HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Gotta' drive Greenfield to Newton and back tomorrow, what's the best guess on when the steadier snow moves into Boston Metro? RT 2 W should be a blast in moderate snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 amazing how consistent the GFS has been... has shown the same solution for about 24 hours now not saying it's right, but this standoff vs. NAM continues T-minus 42 hrs... my fear is that the 12Z EURO today was a shift towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Definitely a little better during Thursday near and north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeha maybe 2"-3" in a short period for some areas followed by pingers, ZR, then rain on the GFS. Which for the torcho GFS is decent, have to think its thermals are too warm. 3-5 BDL Colchester 4-6 NW Hills KevTo Woodstock then ice then snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My take....this is not your traditional noreaster(either gulf/southern state long fetch or a miller and the current setup is frought with forecasting dangers with big time busts possible in both directions. I try to keep it real simple....is the battleground going to be a ferocious fight between two strong players and is that battle going to be centered near or in my forecasting area. First requirement is met....that is one heck of a storm in the plains with a broad flow of warmth and moisture being blasted into our area ; to be met by a hp that means serious business( and one that i think is giving some models fits catching up to its importance). Second requirement depends of course to a large degree on the results of the battle. I fall on the side that says that high keeps significant cold over a widspread piece of sne and from mid-ct nortward and eastward the snows after all is said and done will range from 4-12 inches across the region with many winding up over the 8 inch mark. we will see. no, but still a nice storm for most, but not impossible, lets see what the GFS shows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Definitely a little better during Thursday near and north of the pike. GFS has been subtly cooling a bit thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Which for the torcho GFS is decent, have to think its thermals are too warm. 3-5 BDL Colchester 4-6 NW Hills KevTo Woodstock then ice then snow again. QPF just isn't all that special on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 QPF just isn't all that special on the GFS. No it isn't, MM5, NAM, RGEM all are decent. Euro is .5 or so. Think the mesos might work for a change. You guys will bust my balls but think that's a nice LL cold feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Interesting qpf discussion/snow for Wed into Friday am..per the latest discussion...for the Northeast... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=PFD&product=QPF Honestly think some of the Boston Mets are underdoing the snow totals....but what ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No it isn't, MM5, NAM, RGEM all are decent. Euro is .5 or so. Think the mesos might work for a change. You guys will bust my balls but think that's a nice LL cold feed. The Euro basically is a meso with its resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 QPF just isn't all that special on the GFS. Not my favorite run of this pathetic season, but I'm okay with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GFS has been subtly cooling a bit thursday morning. This run was probably one of the better runs I've seen from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GYX is getting more optimistic again...zones near CON implying 6-12+ My early call of 12-18 just might verify. I am The Reverent of the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The Euro basically is a meso with its resolution. True, 4-6 on the Euro for me. I thought it looked fine, all the Boston guys freaked out though. You want to see a weenie run look at today's MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 And this is from the Heavy snow discussion from this afternoon for New England... Don't ya just love a long duration snow event! ..NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH EXITS MAINE TONIGHT...WITH ADVANCING GREAT LAKES WARM FRONT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SETS THE STAGE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX EVENT WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND MODERATE H85-H7 FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THE 3 PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE NAM 00Z-06Z-12Z WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WINTER CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS CYCLONE TRACK WILL BE TIED TO THE TROWAL AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...COLD FRONT AND OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT EAST OF THE JERSEY COAST. AFTER DAY 2...THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES INTO ONE SURFACE LOW...BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If I were you guys up there...........just ride the rgem train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No it isn't, MM5, NAM, RGEM all are decent. Euro is .5 or so. Think the mesos might work for a change. You guys will bust my balls but think that's a nice LL cold feed. Euro's resolution is pretty much meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro's resolution is pretty much meso The difference ist hat its a hydrostatic model...whereas the true mesos are non-hydrostatic...which helps the mesos in events like 1/12/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 harvey not really giving totals map. Surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 True, 4-6 on the Euro for me. I thought it looked fine, all the Boston guys freaked out though. You want to see a weenie run look at today's MM5. Euro's resolution is pretty much meso That was so 42 seconds ago, thanks 3G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If I were you guys up there...........just ride the rgem train. It shows a Berks jackpot, it must be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Updated watch from BOX has northern MA/SW NH with 6-10. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY... MAZ002>006-008>010-026-NHZ011-012-015-290445- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0002.120229T1700Z-120301T2300Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...AYER... JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT COATING OF ICE. Things are looking good for us Mike. You shouldn't wait until it's snowing to test your snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Things are looking good for us Mike. You shouldn't wait until it's snowing to test your snowblower. Will you text me for the fiftieth time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A little cooler here and definitely better with the second half of the storm qpf. Over 1" qpf now on the GFS here versus the NAM 1.6" Max 850 temp here now +1C on the GFS before crashing that south early Thursday. Last night it had us to +3C at one point. Definitely a little better during Thursday near and north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Will you text me for the fiftieth time Stalker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My DP is now 14, Suzy Chapstick like. Cold prevails, snow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ecwmf model went with nam not gfs for this storm . tv stations most times go gfs which nam might just win with this storm . gfs has not good this winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ecwmf model went with nam not gfs for this storm . tv stations most times go gfs which nam might just win with this storm . gfs has not good this winter . Hey Blizz, how ya doing bro. Hope things are well. Big snows West Hartford, storm uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Will you text me for the fiftieth time It's unattractive to be pushy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's unattractive to be pushy... lol, ski related. time sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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