Logan11 Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 I had some suspect stuff ..call it snow pellets or sleet, but when it picked up it was all good flakes again. I'm thinking it's function of intensity so not too worried once the better stuff gets here again later tonight. This looks like a pretty long lull though. 28.6 now. Just measured 4.8". The valley actually did better so far. Pingers here...NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! 23Z RUC says what part 2 tonight. Hoping that convection down south doesn't rob all of the moisture. Don't PANIC!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 local met The 12km run of the WRF closes in on 2” of liquid equivalent over eastern Herkimer, Fulron and Montgo Cos. I don’t buy it. latest ruc http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/displayMap.cgi?keys=ruc7t:&runtime=2012022923&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=24&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/00z-sounding-dec 0z Albany soundings...warmest boundary layer temp is -1.9C yet it's sleeting hmmmm...supercooled water droplets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 1000-500mb thckness is north of the area http://www.spc.noaa.....php?sector=16# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 local mets calling for 1-3" tomorrow, they better hope the nam is way off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 1000-500mb thckness is north of the area http://www.spc.noaa.....php?sector=16# Yep -- the low-mid levels are experiencing some rather intense warm air advection right now. The KALB 2351z ob did report all snow, but the 0051z ob included sleet. In fact, the sleet began at 0027z. KALB 010051Z 00000KT 1SM R01/P6000FT -SNPL BR BKN005 OVC013 M01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 PLB27 SLP149 P0004 T10061011 KALB 292351Z COR 00000KT 1SM -SN BR OVC005 M01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 CIG 002V008 SLP150 4/004 P0000 60025 T10061011 10000 21017 56032 You can get a rough idea of temperature advection for various layers of the atmosphere at this page: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12030100_OBS/ Look in the second column to the right of the Skew-T diagram. I don't know the accuracy of these temperature advection calculations, but I do know just from looking at the maps that WAA is ongoing ... so -1.9C could very well rise to values above 0C in ~27 minutes. Gotta wait for the secondary low to develop and the 500 mb low to approach to give us the cooler air and upward vertical motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The NAM has been very stubbornly consistent....right or wrong. I noticed the last 30 min or so on my GrLevel 3 radar that the back edge of the WAA precip has started backbuilding around Fonda/ Amsterdam and the precip in WNY is charging across the S Tier to inject into it in a couple of hours. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's thundering and lightening here...heavy rain/sleet....ick...wish it was snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I can see lightning clearly out of my south-facing window, and there have been a few rumbles of thunder as well. 48(!) dbz storm is going to edge just east of Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The thunder storm is rolling through southern Tompkins County. My dogs are not very happy about this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'd give my left nut for some thundersnow. Haven't experienced it for like 18 years or something. I can see lightning clearly out of my south-facing window, and there have been a few rumbles of thunder as well. 48(!) dbz storm is going to edge just east of Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The thunder storm is rolling through southern Tompkins County. My dogs are not very happy about this either. Just out of curiosity, how much snow have you gotten this year? Ithaca is at about 16"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'd give my left nut for some thundersnow. Haven't experienced it for like 18 years or something. LOL, this isn't going to be snow. There could be some sleet mixed in though. This winter is honestly worse than anything I ever experienced in Allentown. I never had a single year without a storm of at least 6" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The thunder storm is rolling through southern Tompkins County. My dogs are not very happy about this either. Sounds like my old stoping grounds of ithaca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I was hoping the convection would make it to ENY where it would be snow probably, but we have more cold air around here and even though the convection is elevated it should still fizzle before it gets here. Albany ironically didn't have the least snowy Dec, Jan, Feb on record because of our leap day snow today. But your right....this winter has been unbelievably sucky!!! LOL, this isn't going to be snow. There could be some sleet mixed in though. This winter is honestly worse than anything I ever experienced in Allentown. I never had a single year without a storm of at least 6" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 The GFS still putting out a good 1" of qpf in our back yards after 3Z and has a crazy max of 1.5" around Saratoga. So it must imply some serious echoes move through. The cut off is very sharp to our south with only about .5" additional in southern Greene County so the way is clear for us to be screwed somewhat with a small shift north. The NAM was actually a little drier, but same scenario. I was hoping the convection would make it to ENY where it would be snow probably, but we have more cold air around here and even though the convection is elevated it should still fizzle before it gets here. Albany ironically didn't have the least snowy Dec, Jan, Feb on record because of our leap day snow today. But your right....this winter has been unbelievably sucky!