HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:29 AM, powderfreak said: Man that 00z NAM looks pretty big for ORH-Berks and RT 2 in MA up into southern NH and VT. That would be a solid event. Biggest event of the winter and totals close to the October storm. Even cutting NAM totals by 1/3 it's a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:31 AM, Typhoon Tip said: It's just that we've seen the NAM pull this kind of crap at this type of time range before. And I've put out plenty of forecast in the past. jk John. The NAM has been on some kind of weenie tease run the last couple of months. And I know you put out forecasts...now and then. What do you think for Ayer? 6-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hahaha: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:33 AM, HubbDave said: jk John. The NAM has been on some kind of weenie tease run the last couple of months. And I know you put out forecasts...now and then. What do you think for Ayer? 6-7"? I honestly think if you take the Euro's last 4 cycles, add them to the NAM's last 4 cycles and divide by 8 should about do it. I'd sans the GFS entirely when you have a cold CAD scenario requiring a finite mesh to correctly resolve. It's why it has been persistent - one can only see as far as one can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Where is DomNH? He could get crushed and I've only seen him in sports this year. 00z gfs is starting, we'll see if its any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:32 AM, moneypitmike said: Indeed it is. The new SREF's bumped up the mean on the Trail to 1.1". Righteous You realize only the locals understand this vernacular? You always have the elevation to help out but this entire corner of the state does well in these SWFE type set ups. N of Rt 2 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:36 AM, Typhoon Tip said: I honestly think if you take the Euro's last 4 cycles, add them to the NAM's last 4 cycles and divide by 8 should about do it. I'd sans the GFS entirely when you have a cold CAD scenario requiring a finite mesh to correctly resolve. It's why it has been persistent - one can only see as far as one can see. Wait...so Kevin is right? This time. Interesting that the resolution can really affect it's output so much. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Even for bdl the nam had 1.1 qpf snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:36 AM, Happy Valley said: You realize only the locals understand this vernacular? You always have the elevation to help out but this entire corner of the state does well in these SWFE type set ups. N of Rt 2 FTW! Absolutley, Chris. A good one for us me-thinks. In fact, this could be great for almost all in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 gfs out to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 hmmmm Pete Bouchard says the force is not with this storm....http://www1.whdh.com/weather/blog/posts/BO147497/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:36 AM, weatherMA said: Where is DomNH? He could get crushed and I've only seen him in sports this year. 00z gfs is starting, we'll see if its any better. Busy, been lurking. I'm still hesitant to think anything more than 6-8'' here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS is faster than the NAM wiht the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:43 AM, moneypitmike said: GFS is faster than the NAM wiht the onset. Juicier then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm not seeing drastic changes yet thru 24h as compared to the 18z run at 30h. Looking at 5h/7h/8h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:43 AM, cheetah440 said: hmmmm Pete Bouchard says the force is not with this storm....http://www1.whdh.com/weather/blog/posts/BO147497/ Wow he says for the commonwealth people won't have a hard time getting around. He had better hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 gfs will not give in with rd 1 rock steady, for many many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS looks to hold serve for the most part. 2-3" for the pike area through 03z. Quite the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS looks like it wants to pop a secondary over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 00z GFS appears to be developing the coastal low earlier and farther north than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 3:43 AM, cheetah440 said: hmmmm Pete Bouchard says the force is not with this storm....http://www1.whdh.com/weather/blog/posts/BO147497/ His reasoning really leaves a lot to be desired and is pretty disappointing actually for a TV met IMO. From his post... Quote Two overwhelming factors in this storm: the ocean water temperature (40) and the wind direction (east). Those two elements tell me this is an elevation storm: the higher up you live, the better your chances for seeing - and keeping - snow. Read: Worcester County. I thought the mets here (coastal and will) were indicating based on the high pressure position for this storm we'll be feeding in cold air even from an east or ENE direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 RUC shows the dynamic cooling very nicely tomorrow at onset of precip.. actually looks like a heavier burst of snow than last week starting at 11-12pm for western SNE. the RUC was dead on for last storm remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS goes to town past 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Looks like a secondary develops and limits the ML warming. Nice hit N of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 3-6 Boston is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well that sucked. GFS caved finally. Solid snowstorm en route for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Much better then last run for part 2. Good hit close to the pike. Time to get a few hours sleetp. hoping for a juicy and cold euro run, and to wake up to a WWA/WSW. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS caving some on this run...much colder as it keeps BOS all snow...also has that secondary burst of snow around 06z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 GFS QPF looks better on this run but who knows, the trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 On 2/29/2012 at 4:06 AM, ETauntonMA said: Well that sucked. GFS caved finally. Solid snowstorm en route for many. Nice strip of 1.25-1.5 along the MA/CT border. Just N of this should be in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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