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2012 March Banter Thread


CooL

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My thoughts exactly. Are people really excited for a couple hours of wet flakes?

All hi-res models and now the 18z NAM have .35"-.50" of precip during the 1st 3 hours of the event.

Even if the snow has a hard time sticking, that is a lot of precip for only 3 hours.

Even if it is sleet/snow, will still be fun.

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UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland.

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Upton continues to bust almost 10 degrees on my zone and it's a 12 hour forecast. They went lower 30's last night. It was 40. As of their 11:30 AM forecast today, that had highs in the lower 40's and it hit 50 this afternoon.

This torch winter shows no boundaries of how high we can go. Someone posted in the storm thread, source regions have no snowcover, we have no snowcover.....big part of the reason why I think this spring will be really nice.

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http://geography.abo...nymetroarea.htm

Really curious as to how no one in the NY metro area sees accumulations....especially considering the oft bashed for being too conservative Upton calling for it.

Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself. :P

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UKMET from the longer range maps looks interesting... I have no idea if it's cold enough but it develops a stronger coastal low at hour 120, but it could just as easily be one of its typically exaggerated long range storms. I'm not so sure I'm buying the way the models are currently handling the lakes cutter storm, especially the western ones; we haven't seen a single low pressure take a track that far west through Quebec in the entire winter, and the last several times the models tried to show stronger storms through the Great Lakes, they trended weaker and more suppressed. I definitely don't expect any snowstorm on Saturday as there's nothing really forcing it south, but it would not surprise me if the storm ends up weaker, further southeast, and colder for NYC than the latest models are showing, with perhaps some sort of a secondary low development possible, although especially with the progressive pattern, should that happen I'd think that it would be more likely to stay offshore than to track inland.

GFS also showed a coastal for next week in its 6z run but was pretty weak for 12z, plenty cold too though; as many here have said, that time frame could be our last chance of seeing snow in a while...

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Fwiw, Im still skeptical we can get get heavy enough precip to see any slushy accumulations.....my comments are merely in regard to the apparent lack of geographical knowledge here, not necessarily the forecast itself. :P

I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also.

But if it is, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow.

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I'm skeptical of the initial onset being as heavy as some of the hi-res models have it also.

But id it does, areas just north of the city and maybe even into northern parts of NYC, will have a couple hours of fun tomorrow.

Yeah, thats pretty much where i am right now too.

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These Upton snowmaps are like a ping pong game, at least for inland fairfield county. Danbury has gone from 3.9 midday yesterday to 0.7 last night to 4.1 this morning and now down to 1.4. Are these things computer generated or done by people?

Upton's on Long Island where little/no snow will likely fall. Obviously, they're biased too warm and just want to "project" at everybody else. Just ask Trials.

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