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Record March Warmth


bluewave

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Yeah, the models are hinting that 80 degree readings will be within reach for the warmest locations at some point over the next few weeks. We'll see if EWR can beat the 80 last March 18th.

EWR 2011 March 18 80 50

Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible.

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Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible.

We could end up surpassing March 2010 for the monthly average temperature departure

if the pattern persists long enough.

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Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible.

euro always seem to have a day 9-10 torch then slowly backs off! Springs are too cold I would love to see record warmth for both march and april, however sooner or later this will change my guess sometimes in mid to late summer and I have a feeling when it does change spring will be warmer than late summer............lol!!!!

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euro always seem to have a day 9-10 torch then slowly backs off! Springs are too cold I would love to see record warmth for both march and april, however sooner or later this will change my guess sometimes in mid to late summer and I have a feeling when it does change spring will be warmer than late summer............lol!!!!

It pretty much nailed today's warmth from 9 days out.

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It looks to be similar to March 2010, we torched around the same time and everything bloomed 2 weeks earlier than scheduled. We may end up a couple degrees warmer than that month all said and done though. That month our top temperature was 'only' 75 though. Last March we hit 80 (well EWR did, not sure about NYC)

at this rate, and based on the long term look of things, everything will be fully out my end of march, and that can be very bad if we get a late month or april freeze and you lose a lot of tree crops like apples.

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Given most places away from the shore reached 70-72F today w/ 850mb temps in the +6c to +8c range, if 850's get up to around +10c/+11c with sun breaking out and SW swinds, you can easily tack 4-7 degrees onto today's temperatures. 75-80F highs for at least one day in the next 7-10 days sounds like a reasonable starting point to me. Going with pattern persistance as well, record highs are not out of the question (low 80s). That's a monster H5 ridge we're talking about there -- all teleconnectors in favor of a torch -- positive AO, NAO, EPO, and negative PNA. Throw in the MJO circulating through the US torch phases of 4-7 for this time of year and you've got a recipe for beach weather.

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I would have been happy with highs in the low 60s this time of year, but upper 70s/low 80s in mid March is absolutely crazy and agree about how that could severely backfire if we get some strong cold shots in late March through mid April with the growing season likely well underway 3 weeks from now.

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I would have been happy with highs in the low 60s this time of year, but upper 70s/low 80s in mid March is absolutely crazy and agree about how that could severely backfire if we get some strong cold shots in late March through mid April with the growing season likely well underway 3 weeks from now.

I think I posted in the NYC 2nd warmest winter thread that the other two torch years -- 2002 and 1932, both reversed in terms of temp anomalies across the US for the month of March. The pattern we've got now is much more worrisome, as these insane positive departures can't last forever. Hopefully we see the warm pattern continue overall into the first half of April, as we're much less likely to get killing/damaging freezes if we have a major reversal post April 20th or so.

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Given most places away from the shore reached 70-72F today w/ 850mb temps in the +6c to +8c range, if 850's get up to around +10c/+11c with sun breaking out and SW swinds, you can easily tack 4-7 degrees onto today's temperatures. 75-80F highs for at least one day in the next 7-10 days sounds like a reasonable starting point to me. Going with pattern persistance as well, record highs are not out of the question (low 80s). That's a monster H5 ridge we're talking about there -- all teleconnectors in favor of a torch -- positive AO, NAO, EPO, and negative PNA. Throw in the MJO circulating through the US torch phases of 4-7 for this time of year and you've got a recipe for beach weather.

It's like the perfect storm of just an absolute furnace for this time of year. Amazing.

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I think I posted in the NYC 2nd warmest winter thread that the other two torch years -- 2002 and 1932, both reversed in terms of temp anomalies across the US for the month of March. The pattern we've got now is much more worrisome, as these insane positive departures can't last forever. Hopefully we see the warm pattern continue overall into the first half of April, as we're much less likely to get killing/damaging freezes if we have a major reversal post April 20th or so.

Something tells me we won't have to worry much for any below normal weather for quite a while.

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Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy.

Just an insane stretch of above normal temps. I wonder if we'll ever see a stretch like that for below. I'm curious at to when we last got a prolonged stretch of below normal temps like that around here.

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My only concern regarding the warmth at this time is with any cold front that may come through - perhaps the 12z ECM exaggerated it a bit, but there definitely have been times during this time of the year when the warmth didn't get close to its full potential because of a cold front moving through the region, although in this case it would mostly be for Wednesday/Thursday, with Monday/Tuesday still ending up warm, possibly getting to 70 degrees on Tuesday. If that cold front doesn't come through, temperatures should easily be able to reach the 70s away from the coast on Wednesday and Thursday.

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March already running +4 - +5 for most locations.

Some record highs in march' the 3/13 - 3/19 period for ewr/nyc others..

EWR:

3/13: 86 (1990)

3/14: 79 (2007)

3/15: 79 (1990)

3/16: 82 (1990)

3/17: 78 (1990)

3/18: 80 (2011)

3/19: 73 (2010)

NYC;

3/13: 85 (1990)

3/14: 75 (1946)

3/15: 77 (1990)

3/16: 82 (1990)

3/17: 75 (1945)

3/18: 77 (2011)

3/19: 76 (1918)

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2012 might end up with the warmest Feb/Mar combo on record...I would guess the average for 2012 will be above 46.0 making Feb/Mar 2012 the warmest on record...I would guess the November to March 2011-12 period is the warmest on record...

year.....Feb...Mar...ave...

2012...40.9

1998...40.6...45.4...43.0

1945...33.9...51.1...42.5

1990...39.8...45.1...42.5

2002...40.6...44.1...42.4

1991...40.0...44.6...42.3

2000...37.3...47.2...42.3

1976...39.9...44.4...42.2

1921...34.0...48.4...41.2

1925...37.9...44.2...41.1

1997...40.0...41.9...41.0

1954...40.1...41.6...40.9

1946...31.7...49.8...40.8

1981...39.3...42.3...40.8

1898...35.8...45.6...40.7

1999...38.9...42.5...40.7

1903...33.2...47.8...40.5

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Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy.

A weather station on the tarmac of an airport...in the middle of a metro area with over 20 million people...and their cars..and their planes...and their houses and electrical appliances.

Yeah it would make sense that we would see something like that.

Has this winter been warm? Of course.

Has it been as warm as the LGA tarmac would like us to believe? Doubtful, how many times have sundog and AG3 complained about the fact that LGA was 5-6 degrees warmer than them, when there within spitting distance of the airport.

Just for a little perspective globally this year ;)

gfs_t2m_bias.png

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A weather station on the tarmac of an airport...in the middle of a metro area with over 20 million people...and their cars..and their planes...and their houses and electrical appliances.

Yeah it would make sense that we would see something like that.

Has this winter been warm? Of course.

Has it been as warm as the LGA tarmac would like us to believe? Doubtful, how many times have sundog and AG3 complained about the fact that LGA was 5-6 degrees warmer than them, when there within spitting distance of the airport.

Just for a little perspective globally this year ;)

gfs_t2m_bias.png

I live in Astoria now. Astoria temps are very similar to LGA.

When I lived in Bayside area, there was a difference.

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