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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode II (Feb 29/March 1 event)


HoarfrostHubb

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My take....this is not your traditional noreaster(either gulf/southern state long fetch or a miller B) and the current setup is frought with forecasting dangers with big time busts possible in both directions. I try to keep it real simple....is the battleground going to be a ferocious fight between two strong players and is that battle going to be centered near or in my forecasting area. First requirement is met....that is one heck of a storm in the plains with a broad flow of warmth and moisture being blasted into our area ; to be met by a hp that means serious business( and one that i think is giving some models fits catching up to its importance). Second requirement depends of course to a large degree on the results of the battle. I fall on the side that says that high keeps significant cold over a widspread piece of sne and from mid-ct nortward and eastward the snows after all is said and done will range from 4-12 inches across the region with many winding up over the 8 inch mark. we will see.

no, but still a nice storm for most, but not impossible, lets see what the GFS shows soon.

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And this is from the Heavy snow discussion from this afternoon for New England... Don't ya just love a long duration snow event!

..NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH EXITS MAINE TONIGHT...WITH ADVANCING

GREAT LAKES WARM FRONT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING IN

FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SETS THE STAGE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX EVENT

WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON

VALLEY AND WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS

MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND MODERATE H85-H7

FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE

GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THE 3

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NAM 00Z-06Z-12Z WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THE GFS/ECMWF FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...PRIOR TO THE

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WINTER CYCLONE IS THEN

EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...UPSTATE

NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH

THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS CYCLONE TRACK WILL BE

TIED TO THE TROWAL AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE

WAVE FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...COLD FRONT AND OCCLUDED TRIPLE

POINT EAST OF THE JERSEY COAST. AFTER DAY 2...THE SYSTEM

CONSOLIDATES INTO ONE SURFACE LOW...BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALLS.

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Updated watch from BOX has northern MA/SW NH with 6-10.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...

MAZ002>006-008>010-026-NHZ011-012-015-290445-

/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0002.120229T1700Z-120301T2300Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...AYER...

JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE

344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND

SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT COATING OF

ICE.

Things are looking good for us Mike. You shouldn't wait until it's snowing to test your snowblower.

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A little cooler here and definitely better with the second half of the storm qpf. Over 1" qpf now on the GFS here versus the NAM 1.6" Max 850 temp here now +1C on the GFS before crashing that south early Thursday. Last night it had us to +3C at one point.

Definitely a little better during Thursday near and north of the pike.

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