CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 One hell of a flip flop by okx. Just issued watches away from the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 6Z NAM does hit that front end thump hard in CT... I assume their watch/warning criteria is lower than here. One hell of a flip flop by okx. Just issued watches away from the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 6Z NAM does hit that front end thump hard in CT... I assume their watch/warning criteria is lower than here. Yeah I think it's 6" in 12hrs. I'm laughing because their afd yesterday said they were cutting totals to 0". Not sure why they'd do that given the available guidance at the time. The 6z nam looks great for a 3-6 kind of deal for front end thump followed by some Pingers and freezing drizzle. I expect virtually nothing here Thursday... All front end which is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro looked pretty good for this area as well. Nice to see it bump up with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro actually did what I mentioned earlier would happen. It came north a bit for a better thump for the I-90 region, but will introduce the chance of a mix just south into CT. However, not after a decent thump...that hasn;t changed. We'll have to watch for any trends from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Winter Storm Watch up here... but honestly, this is an advisory event up here. Expect nothing less. NAM looks real good for SNE front end thump...that's some serious WAA lift going on down there. Hoping you guys can pull out a good warning criteria snowfall down there. Almost 3" of new snow overnight, and snowing hard this morning, maybe winter's making a comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 anyone having any trouble accessing noaa.gov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro actually did what I mentioned earlier would happen. It came north a bit for a better thump for the I-90 region, but will introduce the chance of a mix just south into CT. However, not after a decent thump...that hasn;t changed. We'll have to watch for any trends from here on out. Thump and done here. Still maybe 6" if we are lucky tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thump and done here. Still maybe 6" if we are lucky tho Yeah I think my thinking hasn't changed much from yesterday...maybe a little mroe confident for >3" for my hood with the euro bump north. Still think 2-4" with maybe 5" for Kevin. Looking at things now, Still looks like fun for nrn mass and up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 06z GFS warmed a tick, but who really cares. It doesn't change much. The euro still is trending north with the H5 low driving this whole storm. So, this fits well with storm 1 coming further north on the euro. We'll have to see how that looks on the runs today, because it will have implications especially Pike south. As of now, the bump north was actually good as stated yesterday. Better forcing and better rates is good for coastal areas, although boundary layer is still a little questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOX's first map ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOX's first map ... Cha ching. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thump and done here. Still maybe 6" if we are lucky tho Yeah our 4-7 then ice back to some type of snow looks good based on overnight runs. We could put down 6 inches tomorrow evening in like 3-4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SREFs really have a nice 2-3hr thump at the height over CT. I wouldn't be shocked if some place really cashed in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah our 4-7 then ice back to some type of snow looks good based on overnight runs. We could put down 6 inches tomorrow evening in like 3-4 hours You are really humping that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 anyone having any trouble accessing noaa.gov? BOX's first map ... Yikes!! What's up wiht the BOX site? I can't access it--looks like others have problems wiht it too (though apparnetly not you, Eric). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah nobody is going to torch at the surface in this setup outside of maybe the most vulnerable coastal areas in far SE zones...you might get some 33F rain obs in the interior valleys...but it could also end up colder than that. The low level cold is most often under forecasted when the high pressure in the exact spot it should be for this event. Exactly what most of us were preaching yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You are really humping that. All models are hammering CT with the first storm. Soth of pike is place to be for wave 1..and north for wave 2..but there's some sneaky surprises in there I think. I don;t see how we get less than 5 inches with wave 1 and possibly 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All models are hammering CT with the first storm. Soth of pike is place to be for wave 1..and north for wave 2..but there's some sneaky surprises in there I think. I don;t see how we get less than 5 inches with wave 1 and possibly 6-7 LOL. Not if you payed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 He probably will. I'd give Ray 2 to 1 odds favorite on beating Kevin. Who cares.. I';ve won the seasonal total again. What is this like 3 out of the last 4 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 All models are hammering CT with the first storm. Soth of pike is place to be for wave 1..and north for wave 2..but there's some sneaky surprises in there I think. I don;t see how we get less than 5 inches with wave 1 and possibly 6-7 Temps we agree with. At your elevation you will likely be below 32, except for Thursday where you will go above 32, especially IF there is no precip. I just think there is some shuffling still. Someone will probably pull 6-7", but might be in a very narrow area. With that, I think 3-5" is a good first guess for you. I know that's how you role, but 4-7 just is too high imo. But, if you get 4-5", it falls into your range so whack away. Nothing imo changed overnight. Today will hopefully nail things down, but at least many will see widespread snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Temps we agree with. At your elevation you will likely be below 32, except for Thursday where you will go above 32, especially IF there is no precip. I just think there is some shuffling still. Someone will probably pull 6-7", but might be in a very narrow area. With that, I think 3-5" is a good first guess for you. I know that's how you role, but 4-7 just is too high imo. But, if you