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March Lion Roars: 2/29-3/1 Winter Storm


Logan11

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Any chance of thunder snow Phil?

Absolutely... this band that is swinging through is unlike anything I've ever seen. Severe weather statments are going up in advance of the line. As long as we can hang on to our cold layer, this will be a night to remember, with 1-2" per hour snowfall rates with thunder snow possibly. Otherwise... heavy sleet/freezing rain.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1017 PM CST WED FEB 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NY MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEYS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 010417Z - 010815Z

MIXED PRECIP-TYPE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF APPRECIABLE FREEZING

RAIN RATES /0.10 INCH OR MORE PER 3 HRS/ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z

ACROSS THE NY MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY VICINITIES.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM NE OH SEWD INTO THE

MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NERN QUEBEC MAINTAINING

A RESIDUAL POLAR AIR MASS IN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT AND NERN FRINGE OF

CNTRL U.S. EML-- MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE AREA.

STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT --OWING TO DCVA AND A WARM CONVEYOR

SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION-- WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINTENANCE

AND INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF MODERATE PRECIP SHIELD /EMBEDDED

TSTMS/ ACROSS NWRN PA/SRN PARTS OF NY. SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC

GUIDANCE SHOW APPRECIABLE QPF DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MCD

AREA --IN EXCESS OF 0.10 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW

SUB-FREEZING LAYER BENEATH A LAYER WARMING AOA 0 DEG C NEAR H8 AS

THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS TOWARDS THE AREA. ELEVATED BUOYANCY --BASED

AROUND H85-- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIP.

AS SUCH...A MIX IN P-TYPE WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FAVORED OVER THE

REGION...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW FAVORED FARTHER NE

OVER SRN VT/WRN MA. LOCATIONS THAT MAINTAIN A FREEZING RAIN PROFILE

THE LONGEST --WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN

RATES AOA 0.10 INCH PER 3 HRS.

The area is outlined in the link

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0193.html

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KALB

AS OF 100 AM EST...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS A VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE

CUTOFF LOW OVER MICHIGAN MOVING INTO W-CNTRL NY. SOME CONVECTION

FIRED AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX...AND A NARROW DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN

IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A SECONDARY/COASTAL

LOW IS TRYING TO FORM NEAR SE NJ WITH THE MSAS SHOWING MSLP

PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-5 HPA/3 HRS. THE IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF

COLD CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING OUR AREA...SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF

ICE ALOFT TO SEED LOWER CLOUDS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW

CRYSTALS ONCE THE SECONDARY LOW REALLY STARTS OF TAKE OFF THIS

MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF PCPN.

WE USED THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES...AND WENT WITH SOME SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN UP TO THE CAPITAL REGION...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND

BERKSHIRES. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW MAINLY HERE AT THE

OFFICE...AND KPSF. THE DYING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE

TO WARM IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BRIEFLY...BEFORE WE COOL DOWN

LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. WE WILL HAVE TO

SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE FCST AREA. WE HUNG WITH

CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND

SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO IN THE

IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK...2 TO 4 INCHES

FURTHER NORTH...AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH...WITH ICE

ACCRETIONS OF A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE WRN MOHAWK

VALLEY/ERN CATSKILLS...PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL

REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS

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Wow. Latest NWS zones for Duanesburg/Delanson calling for another 5 to 10 inches today!

It's dumping +SN here now from that stuff that was the T-storms in the Finger Lakes. At first that stuff fell as heavy graupel, snow pellets, etc. Now it's really nicely formed dendrites. Temperature slipped back to 28.7.

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6Z NAM gave another .6" or so after 4 AM.....

I measured 4.5" since the deck was cleared before this latest stuff. So around 9 inches cumulative, though the actual amount on the ground may have settled a little.

28.7 and SN now ...that heaviest stuff is past.

Wow. Latest NWS zones for Duanesburg/Delanson calling for another 5 to 10 inches today!

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There was a time when the valley around KALB actually got big snowstorms. LOL

9" was my measurement awhile ago..probably gained some in this light/mod stuff. The last good stuff seems to be swinging toward us from Central NY.

I must say this thing did exceed my expectations. I figured 6" was gonna be the ceiling down here in the valley. Managed to surpass that by a few inches. Thankful we were able to pull off a decent event before we close the books on this God-awful winter.

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Absolutley dumping here now as we appear to be on the edge. I ventured into Cortland & Madison Cothis am at the lower elevations and there was nothing. Go up 300' and it's a winter wonderland. NWS still say .1" today LOL. If your gonna suck you might as well suck all year.

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Haha, yeah, its easy to blame Albany's snow woes in recent years on its valley, but they've really had some awful luck. They're not a bad snow location in normal times.

Anyway, surprisingly uniform snowfall distribution for a late season event so far. About 9" or so here in the Eastern MV. Will see if the all day lighter stuff adds anymore to it.

There was a time when the valley around KALB actually got big snowstorms. LOL

9" was my measurement awhile ago..probably gained some in this light/mod stuff. The last good stuff seems to be swinging toward us from Central NY.

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It's decent snow out here now, but temp must be right near 32 and I'm doubtful we'll gain much more depth this time of the day. If it got heavy ...but most of this stuff looks light- moderate in general.

We might get another inch, but not gain any depth as it compresses..... I'll report back. :)

Haha, yeah, its easy to blame Albany's snow woes in recent years on its valley, but they've really had some awful luck. They're not a bad snow location in normal times.

Anyway, surprisingly uniform snowfall distribution for a late season event so far. About 9" or so here in the Eastern MV. Will see if the all day lighter stuff adds anymore to it.

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It's decent snow out here now, but temp must be right near 32 and I'm doubtful we'll gain much more depth this time of the day. If it got heavy ...but most of this stuff looks light- moderate in general.

We might get another inch, but not gain any depth as it compresses..... I'll report back. :)

I think we're done...just mood enhancing snow from here on out.

It would be awesome if any of you could post some pics. I am frustrated out of my wits being stuck down here on business in Virginia these few days. Sunny and 65 here today. I hate nice weather! :lmao:

Sorry...I don't have any...there are some pics on the times union site...although mostly from yesterday it appears.

http://www.timesunion.com/local/article/Schools-closed-commute-treacherous-and-it-s-3373281.php#photo-2563885

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That final area of precip east of SYR looks like it may clip our area on north before this thing is all said and done. But unless its at least consistently moderate, it may not add more than to freshen up everyones' windshields.

It's decent snow out here now, but temp must be right near 32 and I'm doubtful we'll gain much more depth this time of the day. If it got heavy ...but most of this stuff looks light- moderate in general.

We might get another inch, but not gain any depth as it compresses..... I'll report back. :)

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This light snow is very persistent. Now 30.9 so it can stick to roads, etc. again. I believe we got 2 inches since about 9:00 AM ..probably would have been 3" had it not been so marginal with the sun angle etc.

My final will probably go in at 11" , but I'll hold off a little longer. My goal now is 5" more inches this month to get to 50".

If you want to stay up will midnight tomorrow night the 18Z NAM is trending toward that being a a quick few hour burst of snow/sleet it seems...then showers with the front and 40's during the day Saturday.

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