supermeh Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Awesome! Hoping for a cold and wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I hope that is wrong. I would average humid wet summer with lots of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 That's a lovely map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 That map seems awfully cool--the entirely US is going to have a below normal summer? (although for us, we are closer to average) Given the sustained warm for the past several months and the major switch from La Nina to possibly El Nino, I would think our weather pattern also goes into a major overhaul but I'm not sure exactly what will happen. I would be above normal obviously but we'll what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 That map seems awfully cool--the entirely US is going to have a below normal summer? (although for us, we are closer to average) -1 surface temps in the NE is not that cool. I'm more interested to see the # of 90+ degree days more then the actual average temperature. For me, the true mark of a hot summer is # of 90+ degree days. The last 5 months have had a +4 to +6 anomaly in NYC. That really can not be sustained. The last month that was normal was October, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Huge bust coming for Earthlight, he predicted a few pages back at least +8 for each month of the summer season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Looks like 0 to -1 departure here. Sounds like a typically hot but not excessive summer. Sound good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Huge bust coming for Earthlight, he predicted a few pages back at least +8 for each month of the summer season. Anything past +4 is extremely hard in NYC for June, July and August. Even during last years torch of a summer NYC was only: +1.1 for June +3.7 for July + .1 for August LGA was similar: +1.2 for June +3.3 for July - .3 for August But the true measurement, IMO, is the number of 90+ degree days and in 2010 and 2011, the number was much higher then average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Right. 2002 continued warm and dry for the spring but not overly so. By late summer we got into a much cooler, wetter pattern leading into the great 02-03 winter. -1 surface temps in the NE is not that cool. I'm more interested to see the # of 90+ degree days more then the actual average temperature. For me, the true mark of a hot summer is # of 90+ degree days. The last 5 months have had a +4 to +6 anomaly in NYC. That really can not be sustained. The last month that was normal was October, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Right. 2002 continued warm and dry for the spring but not overly so. By late summer we got into a much cooler, wetter pattern leading into the great 02-03 winter. Was that a transition from a Nina and into a Nino as well? It appears Nino is taking over fast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The tried and true wisdom is that the climate does tend to equal out over the long haul. Unfortunately the equilibrium point for winter temperaturea in our area has clearly been rising, but the consolation prize is that the equilibrium point for snowfall may be rising too. I don't think the boom bust cycle of winters will ever end, regardless of where the averages end up. I just don't want to end up like DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 That map seems awfully cool--the entirely US is going to have a below normal summer? (although for us, we are closer to average) it had the same forecast for last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The tried and true wisdom is that the climate does tend to equal out over the long haul. Unfortunately the equilibrium point for winter temperaturea in our area has clearly been rising, but the consolation prize is that the equilibrium point for snowfall may be rising too. I don't think the boom bust cycle of winters will ever end, regardless of where the averages end up. I just don't want to end up like DC. Ending up like DC is more a function of latitude in terms of storm impacts, meaning many storms form too late for them and early enough to impact us. So at least we have that on our side, despite slowly warming temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 it had the same forecast for last summer At least it got Alaska right for November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 it had the same forecast for last summer I think it was cool for 2010 as well. 2002 argues that the warmth can continue beyond the spring while other warm winter/spring analogs lean cooler for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Are the dry conditions right now temporary or are we possibly entering a drier pattern for the spring? There hasn't been a lot of rain so far this year and the pattern through mid March doesn't look so stormy with the exception of the cutoff low. I've learned not to bet on a prolonged or lingering dry pattern based on recent years history. But things have to change at some point, just doubt thats this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2012 Author Share Posted March 6, 2012 We are barely even below average on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The models have been great within 10 days................I think we should lock in that forecast for the summer. Bring on the heat! Hotter the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 We are barely even below average on that map Already mentioned that. Only shows -1 or so for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I don't think 01-02 was a nina but 02-03 was a nino Was that a transition from a Nina and into a Nino as well? It appears Nino is taking over fast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 When I did my spring outlook for this season, I used 2002 as an analog. I did not get into summer but I think the second half of this spring will finish either at average or slightly BELOW average, but the spring as a whole will probably end just above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I don't think 01-02 was a nina but 02-03 was a nino 01-02 was la nada, maybe a tick on the negative side, but not classified as a nina. 02-03 was the ideal nino for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I don't think 01-02 was a nina but 02-03 was a nino I show the chart in my spring outlook. http://aeroweather.org/2012/03/04/spring-2012-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Summer of 2009 would be nice given how extremely hot it was in '10 and '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I agree, though I know we're in the minority and will be tarred and feathered for the sheer mention of such an occurrence. Summer of 2009 would be nice given how extremely hot it was in '10 and '11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 01-02 was la nada, maybe a tick on the negative side, but not classified as a nina. 02-03 was the ideal nino for the northeast. Yup and even if 01-02 was considered nina I believe it was a third year nina. Not quite the same situation we are going into in 12-13 but if we can get something like 02-03 next winter it will make this past winter less painful for sure. If there is an indication we are heading into a weak Nino similar to 02-03 by the time late September, early October comes around I will climb up Bear Mountain in NY again like I did in October 2002. It was Saturday October 5th, it was 75 when I got to the peak and by the time I got back down the temperature had dropped like a rock. Didn't make it to that temperature again until April 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 I agree, though I know we're in the minority and will be tarred and feathered for the sheer mention of such an occurrence. I am with you guys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The models have been great within 10 days................I think we should lock in that forecast for the summer. Bring on the heat! Hotter the better. Barf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Barf Hotter the better dont want that but a few stretches of 85+ days with minimal humidity or atleast bearable would be nice. Nothing good about 100+ temps with 75 dewpoints and 90% humidity ughhh that is nasty just wanna hug the A/C vent in that weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 Hotter the better dont want that but a few stretches of 85+ days with minimal humidity or atleast bearable would be nice. Nothing good about 100+ temps with 75 dewpoints and 90% humidity ughhh that is nasty just wanna hug the A/C vent in that weather You realize that what I just boldened makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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