Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I guess this warrants a separate thread for ENY and CNY anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well this would be the biggest region-wide snowstorm of the season for the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Lake George to Saratoga Area. Of course in most years it would be a typical moderate sized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I wish I could live in an 18z NAM fantasy world. 12-18" region wide would be sweet. But I'm not sure we see more than 2-4" with the first wave. Thermal profiles dictate what we see beyond that...hopefully another couple inches Thu/Thu night...but I'm not sold on that just yet. FWIW...Albany's daily snowfall record for tomorrow is just 0.8"...so this event could be a record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Its prob just north of the area but the 30-40 mm on the rgem almost looks like it goes down the valley..Its very hard to tell, nonetheless it looks good.. rgem snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 That's pretty impressive. And as you can see from this 36 hr map...the model thinks it's all snow in the CD and much of the Mohawk Valley. Its prob just north of the area but the 30-40 mm on the rgem almost looks like it goes down the valley..Its very hard to tell, nonetheless it looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 WKTV for the day on WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 WKTV for the day on WED Couple more local maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thank you for posting all those graphics MohawkValley - nice to have them all in one place:) As my neighbor said two days ago when I mentioned this potential significant storm - "I'll believe it when I have snow to shovel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I can't believe this model spits this out 15 hours before the storm. Way overdone on precip obviously, and am still very worried about taint at some point...but pretty to look at. 0z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I can't believe this model spits this out 15 hours before the storm. Way overdone on precip obviously, and am still very worried about taint at some point...but pretty to look at. I think the 0z looks a bit warmer in mid layers than previous runs, so your concerns are warranted. Plus side is 18z GFS was a touch cooler. We may be converging in a solution finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I was wrong...Bufkit says 0z nam is still mostly snow at ALB. About 1.25" total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Probably one not much different than what the NWS has forecasted at the moment. Still, should rival my crippling 5" snowfall back in January for heaviest of the season. Edit: pulled up bufkit and saw that as well. Both NAM and GFS are rather stubborn, will give them that. I think the 0z looks a bit warmer in mid layers than previous runs, so your concerns are warranted. Plus side is 18z GFS was a touch cooler. We may be converging in a solution finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Bufkit for kuca shows 4.5" of front end snow, .30" in the form of ice then another 5" on top of that lol Being 13 more miles east i would get a little more snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 My head is spinning with this one. The NAM is often better at seeing low level cold air damming, and it's been pretty consistent today, but it's on a losing streak as of late to say the least. Also if often seems like if a mid level warm tongue can change us to pings and ice it often will in marginal situations. All of the models are being relatively stubborn with this one. Something has to give soon. Models seem to give us 3-14". We'll see, should be interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0Z Goofus trended colder. A NAM coup would do a lot to help repair an awful winter. GFS looks like 1.3" QPF at Alb with mostly snow. Close call with the temp profile though. 500 mb dynamics shifted south a bit. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0Z Goofus trended colder. A NAM coup would do a lot to help repair an awful winter. GFS looks like 1.3" QPF at Alb with mostly snow. Close call with the temp profile though. 500 mb dynamics shifted south a bit. Fingers crossed! I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 At 18hrs the gfs looks pretty good, not to far from the nam..Just a little quicker..But at hr 24 it pushes the mod-heavy precip to the east unlike the nam which pushes it north..(1st image is really 2nd) 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The New England thread is going bonkers for "GFS caves to NAM". At least the GFS is trending colder each run with the dynamics for part 2 shifting south. I hope your wrong about the "we will mix." All you need is a model and a dream....the NAM in this case (soundings show maybe an hour of possible mixing but prob mostly if not all snow). I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's awfully precarious.... It could be anywhere from about 4 inches to the extreme of a foot in ALB. One positive is the RGEM which is running colder than the two US models and I can't recall the last time that happened. I was wrong...Bufkit says 0z nam is still mostly snow at ALB. About 1.25" total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 If it gets really light freezing drizzle maybe, but I don't expect FZRA..... PL yeah..... 25 here now ...off a high of 35 today. I'm not convinced the new GFS is mostly snow, I'll wait to see Bufkit. But one thing is for sure, we will mix. After the first wave, well see a mess of sleet/fzra, maybe plain old drizzle in the break. How well we do with the second half depends on how quickly temps crash. What's interesting with the GFS, it looks like we do a bit better with the second half of this storm than the first half...it just doesnt have as much precip with the initial wave tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 January 11-12th was a rare event where we erred on the cold side wrt model mid level temp forecasts. It was knifes edge like this and 95% of it fell as snow here. It's really the only time all winter we sort of overachieved. The New England thread is going bonkers for "GFS caves to NAM". At least the GFS is trending colder each run with the dynamics for part 2 shifting south. I hope your wrong about the "we will mix." All you need is a model and a dream....the NAM in this case (soundings show maybe an hour of possible mixing but prob mostly if not all snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 fwiw (which is not much)the 23 hr ruc screws the HV, decent hit for cny, best for the catskills http://ruc.noaa.gov/...&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 For once I'd like to wake up the day of an impending storm and not have the models back way off on the QPF. Even if it's not all snow, I want a juicy exciting storm with decent precip rates. Hope the NAM and GFS hold serve or go bonkers with the 6Z and 12Z! Dream, dream , dream! Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 I was a little thrown off by the GFS qpf maps though because I forgot to look at the 12-18 hour period. We get some before 1 PM also...especially so out west. At 18hrs the gfs looks pretty good, not to far from the nam..Just a little quicker..But at hr 24 it pushes the mod-heavy precip to the east unlike the nam which pushes it north..(1st image is really 2nd) 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 My thoughts: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/local4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Very nice job with the map Phil, and excellent discussion! My thoughts: http://www.atmos.alb...pin/local4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ecm looks better, more precip and colder, herkimer only goes above freezing at 850 for about 3 hrs..Looks like 2-4 on the front end followed by a few hrs of mix and then 3-6/4-8 for the 2nd rnd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ecm looks better, more precip and colder, herkimer only goes above freezing at 850 for about 3 hrs..Looks like 2-4 on the front end followed by a few hrs of mix and then 3-6/4-8 for the 2nd rnd.. Really looking like round 2 could be bigger than round 1. Some mix still likely in there...but if we stay at or below freezing for the duration, I'm not gonna complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PMEST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS... EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 12 INCHES IN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND THE LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION. A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...FINALLY TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS WELL AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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