Isotherm Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 If correct, we may actually outdo March 2010 in terms of the early blooming. I see a certain type of cherry tree already in full bloom around here (pink flowers). A lot of red buds popping out on the maples, and lawns are greening up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Yeah, the models are hinting that 80 degree readings will be within reach for the warmest locations at some point over the next few weeks. We'll see if EWR can beat the 80 last March 18th. EWR 2011 March 18 80 50 Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible. We could end up surpassing March 2010 for the monthly average temperature departure if the pattern persists long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Euro looks on board for a mega-torch for days 9-10, centered around St. Patrick's day. Bermuda high sets up and 850's get above 10C. High 70s if not some 80s could be possible. euro always seem to have a day 9-10 torch then slowly backs off! Springs are too cold I would love to see record warmth for both march and april, however sooner or later this will change my guess sometimes in mid to late summer and I have a feeling when it does change spring will be warmer than late summer............lol!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 euro always seem to have a day 9-10 torch then slowly backs off! Springs are too cold I would love to see record warmth for both march and april, however sooner or later this will change my guess sometimes in mid to late summer and I have a feeling when it does change spring will be warmer than late summer............lol!!!! It pretty much nailed today's warmth from 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 it looks like a pretty solid projection.. it's been consistent in projecting the warm anomolies... the GFS is really warm too.. and it's not like there is any cold airmass remotely in site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means support a very mild St. Patty's weekend, for the East Coast as well. 80 degrees in some of the hot spots, in the local area, is not of the question: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 at this rate, and based on the long term look of things, everything will be fully out my end of march, and that can be very bad if we get a late month or april freeze and you lose a lot of tree crops like apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Were def hitting 80F, I guarantee it, the models always warm things up even more as we get closer, today and yesterday were good examples and the much warmer mid March sun angle will help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 It looks to be similar to March 2010, we torched around the same time and everything bloomed 2 weeks earlier than scheduled. We may end up a couple degrees warmer than that month all said and done though. That month our top temperature was 'only' 75 though. Last March we hit 80 (well EWR did, not sure about NYC) at this rate, and based on the long term look of things, everything will be fully out my end of march, and that can be very bad if we get a late month or april freeze and you lose a lot of tree crops like apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Given most places away from the shore reached 70-72F today w/ 850mb temps in the +6c to +8c range, if 850's get up to around +10c/+11c with sun breaking out and SW swinds, you can easily tack 4-7 degrees onto today's temperatures. 75-80F highs for at least one day in the next 7-10 days sounds like a reasonable starting point to me. Going with pattern persistance as well, record highs are not out of the question (low 80s). That's a monster H5 ridge we're talking about there -- all teleconnectors in favor of a torch -- positive AO, NAO, EPO, and negative PNA. Throw in the MJO circulating through the US torch phases of 4-7 for this time of year and you've got a recipe for beach weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I would have been happy with highs in the low 60s this time of year, but upper 70s/low 80s in mid March is absolutely crazy and agree about how that could severely backfire if we get some strong cold shots in late March through mid April with the growing season likely well underway 3 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I would have been happy with highs in the low 60s this time of year, but upper 70s/low 80s in mid March is absolutely crazy and agree about how that could severely backfire if we get some strong cold shots in late March through mid April with the growing season likely well underway 3 weeks from now. I think I posted in the NYC 2nd warmest winter thread that the other two torch years -- 2002 and 1932, both reversed in terms of temp anomalies across the US for the month of March. The pattern we've got now is much more worrisome, as these insane positive departures can't last forever. Hopefully we see the warm pattern continue overall into the first half of April, as we're much less likely to get killing/damaging freezes if we have a major reversal post April 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I hope to be cutting grass in 2 weeks.....would be earliest ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Given most places away from the shore reached 70-72F today w/ 850mb temps in the +6c to +8c range, if 850's get up to around +10c/+11c with sun breaking out and SW swinds, you can easily tack 4-7 degrees onto today's temperatures. 