TheTrials Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 notice p008 still showing the monster storm...it's also showing a huge storm in western canada which pumps up the ridge. the more amplified ensemble members have a stronger storm north of the international border post 100 hrs. yeah, i zoomed in and posted 008 above. Forky is right, if its just a ho hum vort it won't do it by itself, we either need extreme amplification or southern stream phasing its something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 well, on the plus side, we have cold air, a ridge out west with no kickers, and some ridging into greenland, albeit it very temporary. The H5 energy of the northern stream also continues to trend strong, at least on the gfs. On the minus sidge, it appears, at least right no, that we aren't going to get much help or any from the southern stream, the pattern is still progressive, and its THIS winter. Expect nothing, but keep both eyes on it IMHO. Pretty much agree w/ your analysis. Something to watch, but still a long shot to get a significant snow given the progressive nature of this pattern. Heavy reliance on the northern short wave itself to pump heights out ahead, slow itself down, etc, which is somewhat difficult to accomplish w/o 50-50 vortex or downstream blocking. But nevertheless this is probably our last threat of snow for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Isotherm is posting....we await with bated breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Pretty much agree w/ your analysis. Something to watch, but still a long shot to get a significant snow given the progressive nature of this pattern. Heavy reliance on the northern short wave itself to pump heights out ahead, slow itself down, etc, which is somewhat difficult to accomplish w/o 50-50 vortex or downstream blocking. But nevertheless this is probably our last threat of snow for awhile. I will say - different than most set-ups this winter - we have the cold air, a fairly potent short wave; I think there's a decent chance for a couple inches of snow out of this (with lower potential for something else), which of course would be biblical in the non winter of 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Even though p006 was weaker with the Low Pressure than p008, it still managed to give a decent amount of precipitation in most of NJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I will say - different than most set-ups this winter - we have the cold air, a fairly potent short wave; I think there's a decent chance for a couple inches of snow out of this (with lower potential for something else), which of course would be biblical in the non winter of 2011-12. the cold is real, that much is certain. Say a prayer and rub your rabbits foot for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I will say - different than most set-ups this winter - we have the cold air, a fairly potent short wave; I think there's a decent chance for a couple inches of snow out of this (with lower potential for something else), which of course would be biblical in the non winter of 2011-12. The shortwave prior to it really sucks..it's so poorly timed. If the shortwave we're seeing modeled to drop down and give us our storm was coming into a slightly less broad flow..forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Would not be suprised if Boston Logan is virtually all rain for the balance of this the (2/29 - 3/1) event; JM's protests nonwithstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Would not be suprised if Boston Logan is virtually all rain for the balance of this the (2/29 - 3/1) event; JM's protests nonwithstanding... 010254 OVC007 5 -RABR 36 33 0817 162 002 009 NAM has them cooling down a little bit over hte next few hours..it looks like the 10m winds go from a more due E direction to a NE direction...I would think they'll flip back before the event is over. If it doesn't happen tonight or tomorrow morning..it will likely happen by 18-21z with the last batch of precipitation as the surface low gets going east of the cape. But I would think the best snows would be on the W-NW sides of RT 128 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Clipper still there, but weaker. No consistency yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Would not be suprised if Boston Logan is virtually all rain for the balance of this the (2/29 - 3/1) event; JM's protests nonwithstanding... IDK what "protests" you mean... If their winds veer more to the NNE, Boston stands a better chance at getting more snow and some decent accums, since the precip looks like it will re-develop over the area due to the approach of the 500mb trough and coastal low. If they stay east, they have a good chance at a bust. Heavy enough precip either way could flip them back to snow anyway at times. If I were to say a number right now for Logan I'd put it at 3" total. I think they still get snow as the coastal leaves and winds then do look like they veer to a northerly direction. The highest amounts look to be along the Berks, near ORH, and maybe up towards Concord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The vorticity on the 00z GFS looks like the same strung out, progressive piece of crap we've seen all winter. Nothing congealing into a more organized, potent short wave..just a disorganized mess. With nothing to slow down the flow, there's not much going for a stronger coastal low, but I still think there's a chance we can pop a weak low out of this w/ maybe some minor snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00Z GGEM total snow. Thought this might amuse some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The GGEM backed down from the earlier crazy solutions and now have a low just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Back to normal we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GGEM model beyond 72 hours is a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GGEM model beyond 72 hours is a waste of time. Correction. All the models past 72 hours have been a waste of time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00Z GGEM total snow. Thought this might amuse some people. lol. consider me amused. some of these models have a future in comedy, in case the weather gig ever falls thru. their advanced physics seemingly has given them an appreciation of sarcasm, and an ability to taunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Euro doesn't have a low for monday. It just shows scattered snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 One can argue the most exciting weather this month may occur on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 One can argue the most exciting weather this month may occur on Saturday. Hopefully. Watch we get screwed by that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Euro wins again, nothing can stop this model lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Actually, many GFS ensemble members are wetter than the OP. Though P006 is up to its usual: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf114.html Something like this needs a couple more days to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Actually, many GFS ensemble members are wetter than the OP. Though P006 is up to its usual: http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf114.html Something like this needs a couple more days to watch. we will probly get alittle bit of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A little bit of snow is better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Winter is over for the whole country next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Forky ftw.....even said winter was over back in december when the gulf low pop up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Atleast next winter will be better....17 of snow will feel like a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Record breaking snowfall winter coming up next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I predict another fail next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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