CooL Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 I wouldn't say it's unprecedented but it's very rare. High Risks are rare to begin with. I believe there was a high risk on March 12 2006 but don't hold me to it. I know it was somewhere around that time in 2006. High Risk events are a special breed...prayers to everybody involved or in the risk area. Just glancing at the forecast guidance it looks like there could be several discrete supercells within an area of strong instability with scary-supportive shear...it could get pretty ugly. I think SPC has it pinned down pretty well..but the high risk could extend a little south of where they have it if you ask me. I guess the moderate risk 15/45/45 probabilities with hatching will cover it. yeah, it's gonna get bad. new PDS watch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Still had 14"-15" in NYC before that storm. Add the HECS in February and it was a very good winter. 2002-2005 were great as well. I really thought winter was over in January when we torched.I got 16 inches of snow from the 2006 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 2002-2006 was amazing also. It's been a crazy decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It's been a crazy decade. Yes it has been except for 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and now this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yes it has been except for 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and now this winter by crazy I was alluding to the ups and downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 by crazy I was alluding to the ups and downs Gotcha. The 2006-2007 was a horrible winter but I found those sleetstorms interesting because I never experienced one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Gotcha. The 2006-2007 was a horrible winter but I found those sleetstorms interesting because I never experienced one before. Those sleetstorms were pretty cool actually, never had a 6"+ all sleet storm before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Those sleetstorms were pretty cool actually, never had a 6"+ all sleet storm before. Wasn't the Feb 14, 2007 storm supposed to change over to heavy rain at one point? It was interesting to observe a plain sleet storm, but it was a nighmare to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Those sleetstorms were pretty cool actually, never had a 6"+ all sleet storm before. I had 19 hours of sleet with temps in the lower to mid 20's in the Valentines Day storm. I received 4 inches of sleet after a little snow at the start of the event. Temps started off in the teens with the storm. 2 days before this event, the weathermen on t.v were forecasting a blizzard for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I know all of us as weather enthusiasts love tracking severe weather events but like a few of you said death toll has to be of concern with an outbreak like this. Just gotta hope and pray that another joplin or tuscaloosa disaster doesnt occur again. Gonna be a scary day for those in that high risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Wasn't the Feb 14, 2007 storm supposed to change over to heavy rain at one point? It was interesting to observe a plain sleet storm, but it was a nighmare to shovel. The track of the storm wasn't good for the area. I think the low level cold was really impressive. It never got out of the 20's. It was a pain in the ass to shovel. It took me 2-3 hours to shovel around my ass. The good thing is that it stayed on the ground for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Wasn't the Feb 14, 2007 storm supposed to change over to heavy rain at one point? It was interesting to observe a plain sleet storm, but it was a nighmare to shovel. The south shore had heavy freezing rain for a time. I was at PSU at the time (where we had about a foot of cementlike glop), but in Long Beach there was a heavy glazing from what I was told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It was cool because we've never experienced anything like it but it was also disappointing because if the storm track was a bit further east, we could have seen a couple nice MECS that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The St Patricks day storm that winter was also a sleet storm for the area. It also took a bad track for the area. I think the pattern changed at the end of January that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 that storm was horrible...the primary tracked into the tennessee valley. the low level cold was incredible but the mid level warmth couldn't be stopped. it was 20 F with heavy sleet .. I hope to g-d I never see anything like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 that storm was horrible...the primary tracked into the tennessee valley. the low level cold was incredible but the mid level warmth couldn't be stopped. it was 20 F with heavy sleet .. I hope to g-d I never see anything like that again. Are there any soundings from that storm? That must've been interesting to see, mid level warmth while sleeting with temperatures in the 10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think it was in the 80s a couple days before that St. Patty's day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 that storm was horrible...the primary tracked into the tennessee valley. the low level cold was incredible but the mid level warmth couldn't be stopped. it was 20 F with heavy sleet .. I hope to g-d I never see anything like that again. We had ice storm warnings for the storm. I think the forecasts had higher low level temperatures than what we saw so they forecast more freezing rain than sleet. Thank god it was sleet instead of freezing rain or it could have been a disastrous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 The St Patricks day storm that winter was also a sleet storm for the area. It also took a bad track for the area. I think the pattern changed at the end of January that winter. whenever i see heights pointed straight up the coast like that into canada, i look away. There are exceptions but usually with a setup like that with no blocking, we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 that storm was horrible...the primary tracked into the tennessee valley. the low level cold was incredible but the mid level warmth couldn't be stopped. it was 20 F with heavy sleet .. I hope to g-d I never see anything like that again. It was 13-17F in State College with the same heavy sleet. When the snow started it was 10-12F. There were campus wide snowball fights among different dorm groups (East vs. Pollock I remember) among hundreds of students. It definitely made some fun out of my huge disappointment at the sleet line making it about 100 miles north of where it was supposed to a day or 2 earlier. We were supposed to get up to 20"+ of snow like much of southern/central NY had. Sleet made it all the way to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 it was 20 F with heavy sleet .. I hope to g-d I never see anything like that again. I felt like knives falling down from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 whenever i see heights pointed straight up the coast like that into canada, i look away. There are exceptions but usually with a setup like that with no blocking, we get screwed. Storms that take this track are rain for the area. This storm was an exception though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The storm certainly made things more complex than I ever knew. I use to think if it was above 32, it would rain and 32 or below, it would snow. Sleet was that gray area that I never understood before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 GFS is cold for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Its flurrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Its flurrying. Pictures or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsh Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Flurries in Greenwich> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Its flurrying. Yea, I saw some earlier while running this morning. Last gasp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Pictures or it didn't happen I actually did take a pic....but i was laughing too hard when my wife called me a lunatic for "taking pictures for those other weather weirdo internet friends" and the pic was blurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yea, I saw some earlier while running this morning. Last gasp? Nah....we'll get a storm in late march that kills all the budding trees and plants, melts in 2 days, just so mother nature can kick us in the teeth one more time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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