SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Tonight's gfs really knocked down the major torch for the second week of March, the orientation of the high off the coast makes me wonder about those backdoor cold fronts and easterly flow preventing a major warm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I notice on the board that people care about. Thunderstorms are excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 i realized this could be my last winter here in LI--all depends on what i do after grad... really want to stay here and work at one of the airports around.. but if not, could go to SC (B 787 plant) or worse, go back to Philippines (which isn't really a bad thing since the Tropical Season will make up for it lol)... bye snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Super tease So much energy coming down. The probelm is that the trough doesn't want to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Super tease So much energy coming down. The probelm is that the trough doesn't want to go negative. The flow is too damn fast. Doesnt allow that strong vort to amplify. In almost any other pattern, that would be a large east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 3 years ago today The flow is too damn fast. Doesnt allow that strong vort to amplify. In almost any other pattern, that would be a large east coast storm. The story of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Wow.. --SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES-- THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 3 years ago today The story of this winter. One of my favorite storms because of the screw job Mt. Earthlight received. If only every storm was like that.........a weenie can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 It will be interesting to see if NYC can briefly get into the second round of rain/thunderstorms early on Saturday morning after the main round overnight... Most of the storms will stay to the south but the NAM's still showing some of it making it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 One of my favorite storms because of the screw job Mt. Earthlight received. If only every storm was like that.........a weenie can dream. Last storm that the NGM had before it retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 3 years ago today Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC. cry us a river. Your area has seen multiple 30 inch events the last three winters, no one here is going to feel bad you missed out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC. I did a little better than you. I think I got 7" or so. But was predicted to get quite a bit more, and it never really snowed heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 cry us a river. Your area has seen multiple 30 inch events the last three winters, no one here is going to feel bad you missed out on this one. I missed out on those 30 inch events as well... they stayed to my west, towards western Bergen and south of there towards west of Newark, eastern Bergen county still got hit hard but not as hard as places further west. The heaviest snow bands of the Dec 2010 blizzard missed me just to the west, places there had up to 30 inches and I measured about 18-20 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC. That was the 2nd round. NYC did really well with the 2nd round. The 1st round wasn't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I was also supposed to get about 10-16 inches or so... that failed badly. That was the snow map Upton made the day before that storm, which I still have on my computer: The dry slot went from the SW to NE, not SSW to NNE, which explains why you got more than I did. These were the observed snow totals (from Ray's winter storm archive): Wrong storm NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I was also supposed to get about 10-16 inches or so... that failed badly. That was the snow map Upton made the day before that storm, which I still have on my computer: The dry slot went from the SW to NE, not SSW to NNE, which explains why you got more than I did. These were the observed snow totals (from Ray's winter storm archive): That's the wrong map you have posted. That's the Dec 2010 storm, which I recorded around 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 That's the wrong map you have posted. That's the Dec 2010 storm, which I recorded around 11". Wrong storm NYC Thanks for that... my computer just recovered from a crash, wrong presentation opened up. I'll get the right pics in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 One of my favorite storms because of the screw job Mt. Earthlight received. If only every storm was like that.........a weenie can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The observed snow map was the right one, that showed the dry slot went from SW to NE: Most forecasts from what I have had about close to 12 inches near NYC... the NAM/GFS from the day before that storm also had about a little over 1" QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The observed snow map was the right one, that showed the dry slot went from SW to NE: Most forecasts from what I have had about close to 12 inches near NYC... the NAM/GFS from the day before that storm also had about a little over 1" QPF: NYC recorded close to 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 A high risk in early march is unprecedented..Wow! Storms are already bad out there. Sadly there might be a healthy death toll by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'll always remember that storm as the first "big one" ...it really was the intro to a historical period of winter storms that would follow. I also consider this past Octobers storm the finale of that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 A high risk in early march is unprecedented..Wow! Storms are already bad out there. Sadly there might be a healthy death toll by tomorrow morning. I wouldn't say it's unprecedented but it's very rare. High Risks are rare to begin with. I believe there was a high risk on March 12 2006 but don't hold me to it. I know it was somewhere around that time in 2006. High Risk events are a special breed...prayers to everybody involved or in the risk area. Just glancing at the forecast guidance it looks like there could be several discrete supercells within an area of strong instability with scary-supportive shear...it could get pretty ugly. I think SPC has it pinned down pretty well..but the high risk could extend a little south of where they have it if you ask me. I guess the moderate risk 15/45/45 probabilities with hatching will cover it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'll always remember that storm as the first "big one" ...it really was the intro to a historical period of winter storms that would follow. I also consider this past Octobers storm the finale of that period. 2002-2006 was amazing also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 2002-2006 was amazing also. If it wasn't for the Feb 11-12, 2006 storm, that winter would have sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 NYC recorded close to 10 inches NYC and Long Island were close to the expectations if I remember correctly. Those models showed nearly 1" QPF here as well yet I had only 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 NYC and Long Island were close to the expectations if I remember correctly. Those models showed nearly 1" QPF here as well yet I had only 4 inches. There was a tight gradient from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If it wasn't for the Feb 11-12, 2006 storm, that winter would have sucked. Still had 14"-15" in NYC before that storm. Add the HECS in February and it was a very good winter. 2002-2005 were great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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