pazzo83 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Still 70 is a pipe dream, 47 and 70 are worlds apart. I guess you're right. We don't see 70s until the harbor water temp is in the 70s. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Surprising that this thread was allowed to stay up - there is no chance we will see 70's from the 7th - 15th - the GFS only has 50's as highs in KEWR for starters but a few readings in the low 60's is possible with 850 temps less then 10 the whole period - can't get 70's that way http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR And we all know how well the GFS has done in the long range. The teleconnections are all aligning for some major torchiness this month, just embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Don S in the main forum... Some Leap Day Thoughts... 1. A significant storm will impact parts of the Northeast with snow. However, typical of La Niña-AO+ setups, the storm will not be a KU-type event. Instead. it will bring significant snows to interior sections of New England and parts of Upstate New York. The axis of heaviest snows (widespread 6" or above amounts with some 10" or greater amounts) will likely be focused on southern and central New Hampshire. Although Boston and Providence could pick up some accumulations, cities such as New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will likely be shut out when it comes to accumulations. 2. New York City will probably be sufficiently warm to assure that February 2012 will be the warmest February on record there. Records go back to 1869. In addition, February 2012 will be only the second February on record there during which the month's lowest temperature did not fall below 20°F (-6.7°C). 3. Looking ahead, both the first and second weeks of March look to be solidly on course for warm anomalies in eastern North America and cold ones in parts of the West and also, Alaska. Over the next two weeks, the AO is projected to remain strongly positive. One GFS ensemble member takes the AO above +5 for a time, but that is likely overdone. What is not overdone is that no meaningful blocking episodes appear likely through at least the medium-term. 4. The MJO moved into Phase 3 yesterday. It is likely to progress through Phases 4 and into Phase 5 over the next 10-15 days at a slowing rate of progression. There are some hints on the ensembles that it could then cycle back toward the low-amplitude circle. Given this information, a scenario where the MJO is confined in Phases 4-7 for a meaningful part of the second half of March is not unrealistic. Even with the changing wavelengths, that could lead to a mild outcome in areas that have suffered from nearly-unrelenting warm anomalies. 5. The CFSv2 shows the area of warmth in North America expanding in coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The possible 70s are still over a week out and a lot can change so nothing is imminent yet. We'll see how things evolve when we get closer to that time frame. Hitting 70s in March is not that difficult especially with the warmer times and the fact that it can do that even in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Of course it'll happen when I'll be in Las Vegas. I hope that it won't be warmer here than in Vegas. DC and south already had a few 70 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Surprising that this thread was allowed to stay up - there is no chance we will see 70's from the 7th - 15th - the GFS only has 50's as highs in KEWR for starters but a few readings in the low 60's is possible with 850 temps less then 10 the whole period - can't get 70's that way http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR ECMWF is the opposite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 ECMWF is the opposite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Gfs torchh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Gfs torchh GFS says that winter is done for almost the whole country after Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The idea of a prolonged major warmup appears to be deteriorating on the models and the ensembles. The 12z euro ensembles are warm for only 2 days next week, ahead of the lakes cutter and then a PNA induced trough sweeps through the country days 7-10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 So we are warm but not absolute blowtorch. I can deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Just fyi guys, on Mar 16 our avg high hits 50, so a +10 day is pretty nice. Hell a +5 day is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 The models agree on +EPO warm pattern going forward. While we should see 60's this week, the big question for the long range is how will the ejection of the cutoff play out. We should see a bounce back into the 60's next week and possibly above 70 if the heights can rebound enough in the wake of the upper low moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The models agree on +EPO warm pattern going forward. While we should see 60's this week, the big question for the long range is how will the ejection of the cutoff play out. We should see a bounce back into the 60's next week and possibly above 70 if the heights can rebound enough in the wake of the upper low moving northeast. Those couple of highs sliding to our north and east is always worrisome in that they often create backdoor threats, but if we get a nice westerly fetch and some help from downsloping, I would think high 60s if not a spot 70 here and there are a definite possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Bluewave, your post on the 28th regarding the 7-15 March warm up based on analog years appears right on target--great job--as always. Are those conditions, such as the ridge over Hawaii and the downstream effects, all coming together as originally shown on your original post? If not, what's changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The Euro weeklies were a ridiculous torch weeks two and three...from what I can see in a low-res image the anomalies were approaching +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 00z GFS H5 pattern would imply well above normal temps for the Northeast, but much of the run features strong surface high pressure moving NW-SE from Canada into the offshore waters of New England, which is unfavorable for blowtorch temps. We'll be above normal, but as it stands I think the most significant positive anomalies will be found to the W/SW of the Northeast US. Most of the country will be torching for March standards, but there probably will be some backdoor resistance in the Northeast. Through D 10, there aren't really any very warm days from PHL northeast other than this coming Wed-Thurs. A lot of 50s, which is above normal, but again, I wouldn't bite on any major torches for our area just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Could March have even warmer above normal temperature departures than February? And would the Euro weeklies indicate widespread 70s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Could March have even warmer above normal temperature departures than February? And would the Euro weeklies indicate widespread 70s? I would'nt rely on the euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 What does this map tell you? It's still early March and there is virtually no snow on the ground anywhere in the US. You have to go to the highest elevations out west or extreme northern New England and Upper mid-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 and the US will torch--with no snowcover, airmasses will quickly moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 and the US will torch--with no snowcover, airmasses will quickly moderate Really nothing has changed since December. The cold air remains up in Siberia and extends eastward into Northern Canada. It can not move southward due to the positive NAO and whenever that seems to relax, its only transient cold shots because there is no blocking. The SE ridge is the final dagger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 What does this map tell you? It's still early March and there is virtually no snow on the ground anywhere in the US. You have to go to the highest elevations out west or extreme northern New England and Upper mid-west I was in park city utah last weeknd, good snow cover 2-4 feet at 7k elevation. I may have been at the deepest snow cover location in all of this country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 I was in park city utah last weeknd, good snow cover 2-4 feet at 7k elevation. I may have been at the deepest snow cover location in all of this country! Probably was that is a putrid map nationwide for any winter. Goes to show you how inactive the winter was for the entire country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I was in park city utah last weeknd, good snow cover 2-4 feet at 7k elevation. I may have been at the deepest snow cover location in all of this country! 2 years ago I was in Baltimore, Maryland the weekend after Snowmageddon. That was the deepest snow cover in the country at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Probably was that is a putrid map nationwide for any winter. Goes to show you how inactive the winter was for the entire country Third smallest winter snow cover footprint for the US in the 46 year satellite record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Third smallest winter snow cover footprint for the US in the 46 year satellite record. This has been the wimpiest winter ever! Let's hope that we can get summer here as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 If the medium range models are remotely correct, next week looks to feature 60 degree or higher temperatures pretty much each day starting with Sunday...and the potential for multiple 70+ F days away from the beaches . http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 This has been the wimpiest winter ever! Let's hope that we can get summer here as soon as possible. If the medium range models are remotely correct, next week looks to feature 60 degree or higher temperatures pretty much each day starting with Sunday...and the potential for multiple 70+ F days away from the beaches . http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html Yeah, the models are hinting that 80 degree readings will be within reach for the warmest locations at some point over the next few weeks. We'll see if EWR can beat the 80 last March 18th. EWR 2011 March 18 80 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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