MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i understand that models underestimate the cold air, but in this case where is the cold air to dam? There is colder air up north. Also, there is a nice high up north. It's possible that the models are underestimating cad, since they always do. 0z runs should be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 There is colder air up north. Also, there is a nice high up north. It's possible that the models are underestimating cad, since they always do. 0z runs should be telling. But it is 50 degrees out and the lows will be in low 30s if were lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 But it is 50 degrees out and the lows will be in low 30s if were lucky. I have seen 60s one day and snow the next day in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I went to college in Boulder and it was 75 degrees at noon and at 1:30pm it was 30 with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sigh... My thoughts exactly. Are people really excited for a couple hours of wet flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My thoughts exactly. Are people really excited for a couple hours of wet flakes? It will be nice to (hopefully) see flakes come down, but what use is it if there's no accumulation? We have to hope the soundings are dead wrong, otherwise I just don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 People forget this is the NYC METRO subforum, not the NYC and LI subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My thoughts exactly. Are people really excited for a couple hours of wet flakes? you live near Philly, i can see why you aren't expecting anything. But plenty of people aruond NYC metro will more than a couple hours of wet flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sigh... Funny, because that's what almost EVERYONE does when we see your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My thoughts exactly. Are people really excited for a couple hours of wet flakes? All hi-res models and now the 18z NAM have .35"-.50" of precip during the 1st 3 hours of the event. Even if the snow has a hard time sticking, that is a lot of precip for only 3 hours. Even if it is sleet/snow, will still be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 People forget this is the NYC METRO subforum, not the NYC and LI subforum. Its unbelievable really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Seriously. Areas within 20 miles of NYC have a shot at decent snow with this storm. Even SWCT is right on the cusp of receiving a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Seriously. Areas within 20 miles of NYC have a shot at decent snow with this storm. Even SWCT is right on the cusp of receiving a couple inches. NAM says we do, I posted the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://geography.about.com/od/specificplacesofinterest/a/nymetroarea.htm Really curious as to how no one in the NY metro area sees accumulations....especially considering the oft bashed for being too conservative Upton calling for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton continues to bust almost 10 degrees on my zone and it's a 12 hour forecast. They went lower 30's last night. It was 40. As of their 11:30 AM forecast today, that had highs in the lower 40's and it hit 50 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM says we do, I posted the soundings. The 18z nam is always overdone on precip. While I don't disagree that we'll see something, it won't be on the order of what the NAM is showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton continues to bust almost 10 degrees on my zone and it's a 12 hour forecast. They went lower 30's last night. It was 40. As of their 11:30 AM forecast today, that had highs in the lower 40's and it hit 50 this afternoon. This torch winter shows no boundaries of how high we can go. Someone posted in the storm thread, source regions have no snowcover, we have no snowcover.....big part of the reason why I think this spring will be really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Its unbelievable really. it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://geography.abo...nymetroarea.htm Really curious as to how no one in the NY metro area sees accumulations....especially considering the oft bashed for being too conservative Upton calling for it. Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland. GFS also showed a coastal for next week in its 6z run but was pretty weak for 12z, plenty cold too though; as many here have said, that time frame could be our last chance of seeing snow in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself. I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also. But if it is, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 also unbelievable that these same adults actually have strong emotions about a non snowy winter... something is wrong with a lot of our forum members Being on a weather forum alone, means something is wrong with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also. But id it does, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow. Yeah, thats pretty much where i am right now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 it's more unbelievable that grown adults get hardons over a few inches of snow on their cartop that vanishes after 5 hrs. FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 These Upton snowmaps are like a ping pong game, at least for inland fairfield county. Danbury has gone from 3.9 midday yesterday to 0.7 last night to 4.1 this morning and now down to 1.4. Are these things computer generated or done by people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ryan H from the NE thread has some good thoughts-has 1 inch or less for CT shoreline. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Funny, because that's what almost EVERYONE does when we see your posts. Funny, I can at least give some reasoning behind what I'm saying besides your "those storms with the big H north of us always come in colder!! Always!111!!!". Enjoy your 2" of snow, wherever you come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 These Upton snowmaps are like a ping pong game, at least for inland fairfield county. Danbury has gone from 3.9 midday yesterday to 0.7 last night to 4.1 this morning and now down to 1.4. Are these things computer generated or done by people? Upton's on Long Island where little/no snow will likely fall. Obviously, they're biased too warm and just want to "project" at everybody else. Just ask Trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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