ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Which model do you think will or would handle the lift better, GFS or NAM? It's fantastic to see the GFS coming in slightly colder, definitely makes me feel more confident for a colder solution for mainly snow for the beginning and most of part 1 here but the GFS certainly doesn't look as impressive with the lift as the NAM does. NAM tends to over do lift a lot...usually I'd side with GFS...however in this situation where the GFS performs poorly (assuming this is true which it often is) with CAD...it can have an effect on its other parameters like lift...more defined CAD will cause better lift in this setup because you have a LLJ from the southwest smashing into resistance....higher resistance means more lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 So as we approach the system processes SE again, same pattern over and over again. Looks like we will almost all have fun on this next series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 gfs looking like the nam somewhat, great sign for us in nw jersey. wish i had sounding at 45 hr though twisterdata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 So as we approach the system processes SE again, same pattern over and over again. Looks like we will almost all have fun on this next series. I had mentioned that yesterday, Most all of them this year have done that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 twisterdata thanks ill check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How was the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM tends to over do lift a lot...usually I'd side with GFS...however in this situation where the GFS performs poorly (assuming this is true which it often is) with CAD...it can have an effect on its other parameters like lift...more defined CAD will cause better lift in this setup because you have a LLJ from the southwest smashing into resistance....higher resistance means more lift. There is something I found of interesting when looking at the LLJ at 850... The NAM which increases heights and pushes that ridge into ME along with a bit more sharper trough extending into western NE forces the LLJ to turn more southerly...the GFS meanwhile is more from the SW...so shouldn't the GFS be showing stronger lifting than the NAM? Or is it the fact that there is a great deal of isentropic lift involved b/c of the packed temp. contours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wow Uncle with a BOS snow bomb at 60 hours! hey fella, where do you guys get the ukie so early? subscription? e-wall, uwyo do not yet have the Feb 28 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GFS is virtually nil down here for part two which would be fine with me so long I get 3-5'' from part 1 which seems like a decent possibility. Although I feel the forecasting for part two is going to be the most difficult of this event b/c it's all really going to matter on how strong the energy is as it rotates through and where it exactly tracks. Part 2 though would really be a huge boost for central New England...would give many some very solid snow totals (warning criteria type snows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 hey fella, where do you guys get the ukie so early? subscription? e-wall, uwyo do not yet have the Feb 28 0Z run plymouth state weather site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Where's the Boston snow bomb on this graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I had mentioned that yesterday, Most all of them this year have done that It's so early...we're a day or more away before I feel we'll have a great idea of what's going to transpire...but we do seem to be seeing the same repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Meh. We've had some bouts of snow but very few snowcover days (outside the shady spots). The lake never froze which really sucks. Last winter we took the car on the ice; this year we could waterski. I expect one more dump in March out there. Maybe a 10-15 job. They are due for a decent snow. I think they are around 85" for the season but I don't have good stats. Obviously. Highly doubtful this go 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Where's the Boston snow bomb on this graphic? Greater than 0.50 of liquid equivalent in 6 hours with temperatures supporting snow would qualify as a 6 hour snow bomb in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 plymouth state weather site thanks will i must be doing something wrong... even through plymouth (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html), i still only get the Feb 27 12Z run don't worry about it, not worth your time now if it's complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Interesting...0z NAM bufkit at BDL drops about 0.5'' QPF as snow (which I would assume would be on the wet side due to warmer BL temps) then about 0.3'' of ZR/IP...if we see more ZR than IP that could be quite interesting with wet snow plastered on wires/limbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 thanks will i must be doing something wrong... even through plymouth (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html), i still only get the Feb 27 12Z run don't worry about it, not worth your time now if it's complicated Go back to the main page and choose "make your own" and then scroll down to "composite overlays" and then you can choose the Ukie there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks very similar to the Ukie, maybe a hair colder...that's a pretty good hit for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Go back to the main page and choose "make your own" and then scroll down to "composite overlays" and then you can choose the Ukie there. works! thanks much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Greater than 0.50 of liquid equivalent in 6 hours with temperatures supporting snow would qualify as a 6 hour snow bomb in most cases. Agreed. I guess I saw the large green swath and didnt know why it was called a Boston bomb when it covered such a wide area. But then, I saw, on Plymouth, that Boston is indeed below 0. Just... While most of the area south and west is above. Congrats Boston. Actually, congrats Ma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks very similar to the Ukie, maybe a hair colder...that's a pretty good hit for most of SNE. If its like the GGEM, its only good for Mass. on North. GGEM torched most of CT/RI, save for elevations above 600 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks very similar to the Ukie, maybe a hair colder...that's a pretty good hit for most of SNE. Euro will be plenty cold too I suspect. GFS will catch on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 looks great and its about time GGEM looks very similar to the Ukie, maybe a hair colder...that's a pretty good hit for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If its like the GGEM, its only good for Mass. on North. GGEM torched most of CT/RI, save for elevations above 600 ft. I dunno about that...CT is getting hit pretty hard at 48 hours....the 1000-700mb thickness line moves to the MA/CT border by 12z Fri but I wouldn't exactly call that torching CT...they are getting snow leading up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I dunno about that...CT is getting hit pretty hard at 48 hours....the 1000-700mb thickness line moves to the MA/CT border by 12z Fri but I wouldn't exactly call that torching CT...they are getting snow leading up to that point. What would you say is the total QPF for ORH for part 1 and 2 combined...does about 1'' sound about right? Bufkit through the 84-HR period has like 1.1''. The tough part gauging this is it seems very possible that in between parts one and two it could be lightly snowing most of the time across many locations, especially across MA/S NH/VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Will, Is Southern NH (Amherst/Nashua) going to get surpressed again for Storm 1, and then dry slotted for Storm 2? Pretty much have happened for the last couple storms. Just curious? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What would you say is the total QPF for ORH for part 1 and 2 combined...does about 1'' sound about right? Bufkit through the 84-HR period has like 1.1''. The tough part gauging this is it seems very possible that in between parts one and two it could be lightly snowing most of the time across many locations, especially across MA/S NH/VT Which model? NAM has over an inch here....GFS doesn't and GFS also warms us for a time in the mid-levels above freezing....Ukie is hard to tell since we do not have 48-54h qpf but probably pretty robust in overall qpf....GGEM looks like maybe just shy of an inch of qpf total (I'd estimate around 22-23mm which is like 0.90"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like a pretty good bet the 1-3" forecasts will be increased for the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I dunno about that...CT is getting hit pretty hard at 48 hours....the 1000-700mb thickness line moves to the MA/CT border by 12z Fri but I wouldn't exactly call that torching CT...they are getting snow leading up to that point. I'd also ask, what torch? If it's the 850mb temps...no. Just because those edge +1C ...event +2C, may only mean sleet/ZR in this synoptic set up. Too much polar high anchored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Which model? NAM has over an inch here....GFS doesn't and GFS also warms us for a time in the mid-levels above freezing....Ukie is hard to tell since we do not have 48-54h qpf but probably pretty robust in overall qpf....GGEM looks like maybe just shy of an inch of qpf total (I'd estimate around 22-23mm which is like 0.90"). The NAM...I was just looking over NAM bufkit soundings. Interesting how the GFS does bring mlvl warmth that far north....Ukie/GGEM aren't that robust with the mlvl warmth are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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