ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'd also ask, what torch? If it's the 850mb temps...no. Just because those edge +1C ...event +2C, may only mean sleet/ZR in this synoptic set up. Too much polar high anchored. Yeah nobody is going to torch at the surface in this setup outside of maybe the most vulnerable coastal areas in far SE zones...you might get some 33F rain obs in the interior valleys...but it could also end up colder than that. The low level cold is most often under forecasted when the high pressure in the exact spot it should be for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM...I was just looking over NAM bufkit soundings. Interesting how the GFS does bring mlvl warmth that far north....Ukie/GGEM aren't that robust with the mlvl warmth are they? No, they are fairly similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No, they are fairly similar to the NAM. If Kevin were up he would say...AWT, toss the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We're scrambling to clean up panic here. Folks, stop it, and ride it. It's going to be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks pretty interesting to me for early next week. Nice vort backing the trough. Winter's last stand? with the MJO going in the crapper after that... ...but probably not Springs last stand as we usually get some snow after March 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We're scrambling to clean up panic here. Folks, stop it, and ride it. It's going to be okay. Its a feeling we've become unaccustomed to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks pretty interesting to me for early next week. Nice vort backing the trough. Winter's last stand? with the MJO going in the crapper after that... ...but probably not Springs last stand as we usually get some snow after March 21st. It's been in the last several runs of the GGEM and Euro. I mentioned this early that it should be monitored. This 00z GFS has that backside slide as well, but it drills the low too far seaward to do anything. Could be a near miss, but I do think there will be a spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 biggest storm of the winter season and noone has posted in 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 biggest storm of the winter season and noone has posted in 30 minutes I'm working on a discussion/snowfall map which I wanted done by 12:45 AM but distracted by the Nascar race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm working on a discussion/snowfall map which I wanted done by 12:45 AM but distracted by the Nascar race. Wait for the Euro and then do it? =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wait for the Euro and then do it? =P At this rate I may as well...I'm almost done with the discussion though and just have to make the map. Waking up at 8 AM too for a little Whale have a game at 11 AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro about to run on Wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 EURO kind of meh. Pretty paltry for both rounds. CT/SW MA do okay on round one - which fizzles heading NE. Round two materializes a little too late. Throws back some snows into E MA, but quick to exit by hour 60-66. Still lots to iron out. QPF probably 0.50" combined for a lot of SNE. EDIT: Post 66 -- keeps light snows for VT-NH-ME. Last batch moving off the ME coast at 87. Further south (ie- south of the VT-NH/MA borders) not much after 60-66. All C/NNE. Overall, an uninspiring run. Everything is elongated and stretched out. Nothing like the UKMET snow bomb for E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 EURO kind of meh. Pretty paltry for both rounds. CT/SW MA do okay on round one - which fizzles heading NE. Round two materializes a little too late. Throws back some snows into E MA, but quick to exit by hour 60-66. Still lots to iron out. QPF probably 0.50" combined for a lot of SNE. Yeah not impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Crappy run. Probably why Will didn't post. Always a bad sign. Still good for a few inches for most though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This was the best run of the Euro in days for SNE...probably 0.50-0.75" of qpf mostly snow...esp pike northward. It pretty much has part 1 combined with the other stuff before it tries to get inverted trough going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well, I went with 3-7" on FB...feel ok about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 This was the best run of the Euro in days for SNE...probably 0.50-0.75" of qpf mostly snow...esp pike northward. It pretty much has part 1 combined with the other stuff before it tries to get inverted trough going. Morning, Kev.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 EURO kind of meh. Pretty paltry for both rounds. CT/SW MA do okay on round one - which fizzles heading NE. Round two materializes a little too late. Throws back some snows into E MA, but quick to exit by hour 60-66. Still lots to iron out. QPF probably 0.50" combined for a lot of SNE. EDIT: Post 66 -- keeps light snows for VT-NH-ME. Last batch moving off the ME coast at 87. Further south (ie- south of the VT-NH/MA borders) not much after 60-66. All C/NNE. Overall, an uninspiring run. Everything is elongated and stretched out. Nothing like the UKMET snow bomb for E SNE. Yeah not impressive.. This was the best run of the Euro in days for SNE...probably 0.50-0.75" of qpf mostly snow...esp pike northward. It pretty much has part 1 combined with the other stuff before it tries to get inverted trough going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah not impressive.. Crappy run. Probably why Will didn't post. Always a bad sign. Still good for a few inches for most though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thanks for posting that Will...make me feel more confident with the snowfall map I just drew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah I'm not sure what they were expecting out ofthe Euro...it shows most of the qpf in a smaller window now which is a lot better than seeing 0.70" strung out over 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Was just going by the wundermaps snowfall map; only had about 3-5" of snow, which is why I'm not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 model snowfall maps blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 so what's your map weatherwiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 so what's your map weatherwiz? I'll post it within 5 minutes...just have to save it, upload it to photobucket, copy/paste my discussion into a new thread, then copy/paste the url link from photobucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It will change a bit more...but I thought it was a step in the right direction for the Euro to show more >0.25" areas in 6 hourlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If 6-9" verifies, you can call me a happy man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is pretty nice for CT on the front end...it has that Ukie-ish seconday pulse of snow for the pike region between 54-60 hours....but evenm N CT gets in on that before it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro is pretty nice for CT on the front end...it has that Ukie-ish seconday pulse of snow for the pike region between 54-60 hours....but evenm N CT gets in on that before it flips. I'm really liking how guidance has trended today...definitely a great sign seeing that as we draw closer...I know this winter models have been terrible and have flipped so much but tomorrow will be 24-hours out and to see guidance converging instead of diverging is a tremendous sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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