll get some Thursday too with the inverted trough/ULL stuff, but the best def looks to be north...esp NE MA toward Ray. But I could see 1-2" of slowly accumulating snow on Thu for N CT if it turns out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Luckily it's not a spelling test. Ipod typing when half awake ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Agreed....I think it may even ping up to my area in north Worcester briefly during that lull...the question is once that next round comes in...some models get the border towns good while others rot the sleet/snow line just north of the MA/CT border for like 6-10 hours. That would/could create a sharp gradient in that area. I do think they'll get some Thursday too with the inverted trough/ULL stuff, but the best def looks to be north...esp NE MA toward Ray. But I could see 1-2" of slowly accumulating snow on Thu for N CT if it turns out right. It will be interesting to see if the models tick colder with that warm layer near 800mb. I think for the most part round 1 is snow up here (and I think it's not terriby impressive too) but round 2 is very borderline. Right now it's rain/sleet for MBY but we are only a 1C tick away from a snow burst tomorrow morning. So we'll see what happens it's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ipod typing when half awake ftl Damn auto correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm close to going 6-10 for N CT including BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 the sun is out bright and strong right now in efpk spfd mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm close to going 6-10 for N CT including BDL Centimeters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Centimeters? Euro gives N Ct that much. You can't posibly be thinking less than 6 for Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Centimeters? Did you go 6-10" here and 8-12" for the hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm close to going 6-10 for N CT including BDL Allllll aboardd I think you score a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Solid overcast, snow sky, dew at 15, we're primed with the wind draining in from the NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 If I see 3" max out of this I would be surprised. Snow, sleet, and a whole lotta meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro gives N Ct that much. You can't posibly be thinking less than 6 for Union Euro is the coldest model...while it might have the right idea...even a 70/30 compromise with other guidance makes it very precarious for Union. I could see them getting 4-6" if it doesn't quite work out. Union is also in a better spot than just about all of the rest of the state in this...so even if they get 6-8", much of the rest of N CT could get 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is the coldest model...while it might have the right idea...even a 70/30 compromise with other guidance makes it very precarious for Union. I could see them getting 4-6" if it doesn't quite work out. Union is also in a better spot than just about all of the rest of the state in this...so even if they get 6-8", much of the rest of N CT could get 4-5". If 12z models tick colder then we'll see... but right now yeah most of northern CT gets under 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Euro is the coldest model...while it might have the right idea...even a 70/30 compromise with other guidance makes it very precarious for Union. I could see them getting 4-6" if it doesn't quite work out. Union is also in a better spot than just about all of the rest of the state in this...so even if they get 6-8", much of the rest of N CT could get 4-5". Are you just talking globals? The Hi-res stuff from NCEP looked pretty cold as well overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Are you just talking globals? The Hi-res stuff from NCEP looked pretty cold as well overnight. Well I didn't look at the NMM or ARW if you are referring to those...but I am including the NAM in this...Euro was actually solidly colder than the NAM in that N CT region which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Are you just talking globals? The Hi-res stuff from NCEP looked pretty cold as well overnight. Just looking at the Euro now and 850s never go above 0c even for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well I didn't look at the NMM or ARW if you are referring to those...but I am including the NAM in this...Euro was actually solidly colder than the NAM in that N CT region which is surprising. Yeah. Maybe Ryan is correct an models are playing catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well I didn't look at the NMM or ARW if you are referring to those...but I am including the NAM in this...Euro was actually solidly colder than the NAM in that N CT region which is surprising. Yeah will be interesting if it moves colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah will be interesting if it moves colder. NAM definitely came in warmer for the 06z run compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NAM definitely came in warmer for the 06z run compared to the 00z run. Yeah that's what caused some hesitation for me going higher in Union...I was thinking it might come in colder after I saw the 00z Euro, but it ticked a hair warmer. But it wasn't by much...it could easily tick colder again at 12z....we'll find out in a little over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hope no one is surprised at the colder trend . We talked this happening for 2 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 New map coming this afternoon...only changes are to the mass pike region down to kev... 6-10" for orh and outside 128...4-6 at logan and for kev...I think northern ct averages 3-5"...probably not the 5" unless you're above 1k, so kev alone may get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 32 / 15 DP, NNE winds at kBos SREF plumes mean 7.26" snowfall at 3z (vs. 7.4" at 21z) Euro, 0Z-6Z Nam, 0Z-6Z GFS all show > 1" qpf I'd say 4-6" is conservative for Boston but probably a safe place to start Box and WHDH maps, you'll note WHDH bumped up a little overnight but still conservative OT / "upstream obs": decent tornadoes moved through Missouri and Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I will make an obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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