bluewave Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Models moving to +EPO warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 After this winter, people will never underestimate the power of the EPO ever again. The -EPO has been terrorizing us for months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 After this winter, people will never underestimate the power of the EPO ever again. The -EPO has been terrorizing us for months.... The Atlantic has been horrendous as well, with either a misplaced -NAO, or roaring +NAO and +AO. Just the perfect combination of screwjob to destroy any chance we had at a real winter. I'd say if anything has REALLY burned us, it's been the mega PV over Baffin Bay. It just hasn't allowed ridging to pop in a favorable spot, and kept a wretched dry, progressive, warm pattern going over most of the US, not just here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yep. One of the more persistent screw jobs has been that pv sitting over the Davis straights to Greenland. For a month or so, the Pacific Was quite favorable with a -epo,+PNA.... The flow over eastern Canada was so fast, nothing could amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Watch out for back door cold front(s) as we near the event. Shallow marine layer FTL possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Watch out for back door cold front(s) as we near the event. Shallow marine layer FTL possible? Torch all the way through Atlantic Canada? Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Torch all the way through Atlantic Canada? Doubt it. Hopefully I am wrong, but until Memorial Day I never write off a back door cold front ruining what is forecast to be a stretch of superb weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hopefully I am wrong, but until Memorial Day I never write off a back door cold front ruining what is forecast to be a stretch of superb weather. yup. Many a times down here in PA during the spring Pittsburgh is basking in mid 70 degree warmth while east of the mountains we are stuck around 50 with low clouds and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice thread bluewave. It will be fun to track after the let downof a winter this was. The last time we saw 70(+) was Nov 28th despite the record warmth this winter. Suspect allergy season is very early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice thread bluewave. It will be fun to track after the let downof a winter this was. The last time we saw 70(+) was Nov 28th despite the record warmth this winter. Suspect allergy season is very early this year. Yup already started for me. About 3 weeks ahead of schedule actually for me personally. On a side note, surprisingly, I haven't seen any Robin's yet. Typically an early spring brings them out by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's truly amazing how consistently warm it's been since November, my 80F bet looks pretty good for March, just an incredibly warm run that will only get stronger as we head into the warmer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's truly amazing how consistently warm it's been since November, my 80F bet looks pretty good for March, just an incredibly warm run that will only get stronger as we head into the warmer season. I'm hoping that's when the pattern changes. Don't need another hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm hoping that's when the pattern changes. Don't need another hot summer. Something will probably change, especially with the Nina fading away and the potential switch to Nino, the early spring months of March and April may be the warmest relative to normal with a change as we head into May and June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm hoping that's when the pattern changes. Don't need another hot summer. I'm pretty confident that we're heading for an above normal spring and summer. But why you would want a cold/wet spring or summer is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm pretty confident that we're heading for an above normal spring and summer. But why you would want a cold/wet spring or summer is beyond me. Agree. Hoping we can get a nice severe season to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Watch out for back door cold front(s) as we near the event. Shallow marine layer FTL possible? Yup. We're getting to that time of year. Highs love to form over the Maritimes and keep the flow easterly from here through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Are the water temperatures above normal as well? That plays a role with the easterly flow in early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Are the water temperatures above normal as well? That plays a role with the easterly flow in early Spring. Yeah they are It's around 43 degrees up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm pretty confident that we're heading for an above normal spring and summer. But why you would want a cold/wet spring or summer is beyond me. Cold springs aren't my favorite, but I like cool summers. Perhaps we are due for a cool one. It's far enough away to have forecasting margins of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It doesn't always translate to extremes though. This year Feb has been +6 and our warmest reading was 64. Last year we were +1.7 but reached 71. March of 98 was running near normal but torched with temps in the 80s the last 5 days of the month sending us to a +3. It's truly amazing how consistently warm it's been since November, my 80F bet looks pretty good for March, just an incredibly warm run that will only get stronger as we head into the warmer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As the op EC models the high I don't like the surface position all that well for a 70 degree run here or in NYC. Would really prefer it set up near Hatteras...get a nice WSW flow and torch it big time. Anytime it's set up too far east or northeast you get some major potential for marine flow to set up along the coast. This really could be a nice torch in Pittsburgh or in Buffalo though. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As the op EC models the high I don't like the surface position all that well for a 70 degree run here or in NYC. Would really prefer it set up near Hatteras...get a nice WSW flow and torch it big time. Anytime it's set up too far east or northeast you get some major potential for marine flow to set up along the coast. This really could be a nice torch in Pittsburgh or in Buffalo though. http://www.meteo.psu....5_12z/f216.gif http://www.meteo.psu....5_12z/f240.gif the euro tends to be too amplified at that range, so the flow may not be as meridional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Are the water temperatures above normal as well? That plays a role with the easterly flow in early Spring. NY harbor is 46-47 now. Last year this time it was 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this thread just made my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 NY harbor is 46-47 now. Last year this time it was 40. Still 70 is a pipe dream, 47 and 70 are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm pretty confident that we're heading for an above normal spring and summer. But why you would want a cold/wet spring or summer is beyond me. Maybe he just doesn't want 100 degrees all summer long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 this thread just made my day Yea because you've been suffering under a long and brutal winter for the last 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Winter should be cold and summer should be hot. Cool summers are as depressing as warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Winter should be cold and summer should be hot. Cool summers are as depressing as warm winters. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Surprising that this thread was allowed to stay up - there is no chance we will see 70's from the 7th - 15th - the GFS only has 50's as highs in KEWR for starters but a few readings in the low 60's is possible with 850 temps less then 10 the whole period - can't get 70's that way http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.