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah, close call. hoping for a slight drift south overnight. Convection in N PA seems to have a decent easterly component to its motion. As coastal gets going radar should fill in nicely after midnight. Atm is primed and ready. Saratoga / Galway area have consistently been in the bulls-eye in the GFS and NAM runs as of late. The GFS still putting out a good 1" of qpf in our back yards after 3Z and has a crazy max of 1.5" around Saratoga. So it must imply some serious echoes move through. The cut off is very sharp to our south with only about .5" additional in southern Greene County so the way is clear for us to be screwed somewhat with a small shift north. The NAM was actually a little drier, but same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 As if this winter weren't frustrating enough, I learned a few days ago that I'd have to leave town on business. I hopped a plane to Virginia at 10am this morning... and won't get back into town until Friday evening... just in time for Saturday's rain and melt fest. I was greeted with a 60 degree rain upon my arrival here today. I can't describe how frustrating this is. Enjoy the snow all of you. It's well deserved. The GFS still putting out a good 1" of qpf in our back yards after 3Z and has a crazy max of 1.5" around Saratoga. So it must imply some serious echoes move through. The cut off is very sharp to our south with only about .5" additional in southern Greene County so the way is clear for us to be screwed somewhat with a small shift north. The NAM was actually a little drier, but same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Aw man, I hate when I go away and it snows up here. I feel your pain man. Tracked snow up here several times from my parents place in Florida. The best was Dec 25/26 2002. We go to the Albany airport and all flights were cancelled. Drove home in a whiteout and played in the awesome storm and got down to Florida 2 days late in 1st class seats. Best of both worlds! As if this winter weren't frustrating enough, I learned a few days ago that I'd have to leave town on business. I hopped a plane to Virginia at 10am this morning... and won't get back into town until Friday evening... just in time for Saturday's rain and melt fest. I was greeted with a 60 degree rain upon my arrival here today. I can't describe how frustrating this is. Enjoy the snow all of you. It's well deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Things are about to get very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 rgem look a little warm for tomorrow, herkimer walks a tight rope through out..(go to 3/1 0z) http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Really interested to see how that line out west interacts with the cold(er) air this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Picked up ~0.5" of snow/sleet since 5pm...event total at about 4.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Not sure I trust the GFS...didnt pick up on the convection out west. NAM didnt pick it up great either, but better than the GFS. Wish I could watch things evolve over the next few hours...but I need sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks awesome out there, guys, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The NWS forecast grid drives me nuts sometimes. My point and click calls for snow/sleet becoming all snow after 4am...then tomorrows forecast starts with snow/rain becoming all snow after 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah, it didn't pick it up well at all. And I too will have to wait and see in the morning. Still fearing precip is overdone and warm air underdone. A shade over 4" so far, so still one of the better vents this winter. Thanks HubbDave, we'll see how it goes...many of us here are straddling that line. Looks great for you out there in North. MA tomorrow! Looks awesome out there, guys, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Their point and click grids have caused some very funky outputs over the couple years since they've been introduced. Precips starting to blossom just to the southwest.. The NWS forecast grid drives me nuts sometimes. My point and click calls for snow/sleet becoming all snow after 4am...then tomorrows forecast starts with snow/rain becoming all snow after 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Any chance of thunder snow Phil? Things are about to get very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 That band could spell trouble for herkimer, i think 850s are right around 0 here and surface is at 29.9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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