OKpowdah Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pretty good support for a major trough digging into the West middle of this week, behind our snowstorm. As the s/w producing our snow event gets sheared out underneath the trough swinging through eastern Canada into the straits by Thursday, there is nothing from stopping the western trough from amplifying and breaking over the Midwest, with a surface low exploding over the Great Lakes and tracking northward into Ontario. King of cutters. Pretty sick LLJ being advertised up the east coast ... 60kt+ at 925mb. High PWATs >1" Very strong WAA ...temps should shoot into the 50's pretty easily in SNE. TTs get up to around 50. Wicked strong vorticity advection as the trough approaches + forcing from the LLJ ... thunder? Definitely some heavy downpours. Welcome to spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOX has freezing rain mentioned in my PNC... not sure where that is coming from. Seems like this will have a warm profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 On some of the guidance, it looks like the back end of this event is frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 There is decent CAD across NH into N MA Saturday morning that might allow for some freezing rain at the onset. Otherwise, I wouldn't make it an all-day thing like the NWS has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Surprised wiz hasn't commented on the 70 knot jet at 925MB. Should see some of that mix down pretty well I would imagine. At least if it's going to rain, have it be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hey Sam... Did you see my discussion for Saturday, by chance? SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DURING THE DAY WELL W OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOME MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A SECOND LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS ITS TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED AROUND 1/2 INCH OF QPF FOR THE SAT/SAT NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET /ON ORDER OF 60-70 AT H925!/...HAVE CARRIED GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT SHOULD SEE EXCELLENT MIXING AND LIKELY EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. DID NOTE SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL...WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50 AND K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY WATCH ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE MIX DOWN. MOS GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING TEMPS WELL AT ALL EITHER FRI NIGHT OR SAT SO LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 2M MODEL TEMPS MAINLY OFF THE GFS. HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN THE LEAST TO SEE THESE GOING EVEN HIGHER. Will be back on the long term desk later today. We'll see how the models do then, eh? --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The 00z EC is a lot colder for the system now. I may not get out of the 30s until the cold fropa mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The 00z EC is a lot colder for the system now. I may not get out of the 30s until the cold fropa mixing. Let's try and salvage any snowpack we can..Even if we can stay in the 40's in SNE I;d consider that a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Let's try and salvage any snowpack we can..Even if we can stay in the 40's in SNE I;d consider that a win Even at that-blowtorch comes next week anyway=it's a losing battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 1-3" for Dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 ZR? That's probably closer to a sleet sounding. ... actually a thunder-sleet sounding nice ML lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Hey Sam... Did you see my discussion for Saturday, by chance? SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DURING THE DAY WELL W OF THE REGION...WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOME MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A SECOND LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS ITS TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED AROUND 1/2 INCH OF QPF FOR THE SAT/SAT NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET /ON ORDER OF 60-70 AT H925!/...HAVE CARRIED GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT SHOULD SEE EXCELLENT MIXING AND LIKELY EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. DID NOTE SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL...WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 50 AND K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY WATCH ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE MIX DOWN. MOS GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING TEMPS WELL AT ALL EITHER FRI NIGHT OR SAT SO LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE AS WELL AS 2M MODEL TEMPS MAINLY OFF THE GFS. HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IN THE LEAST TO SEE THESE GOING EVEN HIGHER. Will be back on the long term desk later today. We'll see how the models do then, eh? --Turtle Excellent discussion!! Quite a system that could have a variety of weather elements. Should be a fun Saturday at storm conference!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 That's probably closer to a sleet sounding. ... actually a thunder-sleet sounding nice ML lapse rates Oh. That's a sounding for my house basically at 9z Saturday. I'll be in Rutland though i realized. I doubt it verifies anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 hmmm compare the 2 and thats a big shift http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 My p/c has 1-3" for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 BTV doesn't even mention rain in the AFD.... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EST FRIDAY...WEATHER BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLEX GOING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY CREATING SOME SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW AT THE ONSET...BUT WITH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FZRA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT A BIG EVENT IN REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS...BUT WE`RE LIKELY LOOKING AT A GENERAL DUSTING TO 2" OF SNOW ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN SOME LOCATIONS. JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY SATURDAY MORNING TRAVEL A BIT HAZARDOUS. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY MORNING...A HUGE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...A STRONG 925-850MB JET PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH SEVERAL MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW 50-60KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. SOME SIMILARITIES ARE SHOWING UP IN COMPARISON TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT THIS PAST JANUARY IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...THOUGH THIS TIME THE LOW ISN`T DEEPENING THROUGH TIME AND THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALL COUPLET IS A LITTLE FARTHER DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60MPH EXISTS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THUS A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL TURN OUT TO BE A HIGH-END ADVISORY EVENT...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS TIME SO WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE TODAY AS NEW MODEL DATA IS GENERATED. LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION. My P/C has 1-3" tonight and tomorrow morning followed by some light icing. Do we switch to rain at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looking at the latest data, we may avoid plain rain... looks like we stay below freezing until the dryslot hits. Nice. Maybe can we can encase this snowpack in some ice down here in the valley. It'll stick around forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This stuff may start as a bit of SN or ZR/IP for Kevin and Will. maybe even RASN at BOS very briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Saturday 3/3 ...wind, rain, thunder?Because the snow on Thursday will just get washed away anyway Title by soon to be Grad student abject fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Saturday 3/3 ...wind, rain, thunder?Because the snow on Thursday will just get washed away anyway Title by soon to be Grad student abject fail. too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looks like 1-2" here followed by a little IP/ZR then ending as some rain. Hopefully the secondary forms too late and my snowpack doesn't get completely drenched. Yeah, I know it gets a good torch next week, but I'd like to see if it can survive it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looks like 1-2" here followed by a little IP/ZR then ending as some rain. Hopefully the secondary forms too late and my snowpack doesn't get completely drenched. Yeah, I know it gets a good torch next week, but I'd like to see if it can survive it at all. If it gets drenched and freezes that night it will be bulletproof for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I will just enjoy the few inches of snow cover for the next how ever many hours it has left to live. Eventually I will hang my head in shame as the rain washes it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This stuff may start as a bit of SN or ZR/IP for Kevin and Will. maybe even RASN at BOS very briefly. Nah no snow or ice for me..rainer end to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Nah no snow or ice for me..rainer end to end I think you'll have some ice to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 1 more day of decent skiing at WaWa, before the toilet bowl conditions return But it should freeze up nicely, and the snow we got was pretty dense, so it might last a bit. Hopefully this is a fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This could have some nice icing in ORH hills and east slopes of the Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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