get 4-5", it falls into your range so whack away. Nothing imo changed overnight. Today will hopefully nail things down, but at least many will see widespread snow. Well I guess where we differ is I don';t see anyone in interior SNE getting above 32 on Thursday. Even if precip stops for a bit Cold high, NE flow fresh snow..it will stay under 32. The biggest queston remaining is..is the Ukie right and it snows thru Thursday even south of pike or does the precip shut off for awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well I guess where we differ is I don';t see anyone in interior SNE getting above 32 on Thursday. Even if precip stops for a bit Cold high, NE flow fresh snow..it will stay under 32. The biggest queston remaining is..is the Ukie right and it snows thru Thursday even south of pike or does the precip shut off for awhile? This time of year, if the sun brightens and temps aloft are "mild" you'll get above 32 no question I think. But if it does snow or mix...that will keep it down. The key is precip imo, because you'll be advecting drier air in from the northeast. Any precip and you'll wetbulb. I think Thursday for now is more for NNE. Even the euro kept everything north. But we'll see what today does. If the vortmax does try to move underneath the area, it will keep lighter snows going. The euro has a vortmax moving under SNE Wednesday night which ignites the echoes once egain into Thursday morning, before quitting. Part of me sees a Friday repeat possible for some, with the first WAA thump. I actually think you may have a shot of a "mini max" with that. It's just difficult to pin point this far out. I don't think it will be across areas sw of HFD this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We'd all better enjoy this..because starting Saturday and thru mid March we are in for one brutal torch. Days 8-15 look like May. it is going to turn into spring very quickly. March has become one of my least favorite months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As much as I love seeing that BOX map wrt my backyard, I'm not sure what they're basing that on since I can't access their AFD. I'm not sure what they are basing the differentials on (qpf? temps?). Any insgihts welcomes. Also, if anyone has a back way into their AFD/forecasts, that would be great. Managed to get to a few htings from their FB page, but not those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We'd all better enjoy this..because starting Saturday and thru mid March we are in for one brutal torch. Days 8-15 look like May. it is going to turn into spring very quickly. March has become one of my least favorite months BBQ on the porch in the merry month of Morch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We'd all better enjoy this..because starting Saturday and thru mid March we are in for one brutal torch. Days 8-15 look like May. it is going to turn into spring very quickly. March has become one of my least favorite months I still think the low to our south next week should be watched. Like everything, the pattern isn't classic, but some ensemble members still have it, and there is a ridge out west. I'd put the chance of that as pretty low right now, but just sayin'. Otherwise we torch big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As much as I love seeing that BOX map wrt my backyard, I'm not sure what they're basing that on since I can't access their AFD. I'm not sure what they are basing the differentials on (qpf? temps?). Any insgihts welcomes. Also, if anyone has a back way into their AFD/forecasts, that would be great. Managed to get to a few htings from their FB page, but not those. HIGHLIGHTS... * ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT * ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY CONFIDENCE... TRICKY FORECAST TO START AS MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WED THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING OF SWITCHING THE SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN AS WELL AS THE EXACT LOCATION THAT WILL OCCUR. INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP ON BY ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MARCH SEEMS TO ENTER AS A LION AS THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS... AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE 00Z GFS HAS COME IN WARMER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ITS COLD BIASES. FOR THE THICKNESS DECIDED TO BLEND THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS THESE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HELPING TO SMOOTH OUT THE NAMS COLD BIAS. FOR QPF...KEPT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AS THEY HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW SYSTEM THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THIS PAST MONTH. FINALLY FOR TEMPS...SAW THAT MOS WAS QUITE TO WARM AND ITS DEW WHERE TO DRY. SO HAVE BLENDED TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM WITH PREV FORECAST. DETAILS... FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF QG FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING...NAM IS HINTING THAT BANDING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL TO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW CAN SAY THAT SOME REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND MAY CAUSE FOR A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE MAIN MIXED PRECIP LINE IS RIGHT ACROSS CONNECTICUT TO THE CAPE. THIS MAY CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ATMOSPHERE AS TIME DRAWS NEAR. CURRENTLY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMS BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY TEMPS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ESP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH AND EXPECT 6-8 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA WILL SEE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE 95 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARDS...INCLUDING PVD AND BOS...EXPECT 1-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL CHANGE OVERTIME SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN WINTER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BELIEVE FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Man the 2nd weekend of March may be very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 HIGHLIGHTS... * ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT * ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. Thanks, Eric--are you accessing their site or did you find this through FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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