Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 LOL, ummm no. Looks like I'll be at K-mart Thursday, MRG Friday/Sat. Thinking that things look pretty good from here right up the spine of the Greens. One day I'll check you guys out at WAwA but this is too good a period to pass up. Check out the avalanche I posted in the ski thread. Sounds like our conversation on the lift yesterday. By the way dude, slow the f down, holy sh it LOL. Wish I could ski that good. Folks gonna amp this up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SREFs also look to have cooled slightly at 850, but warm the surface a tad more vs. 15z Nam looks a hair warmer here, Not that it will matter up here but it may for the ones further south on the fence, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 nam's coming in much warmer just out to 12 hours on the critical thicknesses Yup, looks like about a 15-20 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's awesome, that's why the transition to Spring is so much fun to watch from a meteorological perspective. I agree, often times more unpredictable. Kind of like when you look at Friday's forecast on Monday and it looks to be in the 60's, and it verifies as a snowy day in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 How far south are the meso models? Links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ugh I hate that song. Not much better than something justin bieber would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z is deff warmer out to 18hrs. Edit by 21hrs LL is raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Check out the avalanche I posted in the ski thread. Sounds like our conversation on the lift yesterday. By the way dude, slow the f down, holy sh it LOL. Wish I could ski that good. Folks gonna amp this up tonight. LOL. Practice practice practice, Hoping it does amp up. Feel like good things are going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Wow, All of ct is above 32 at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 First thing I thought to myself when I saw 18z NAM: nice, the NAM has had a couple good successes this year. First thing I thought to myself when I saw 00z's warm trend: oh well, the NAM is the worst model out there, mets agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I never understood the method of analyzing a model run from hour to hour as it's coming out. Everytime I see people try and do that they usually end up being wrong about 95% of the time. Let the freaking run go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It seems to be faster with the WAA, thus making it warmer, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 By 0z, DXR is raing, HFD is on the verge of raining. Kev is probably still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 En fuego and a touch slower as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I never understood the method of analyzing a model run from hour to hour as it's coming out. Everytime I see people try and do that they usually end up being wrong about 95% of the time. Let the freaking run go out. Easy wiz, This isn't the sport forum......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I never understood the method of analyzing a model run from hour to hour as it's coming out. Everytime I see people try and do that they usually end up being wrong about 95% of the time. Let the freaking run go out. Its already to the event, and for HFD it looks pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 En fuego and a touch slower as well Si senor. Mucho mucho rain para Fairfield Cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Ride the mesos and the Euro but increase Euro qpf..and remember where you heard that This is a quality new weenie statement. Ride the Euro but increase it's QPF. Beautiful. With that said Kev may be right. I just think if you beef up QPF then you have to go further north with mid level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 By 0z, DXR is raing, HFD is on the verge of raining. Kev is probably still snowing. I'm not seeing that. Just looking at h85 and 2m it's only that way in far SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 0z NAM is a lot like the 12z. Just goes to show ya, never trust an 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I should hope the NAM would come back into the realm of guidance. It's been so far out in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Can we start a new a thread ...? Both the 12z and 18z runs of both the GFS and NAM completely missed the heavy strataform rains in N IL - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm not seeing that. Just looking at h85 and 2m it's only that way in far SW CT. At 0z (hr 24) on SV, the 850 runs NW to SE from DXR-MMK-GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Much better front end thump for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm not seeing that. Just looking at h85 and 2m it's only that way in far SW CT. Yep, thumpity dump at 21, better to check soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 some of the difference might be related to timing...it's about 1-2 hrs faster, but definintely a tad warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Well, I think I like the NAM being better with the thump N, I'm kind of worried that I get like 3-4" here because of crappy rates. Here are the 21z srefs for part 1, jackpot right along the pike. With part 2 there is another max from Dendrite to snowNH to Eric with higher 4+ and some 8+ probs. For event two the srefs think it mostly route 2 N, maybe 1-3" down to the pike. I like 4-7" first call here, but I wouldn't be surprised with 8" or 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 By 6z Thursday, all of CT is no longer snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Easy wiz, This isn't the sport forum......lol It's really pathetic...especially euro depictions...IMO, euro posts should only be delegated to certain posters b/c when it comes to the euro the posts on here just blow outside of just a few posters. Last night several people said the euro blew but when the more educated people posted about it they said it was good...how are people who want to learn supposed to view this? You have one person saying one thing and then someone else saying something else...I guess it all would come down to who you're most comfortable with and who you think is the more knowledgeable person. I'm looking at 0z NAM soundings for HFD and threw 24 hours it's likely all snow here...once we get the less intensity precip then it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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