TheTrials Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 So much for the robust signal on day 8 what is past is prologue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 exactly-bet we bust warm yet again All models have the temps dropping as the day goes on. By 8pm, models have the city into the low 40's and upper 30's and by tomorrow morning into the upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 LOL @ certain SNE weenies getting excited about a 1 day cold snap and a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 All models have the temps dropping as the day goes on. By 8pm, models have the city into the low 40's and upper 30's and by tomorrow morning into the upper 20's. That will be tough with a late March sun. This time of year the sun usually wins. Although, up here at ~750ft the winds are absolutely howling, easily gusts to 60mph+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 LOL @ certain SNE weenies getting excited about a 1 day cold snap and a flurry. The pattern has switched though. We look like we are locked in to a normal late March pattern now with a -nao as well. Doesnt look like any crazy warmth in the next 2 weeks. Just the normal wild swings of March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 That will be tough with a late March sun. This time of year the sun usually wins. Although, up here at ~750ft the winds are absolutely howling, easily gusts to 60mph+. With 30-40mph NW winds, its not tough at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 That will be tough with a late March sun. This time of year the sun usually wins. Although, up here at ~750ft the winds are absolutely howling, easily gusts to 60mph+. With 30-40mph NW winds, its not tough at all. As modeled, temps are now on their way down. We lost 3-4 degrees since the morning highs and models have it dropping until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Was pretty breezy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 It was pretty hard to keep my balance in newark today because of the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 RIP Ken Reeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 Snow/Sleet with a high of 62 Degrees in Montague NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Something weird has been going on with a few of the airport OBS in the area... Sussex airport has been somehow reporting light snow since 7 PM which doesn't make sense given the very low dew points, and Teterboro was the only station around the area that I've seen to have observed "Blowing dust" for this afternoon. The latest observations are still somehow listing snow as the current OBS in Sussex: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Something weird has been going on with a few of the airport OBS in the area... Sussex airport has been somehow reporting light snow since 7 PM which doesn't make sense given the very low dew points, and Teterboro was the only station around the area that I've seen to have observed "Blowing dust" for this afternoon. The latest observations are still somehow listing snow as the current OBS in Sussex: Yeah something has been wrong with the Sussex station. Over the past few days, "Light rain" has been in several of the hourly observations, even when it wasn't raining. I just look under "Sky Cond.", which has been accurate. The Sussex station was offline for several days this month too. Great timing considering there was an ongoing historical event occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Well, this is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Im freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 LOL @ certain SNE weenies getting excited about a 1 day cold snap and a flurry. Your call of no more freezing temps looks good right now that you plastured all over the NE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 All models have the temps dropping as the day goes on. By 8pm, models have the city into the low 40's and upper 30's and by tomorrow morning into the upper 20's. Weenies will be weenies. Certain patterns produce cold and others produce warmth....this is one that produces cold. He also said that the friday before St. Patty's day when OKX went 50 for him would bust way warm....not a peep after the high was in the 40s. Its simple met 101 on certain patterns. Even within a warm regime, synoptic setups do not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Your call of no more freezing temps looks good right now that you plastured all over the NE subforum. Owned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Lovely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Lovely: It's ULL and cutoff low season, just because its been fairly dry and warm doesn't mean we won't get some typical early Spring weather. I'm sure we won't escape the entire Spring without at least one good noreaster. The 00z GFS had areas just to our south getting socked with several inches of rain over the next week or two, even though 06z shifted a tad its still a long range forecast and a lot will change. I'm sure if you compared March 2010 and March 2011 rainfall for the area compared to this area, we are probably running at least 5-10" below the average of the past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Weenies will be weenies. Certain patterns produce cold and others produce warmth....this is one that produces cold. He also said that the friday before St. Patty's day when OKX went 50 for him would bust way warm....not a peep after the high was in the 40s. Its simple met 101 on certain patterns. Even within a warm regime, synoptic setups do not lie. you misunderstood my post. I stated that OKX's call for 50 would be too high. We reached 42 or 44 so I was right. Once the backdoor came through, I knew we wouldn't budge and we didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Your call of no more freezing temps looks good right now that you plastured all over the NE subforum. Yup, I busted hard on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Yup, I busted hard on that one. That was not a very smart prediction, given climatology. Even in very warm years, there is almost invariably a cold shot in late March or early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 That was not a very smart prediction, given climatology. Even in very warm years, there is almost invariably a cold shot in late March or early April. 100% correct. I got caught up in the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 It's ULL and cutoff low season, just because its been fairly dry and warm doesn't mean we won't get some typical early Spring weather. I'm sure we won't escape the entire Spring without at least one good noreaster. The 00z GFS had areas just to our south getting socked with several inches of rain over the next week or two, even though 06z shifted a tad its still a long range forecast and a lot will change. I'm sure if you compared March 2010 and March 2011 rainfall for the area compared to this area, we are probably running at least 5-10" below the average of the past two seasons. Im talking about the blocking. And I am not happy about it. Hopefully, its only a temporary 2-3 week thing and it breaks down for late April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 100% correct. I got caught up in the torch. Use this mistake as a forecasting lesson so that in the future you don't do it again. Don't become another noreaster27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 That was not a very smart prediction, given climatology. Even in very warm years, there is almost invariably a cold shot in late March or early April. yea.. you gotta figure on at least one cold shot, at the minimum... we've all been duped that summer had arrived. Sometimes I need to pinch myself and realize it's still March.. it was kind of a surreal two week period we had... but on the whole, Climo has been getting absolutely destroyed this season. In the U Albany forecast contest extended forecast game, the lowest human score is about -66 right now... then Climo has -678. If you preforecasted above climo for every single day for a 3-4 month period this winter, you'd actually do pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Use this mistake as a forecasting lesson so that in the future you don't do it again. Don't become another noreaster27. And its clear that the Greenland and arctic area has gone through a major pattern flip. You dont have to look at forecast models to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 yea.. you gotta figure on at least one cold shot, at the minimum... we've all been duped that summer had arrived. Sometimes I need to pinch myself and realize it's still March.. it was kind of a surreal two week period we had... but on the whole, Climo has been getting absolutely destroyed this season. In the U Albany forecast contest extended forecast game, the lowest human score is about -66 right now... then Climo has -678. If you preforecasted above climo for every single day for a 3-4 month period this winter, you'd actually do pretty darn good. It is kind of amazing. But the late march early April cold shot is almost as reliable as the January thaw. Even in a cold and snowy winter, we usually warm up for several days in late January, before the pattern reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Plants look ok here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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