75-80F highs for at least one day in the next 7-10 days sounds like a reasonable starting point to me. Going with pattern persistance as well, record highs are not out of the question (low 80s). That's a monster H5 ridge we're talking about there -- all teleconnectors in favor of a torch -- positive AO, NAO, EPO, and negative PNA. Throw in the MJO circulating through the US torch phases of 4-7 for this time of year and you've got a recipe for beach weather. It's like the perfect storm of just an absolute furnace for this time of year. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 This is worse than any previous year for potential crop issues because the winter was so warm and snowless. In 2010, we had snow and some cold, this year, none. Investing in apple futures is a good bet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Here in paramus nj at 8pm 67 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I think I posted in the NYC 2nd warmest winter thread that the other two torch years -- 2002 and 1932, both reversed in terms of temp anomalies across the US for the month of March. The pattern we've got now is much more worrisome, as these insane positive departures can't last forever. Hopefully we see the warm pattern continue overall into the first half of April, as we're much less likely to get killing/damaging freezes if we have a major reversal post April 20th or so. Something tells me we won't have to worry much for any below normal weather for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 Something tells me we won't have to worry much for any below normal weather for quite a while. Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy. Just an insane stretch of above normal temps. I wonder if we'll ever see a stretch like that for below. I'm curious at to when we last got a prolonged stretch of below normal temps like that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy. that is an impressive map wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 My only concern regarding the warmth at this time is with any cold front that may come through - perhaps the 12z ECM exaggerated it a bit, but there definitely have been times during this time of the year when the warmth didn't get close to its full potential because of a cold front moving through the region, although in this case it would mostly be for Wednesday/Thursday, with Monday/Tuesday still ending up warm, possibly getting to 70 degrees on Tuesday. If that cold front doesn't come through, temperatures should easily be able to reach the 70s away from the coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Sunday looks beautiful with temps in the low 60's and a light west breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Low 60s are excellent for this time of the year, but were going to get into the 70s most likely for 2-3 days next week (perhaps near or at 80F) and that's excessive for mid March, that's too much even for mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Low 60's are perfect weather for March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 March already running +4 - +5 for most locations. Some record highs in march' the 3/13 - 3/19 period for ewr/nyc others.. EWR: 3/13: 86 (1990) 3/14: 79 (2007) 3/15: 79 (1990) 3/16: 82 (1990) 3/17: 78 (1990) 3/18: 80 (2011) 3/19: 73 (2010) NYC; 3/13: 85 (1990) 3/14: 75 (1946) 3/15: 77 (1990) 3/16: 82 (1990) 3/17: 75 (1945) 3/18: 77 (2011) 3/19: 76 (1918) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Big savings on utilities this winter/early spring. My windows have been open virtually the entire winter, won't even need the heat the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 2012 might end up with the warmest Feb/Mar combo on record...I would guess the average for 2012 will be above 46.0 making Feb/Mar 2012 the warmest on record...I would guess the November to March 2011-12 period is the warmest on record... year.....Feb...Mar...ave... 2012...40.9 1998...40.6...45.4...43.0 1945...33.9...51.1...42.5 1990...39.8...45.1...42.5 2002...40.6...44.1...42.4 1991...40.0...44.6...42.3 2000...37.3...47.2...42.3 1976...39.9...44.4...42.2 1921...34.0...48.4...41.2 1925...37.9...44.2...41.1 1997...40.0...41.9...41.0 1954...40.1...41.6...40.9 1946...31.7...49.8...40.8 1981...39.3...42.3...40.8 1898...35.8...45.6...40.7 1999...38.9...42.5...40.7 1903...33.2...47.8...40.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Going long the warmth has been a winning strategy. A weather station on the tarmac of an airport...in the middle of a metro area with over 20 million people...and their cars..and their planes...and their houses and electrical appliances. Yeah it would make sense that we would see something like that. Has this winter been warm? Of course. Has it been as warm as the LGA tarmac would like us to believe? Doubtful, how many times have sundog and AG3 complained about the fact that LGA was 5-6 degrees warmer than them, when there within spitting distance of the airport. Just for a little perspective globally this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 A weather station on the tarmac of an airport...in the middle of a metro area with over 20 million people...and their cars..and their planes...and their houses and electrical appliances. Yeah it would make sense that we would see something like that. Has this winter been warm? Of course. Has it been as warm as the LGA tarmac would like us to believe? Doubtful, how many times have sundog and AG3 complained about the fact that LGA was 5-6 degrees warmer than them, when there within spitting distance of the airport. Just for a little perspective globally this year I live in Astoria now. Astoria temps are very similar to LGA. When I lived in Bayside area, there was a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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