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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode II (Feb 29/March 1 event)


HoarfrostHubb

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Kind of a trend toward the GFS actually, though not as extreme.

More of a trend towards consensus regarding the temp profile alone imo. It was the coldest model before and it's shifted slightly warmer. From what I saw at 18z I thought the GFS moved a touch colder. I'd bet we see the GFS coming up to also inch a bit colder too.

Obviously the QPF NAM is kinda on its own here, although maybe some of the other mesos will keep spitting out really big QPF like the RGEM. SREFs have a lot of members with big QPF like the NAM.

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I think there was one 21z SREF, ETA 5 that was something like 2" QPF. Definitely some super weenies in there although I admittedly didn't check its thermal profile. I still would probably cut the NAM's amounts by 25 or so percent just given the lack of support from other guidance and its inherent wet bias. Even with that, this would be our best storm of the year inside 128 by far.

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More of a trend towards consensus regarding the temp profile alone imo. It was the coldest model before and it's shifted slightly warmer. From what I saw at 18z I thought the GFS moved a touch colder. I'd bet we see the GFS coming up to also inch a bit colder too.

Obviously the QPF NAM is kinda on its own here, although maybe some of the other mesos will keep spitting out really big QPF like the RGEM. SREFs have a lot of members with big QPF like the NAM.

Yeah, NAM has a wet bias too so consensus is slowly emerging.

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