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2012 March Banter Thread


CooL

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i realized this could be my last winter here in LI--all depends on what i do after grad... really want to stay here and work at one of the airports around.. but if not, could go to SC (B 787 plant) or worse, go back to Philippines (which isn't really a bad thing since the Tropical Season will make up for it lol)... :cry: bye snow

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Super tease

So much energy coming down. The probelm is that the trough doesn't want to go negative.

The flow is too damn fast. Doesnt allow that strong vort to amplify.

In almost any other pattern, that would be a large east coast storm.

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Wow..

--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE

POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST

LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM

SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE

FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO

EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE

AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN

THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER

FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH

PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH

RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH

AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH

THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

day1otlk_1300.gif

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3 years ago today

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Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC.

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Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC.

cry us a river. Your area has seen multiple 30 inch events the last three winters, no one here is going to feel bad you missed out on this one.

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Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC.

I did a little better than you. I think I got 7" or so. But was predicted to get quite a bit more, and it never really snowed heavily.

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cry us a river. Your area has seen multiple 30 inch events the last three winters, no one here is going to feel bad you missed out on this one.

I missed out on those 30 inch events as well... they stayed to my west, towards western Bergen and south of there towards west of Newark, eastern Bergen county still got hit hard but not as hard as places further west. The heaviest snow bands of the Dec 2010 blizzard missed me just to the west, places there had up to 30 inches and I measured about 18-20 or so.

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Worst storm of that winter IMBY... that dry slot killed everything, places to my west and east got 6-8+ inches, I barely got 4 inches and the grass was even visible just to my west. And then there was also the second "round" that almost completely dissipated before reaching NYC.

That was the 2nd round. NYC did really well with the 2nd round. The 1st round wasn't that impressive.

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I was also supposed to get about 10-16 inches or so... that failed badly. That was the snow map Upton made the day before that storm, which I still have on my computer:

The dry slot went from the SW to NE, not SSW to NNE, which explains why you got more than I did. These were the observed snow totals (from Ray's winter storm archive):

Wrong storm NYC

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I was also supposed to get about 10-16 inches or so... that failed badly. That was the snow map Upton made the day before that storm, which I still have on my computer:

The dry slot went from the SW to NE, not SSW to NNE, which explains why you got more than I did. These were the observed snow totals (from Ray's winter storm archive):

That's the wrong map you have posted. That's the Dec 2010 storm, which I recorded around 11".

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The observed snow map was the right one, that showed the dry slot went from SW to NE:

Most forecasts from what I have had about close to 12 inches near NYC... the NAM/GFS from the day before that storm also had about a little over 1" QPF:

post-1753-0-22556500-1330703584.jpg

NYC recorded close to 10 inches

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A high risk in early march is unprecedented..Wow! Storms are already bad out there. Sadly there might be a healthy death toll by tomorrow morning.

I wouldn't say it's unprecedented but it's very rare. High Risks are rare to begin with. I believe there was a high risk on March 12 2006 but don't hold me to it. I know it was somewhere around that time in 2006.

High Risk events are a special breed...prayers to everybody involved or in the risk area. Just glancing at the forecast guidance it looks like there could be several discrete supercells within an area of strong instability with scary-supportive shear...it could get pretty ugly. I think SPC has it pinned down pretty well..but the high risk could extend a little south of where they have it if you ask me. I guess the moderate risk 15/45/45 probabilities with hatching will cover it.

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I'll always remember that storm as the first "big one" ...it really was the intro to a historical period of winter storms that would follow. I also consider this past Octobers storm the finale of that period.

2002-2006 was amazing also.

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