CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Updated HPC probs for 4"+ Ugly for Kevin's 4-7 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yea GFS thermal profiles are warm. Seems to be the case a lot. Last week 36 hours out it had me at +2 from 800 to 900. Could be right though. I like to look at small scale mesos close in VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ITS DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE UPCOMING STORM. GFS REMAINS THE WARMEST WHILE NAM/ECMWF IS COLDEST. GIVEN THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A DECENT COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE WITH COLD HIGH TO THE N AND A WAVE UNDERCUTTING TO THE S OF NEW ENG...WE LEANED TOWARD COLDER NAM/ECMWF PROFILE TO DERIVE THE PTYPE WHICH SHOULD LOCK IN THE COLD AIR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW N OF THE PIKE WITH SNOW TO MIXED/RAIN TRANSITION NEAR THE S COAST BOX agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ITS DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE UPCOMING STORM. GFS REMAINS THE WARMEST WHILE NAM/ECMWF IS COLDEST. GIVEN THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A DECENT COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE WITH COLD HIGH TO THE N AND A WAVE UNDERCUTTING TO THE S OF NEW ENG...WE LEANED TOWARD COLDER NAM/ECMWF PROFILE TO DERIVE THE PTYPE WHICH SHOULD LOCK IN THE COLD AIR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW N OF THE PIKE WITH SNOW TO MIXED/RAIN TRANSITION NEAR THE S COAST BOX agrees. They're obviously not completely leaning on it though. If they were on their map there'd easily be a swath of 4-6 through NCT and N RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just weighed heavily against the GFS when taking the thermal profiles into account b/c that's what Kevin said to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ITS DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE UPCOMING STORM. GFS REMAINS THE WARMEST WHILE NAM/ECMWF IS COLDEST. GIVEN THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A DECENT COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE WITH COLD HIGH TO THE N AND A WAVE UNDERCUTTING TO THE S OF NEW ENG...WE LEANED TOWARD COLDER NAM/ECMWF PROFILE TO DERIVE THE PTYPE WHICH SHOULD LOCK IN THE COLD AIR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW N OF THE PIKE WITH SNOW TO MIXED/RAIN TRANSITION NEAR THE S COAST BOX agrees. Think you to Will jackpot on the front end. Brian to Jeff , Eric round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It will be interesting watching radar tomorrow, some meso models are pointing to the best precip staying south of the pike heading se(round 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ginxy is riding the NMM, wow is it cold and snowy for connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ugly for Kevin's 4-7 call. The SREF members still showing a lot of spread for BDL for storm total. Anywhere from 2" to like 8". The mean is in the 4-6" range which is where some clustering is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ginxy is riding the NMM, wow is it cold and snowy for connecticut. Lol have not seen it, link me up. I lost the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Updated snowfall map from Gray lowering amounts a bit in S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Think you to Will jackpot on the front end. Brian to Jeff , Eric round 2. Agree with frightening violence. Second guess for my 'hood ... 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My latest thoughts: Pretty solid event for Berkshire county, Mass and Worcester, Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The SREF members still showing a lot of spread for BDL for storm total. Anywhere from 2" to like 8". The mean is in the 4-6" range. Seems about the range that could happen, hopefully the cold over performs at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol have not seen it, link me up. I lost the link. only gets better, mm5, is a nice snowstorm for ct as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ETA is a ct snowstorm as well, interesting the meso models all like the first wave south and cold..........I just looked since Steve was talking about it, pretty darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The SREF members still showing a lot of spread for BDL for storm total. Anywhere from 2" to like 8". The mean is in the 4-6" range which is where some clustering is. I rode the SREFS like a stiff weenie when I made my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Think you to Will jackpot on the front end. Brian to Jeff , Eric round 2. I am going 5-9" here 1st call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My thoughts for the mid week snow blitz... never tried doing a map before for an event..but here's it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I rode the SREFS like a stiff weenie when I made my map. And hey, why not. You have a lot of experience there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 And hey, why not. You have a lot of experience there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 And hey, why not. You have a lot of experience there. LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 only gets better, mm5, is a nice snowstorm for ct as well. that shows snow here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This image was taken at our home in Maine late last week...after our 4.5" event in Augusta Maine...Thanks,Craig http://www.northeastweathereye.com follow us on facebook and twitter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 only gets better, mm5, is a nice snowstorm for ct as well. Yea I saw MM 5, what's your link for NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 And hey, why not. You have a lot of experience there. Where'd you get those plumes from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 LoL Ton of spread at IJD. Anywhere from 0 to 8". The mean is 3-4" but there isn't even any clustering of members to hang your hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 that shows snow here, lol Impressive CAD, not saying you see snow but let's see how 0 Zs react to soundings etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 CT_FTL That map doesnt' include anything prior to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yea I saw MM 5, what's your link for NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F28%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 BTW...these SREF graphics are courtesy of SPC's Greg Carbin. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/eplumes/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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