rossi Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members I agree completely - and the terrible analysis goes hand in hand - all forums should have analysis only done by those qualified to give analysis. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!". Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from. He lives in SWCT. Along with Brian45679823, they are both on the cusp of accumulating snow. Albeit, only 1"-3" probably, but still. Northern Bronx/Westchester are right on the cusp as well. Many posters who are just north of NYC have a chance at accumulating snow. Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from Westchester, Northern Bronx, SWCT, lower Hudson Valley, etc. who have a decent shot at some snow tomorrow and are just as much part of the nyc metro forum as anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from I feel like I got a shout out there. Luckily I'm near Philly now so this can't apply to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest. For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!". Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from. he lives near me. couple of towns over. So when he claims to have 6 inches, the voice of reason will come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe we should break the forum up into the northern half of NYC: Westchester, SW CT, Rockland and a few of the NJ zones, then Long Island by itself and then the City and the rest of Jersey. The weather in these areas can be quite different as this storm would suggest. Yeah, agree, I think we should break the forum up into towns actually. Often times in the summer I'm at 90F and a few miles down the road in Eatontown it's 86-87F. I simply can't discuss weather with people that much colder than me in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself. Yeah that's one of my pet peeves. It's really amazing even in 2012 how schools don't stress the importance of this subject enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue These types of tight gradients so close to NYC, usually occur during swfevents. The 2008-2009 winter is a classic example. 22" in JFK 30" in LGA 34" in NE Queens 45"-50" in SWCT/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 He lives in SWCT. Along with Brian45679823, they are both on the cusp of accumulating snow. Albeit, only 1"-3" probably, but still. Northern Bronx/Westchester are right on the cusp as well. Many posters who are just north of NYC have a chance at accumulating snow. Its annoying for these posters to keep hearing about no snow for LI or NYC or Monmouth County and ignore the many posters who are from Westchester, Northern Bronx, SWCT, lower Hudson Valley, etc. who have a decent shot at some snow tomorrow and are just as much part of the nyc metro forum as anyone. When you're arguing over 2" of snow, you know it's a rough winter. Honestly, everyone needs to chill. It's been bad for everybody since October, and no one is begrudging anybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 For Christ's sake, no. 95% of the time it's not an issue Well, then for Christ's sake people should stop complaining and arguing over this. It is beyond annoying. At least some of the area will see flakes. At this point that is cause for excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well, then for Christ's sake people should stop complaining and arguing over this. It is beyond annoying. At least some of the area will see flakes. At this point that is cause for excitement. Agreed. Im excited that areas in the NYC metro zone have a shot at decent snow with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 upton going mostly rain for all but interior SE NY state and Interior S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Forecast for NYC Wednesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 45. East wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: Rain, mainly before 5am. Low around 38. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 and btw, even though this will be a mainly rain event for us down here in Monmouth County, and may only see a few flakes in the beginning, it's still fun to track this storm and am rooting for you guys in the north to get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm hoping for a thump like last week-it's a tough forecast--could see us with zip or 3 inches...would not want to have to issue a TV forecast tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm hoping for a thump like last week-it's a tough forecast--could see us with zip or 3 inches...would not want to have to issue a TV forecast tonight.... If the GFS is correct, even NE CT will see mostly rain. 40's+ at the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton's on Long Island where little/no snow will likely fall. Obviously, they're biased too warm and just want to "project" at everybody else. Just ask Trials. NAM hugging I guess: THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS DAMMING...HOWEVER THE COLDER NAM GUIDANCE IS WARMER THAN ITS 00Z RUN. THEREFORE..HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT. Slightly warmed a bit, lol. So now with the NAM cooler again at 18z ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If the GFS is correct, even NE CT will see mostly rain. 40's+ at the surface: Forget about those smoothed temp graphics, you really have to look at soundings. Although look at the wind direction-it's out of the SE. Not pretty at all near a coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Forget about those smoothed temp graphics, you really have to look at soundings. Although look at the wind direction-it's out of the SE. Not pretty at all near a coast. Im aware. Soundings are not out yet. Just pointing out the big time warm push on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why even bother anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 and btw, even though this will be a mainly rain event for us down here in Monmouth County, and may only see a few flakes in the beginning, it's still fun to track this storm and am rooting for you guys in the north to get a few inches. Completely agree, except I'm rooting for everyone to get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 upstate ny is not getting 20" from a swfe 10:1 ratio map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If the GFS is correct, even NE CT will see mostly rain. 40's+ at the surface: That looks to be before the precip moves in. At 21z that 40 deg. line is back down to the coast. Still too warm for most of CT but not quite as warm as the 24 hr map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 That looks to be before the precip moves in. At 21z that 40 deg. line is back down to the coast. Still too warm for most of CT but not quite as warm as the 24 hr map shows. also, notice that the flow is less ageostrophic than the nam, probably a result of better resolution. the bigger problems are above 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 upstate ny is not getting 20" from a swfe 10:1 ratio map http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Winter weather advisory here in New Paltz, near Poughkeepsie. I know I'm not really part of the nyc metro, but there's more activity in this forum than the other. I'm expecting more than 2-4" but that's an unknown just with the complex factors involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Forecast for NYC Wednesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 45. East wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: Rain, mainly before 5am. Low around 38. East wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. I hope they bust miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 P008 at hour 126-138 is a sensible solution: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Completely agree, except I'm rooting for everyone to get nothing. me too-this could screw up some futility records...and with a torch coming, I'd rather root that on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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