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2012 March Banter Thread


CooL

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That map seems awfully cool--the entirely US is going to have a below normal summer? (although for us, we are closer to average)

Given the sustained warm for the past several months and the major switch from La Nina to possibly El Nino, I would think our weather pattern also goes into a major overhaul but I'm not sure exactly what will happen. I would be above normal obviously but we'll what happens.

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That map seems awfully cool--the entirely US is going to have a below normal summer? (although for us, we are closer to average)

-1 surface temps in the NE is not that cool.

I'm more interested to see the # of 90+ degree days more then the actual average temperature. For me, the true mark of a hot summer is # of 90+ degree days.

The last 5 months have had a +4 to +6 anomaly in NYC. That really can not be sustained. The last month that was normal was October, 2011.

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Huge bust coming for Earthlight, he predicted a few pages back at least +8 for each month of the summer season.

Anything past +4 is extremely hard in NYC for June, July and August. Even during last years torch of a summer NYC was only:

+1.1 for June

+3.7 for July

+ .1 for August

LGA was similar:

+1.2 for June

+3.3 for July

- .3 for August

But the true measurement, IMO, is the number of 90+ degree days and in 2010 and 2011, the number was much higher then average.

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Right. 2002 continued warm and dry for the spring but not overly so. By late summer we got into a much cooler, wetter pattern leading into the great 02-03 winter.

-1 surface temps in the NE is not that cool.

I'm more interested to see the # of 90+ degree days more then the actual average temperature. For me, the true mark of a hot summer is # of 90+ degree days.

The last 5 months have had a +4 to +6 anomaly in NYC. That really can not be sustained. The last month that was normal was October, 2011.

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Right. 2002 continued warm and dry for the spring but not overly so. By late summer we got into a much cooler, wetter pattern leading into the great 02-03 winter.

Was that a transition from a Nina and into a Nino as well?

It appears Nino is taking over fast right now.

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The tried and true wisdom is that the climate does tend to equal out over the long haul. Unfortunately the equilibrium point for winter temperaturea in our area has clearly been rising, but the consolation prize is that the equilibrium point for snowfall may be rising too. I don't think the boom bust cycle of winters will ever end, regardless of where the averages end up. I just don't want to end up like DC.

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The tried and true wisdom is that the climate does tend to equal out over the long haul. Unfortunately the equilibrium point for winter temperaturea in our area has clearly been rising, but the consolation prize is that the equilibrium point for snowfall may be rising too. I don't think the boom bust cycle of winters will ever end, regardless of where the averages end up. I just don't want to end up like DC.

Ending up like DC is more a function of latitude in terms of storm impacts, meaning many storms form too late for them and early enough to impact us. So at least we have that on our side, despite slowly warming temps.

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Are the dry conditions right now temporary or are we possibly entering a drier pattern for the spring? There hasn't been a lot of rain so far this year and the pattern through mid March doesn't look so stormy with the exception of the cutoff low.

I've learned not to bet on a prolonged or lingering dry pattern based on recent years history. But things have to change at some point, just doubt thats this year.

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When I did my spring outlook for this season, I used 2002 as an analog. I did not get into summer but I think the second half of this spring will finish either at average or slightly BELOW average, but the spring as a whole will probably end just above average.

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01-02 was la nada, maybe a tick on the negative side, but not classified as a nina.

02-03 was the ideal nino for the northeast.

Yup and even if 01-02 was considered nina I believe it was a third year nina. Not quite the same situation we are going into in 12-13 but if we can get something like 02-03 next winter it will make this past winter less painful for sure. If there is an indication we are heading into a weak Nino similar to 02-03 by the time late September, early October comes around I will climb up Bear Mountain in NY again like I did in October 2002. It was Saturday October 5th, it was 75 when I got to the peak and by the time I got back down the temperature had dropped like a rock. Didn't make it to that temperature again until April 15th.

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Hotter the better dont want that but a few stretches of 85+ days with minimal humidity or atleast bearable would be nice. Nothing good about 100+ temps with 75 dewpoints and 90% humidity ughhh that is nasty just wanna hug the A/C vent in that weather

You realize that what I just boldened makes no sense.

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