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Record March Warmth


bluewave

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After this winter, people will never underestimate the power of the EPO ever again.

The -EPO has been terrorizing us for months....

The Atlantic has been horrendous as well, with either a misplaced -NAO, or roaring +NAO and +AO. Just the perfect combination of screwjob to destroy any chance we had at a real winter. I'd say if anything has REALLY burned us, it's been the mega PV over Baffin Bay. It just hasn't allowed ridging to pop in a favorable spot, and kept a wretched dry, progressive, warm pattern going over most of the US, not just here.

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Yep. One of the more persistent screw jobs has been that pv sitting over the Davis straights to Greenland. For a month or so, the Pacific Was quite favorable with a -epo,+PNA.... The flow over eastern Canada was so fast, nothing could amplify.

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Hopefully I am wrong, but until Memorial Day I never write off a back door cold front ruining what is forecast to be a stretch of superb weather.

yup. Many a times down here in PA during the spring Pittsburgh is basking in mid 70 degree warmth while east of the mountains we are stuck around 50 with low clouds and drizzle.

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Nice thread bluewave. It will be fun to track after the let downof a winter this was. The last time we saw 70(+) was Nov 28th despite the record warmth this winter. Suspect allergy season is very early this year.

Yup already started for me. About 3 weeks ahead of schedule actually for me personally. On a side note, surprisingly, I haven't seen any Robin's yet. Typically an early spring brings them out by now.

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I'm pretty confident that we're heading for an above normal spring and summer.

But why you would want a cold/wet spring or summer is beyond me.

Cold springs aren't my favorite, but I like cool summers. Perhaps we are due for a cool one. It's far enough away to have forecasting margins of error.

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It doesn't always translate to extremes though. This year Feb has been +6 and our warmest reading was 64. Last year we were +1.7 but reached 71. March of 98 was running near normal but torched with temps in the 80s the last 5 days of the month sending us to a +3.

It's truly amazing how consistently warm it's been since November, my 80F bet looks pretty good for March, just an incredibly warm run that will only get stronger as we head into the warmer season.

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As the op EC models the high I don't like the surface position all that well for a 70 degree run here or in NYC. Would really prefer it set up near Hatteras...get a nice WSW flow and torch it big time. Anytime it's set up too far east or northeast you get some major potential for marine flow to set up along the coast.

This really could be a nice torch in Pittsburgh or in Buffalo though.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f240.gif

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As the op EC models the high I don't like the surface position all that well for a 70 degree run here or in NYC. Would really prefer it set up near Hatteras...get a nice WSW flow and torch it big time. Anytime it's set up too far east or northeast you get some major potential for marine flow to set up along the coast.

This really could be a nice torch in Pittsburgh or in Buffalo though.

http://www.meteo.psu....5_12z/f216.gif

http://www.meteo.psu....5_12z/f240.gif

the euro tends to be too amplified at that range, so the flow may not be as meridional

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