moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wimp I just saw that Quabbin Reigonal told their kids not to come to school until Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Go with me on this one, mesos are tuning in. I listen to you because you got October right for me...otherwise your optimism is dumbfounding Ski Wachusett Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just saw that Quabbin Reigonal told their kids not to come to school until Monday. That was Tolland Gardner, Leominster used to get snow back in the day. Now we grill steak on the deck in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I like the forecast of somewhere between zero and a foot lol...that guy has the right idea. figures this is the year even for a met winter standard that there will be enough snow on the 29th day of February to fook up possible futility or top five futility records even for the met winter period. so over a foot of paralyzing snow falls in late oct and then the winter is torched off the charts with almost no snow until the last day of met winter talk about climo exerting her dominence lol...ah shes one tough biatch that climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 some of the mesos suck. Love me some NAM RGEM MM 5 mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well when the 500mb low goes to your south, that usually means processes like warm air advection, positive vorticity advection, and things like frontogenesis (which helps develop precip) are all at play to enhance the precip. So it would be nice to have that go out south of Long Island. Thanks Scott, so basically it helps to focus more positive features and combine them as opposed to just having good WAA or PVA on it's own then right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I like the forecast of somewhere between zero and a foot lol...that guy has the right idea. figures this is the year even for a met winter standard that there will be enough snow on the 29th day of February to fook up possible futility or top five futility records even for the met winter period. so over a foot of paralyzing snow falls in late oct and then the winter is torched off the charts with almost no snow until the last day of met winter talk about climo exerting her dominence lol...ah shes one tough biatch that climo I think the odds of me busting are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The stuff on Thursday could be more bursty or "convective' as the ULL approaches. Almost like a 3 part deal if you will. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I listen to you because you got October right for me...otherwise your optimism is dumbfounding Ski Wachusett Thursday? Huh, Yea I mean you have the potential for 8-10 so might as well be pessimistic. I know MBY is kinda 3-5 but yes I am optimistic for others, why not, two camps here, Crappy system or strong WAA followed by a decent. I am in the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 gfs looks like it'll come in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Do you think we see this much QPF? I hope it's right, but isn't the NAM usually way too high on QPF output. no, but still a nice storm for most, but not impossible, lets see what the GFS shows soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 gfs looks like it'll come in colder Well if it came in warmer LL may have had some T-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just saw the BOX map. Went up a bit in N Central Mass. 8-10 for a lot of us NAM fans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well if it came in warmer LL may have had some T-storms. yeah...it had to move colder eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 yeah...it had to move colder eventually. though now looking at it more closely...it's maybe negligible difference from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Huh, Yea I mean you have the potential for 8-10 so might as well be pessimistic. I know MBY is kinda 3-5 but yes I am optimistic for others, why not, two camps here, Crappy system or strong WAA followed by a decent. I am in the latter. It has been harsh this year. I am a bitter shell of my former weenie I am actually a tiny bit optimistic for Saturday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GFS a tick warmer back this way. A tick juicier. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thanks Scott, so basically it helps to focus more positive features and combine them as opposed to just having good WAA or PVA on it's own then right? I gave a watered down explanation because I didn't want to confuse you. You are right in a sense. What happens is that you'll begin to get better inflow and moisture advection too in the lower to mid levels. If it is strong enough it could lead to a cold conveyor belt of moisture off the Atlantic. It also prevents the dryslot from moving in aloft. That usually is the killer. Having the 500 mb low to your south cuts off the dryslot and allows more Atlantic moisture to feed in.And that leads into the other processes described earlier. All the good stuff happens north of the 500 low, usually. That doesn't mean you can't get a strong burst of precip ahead of it, if it's moving west of you. Many times that does happen. The difference is that you'll get a quick burst of precip and then it shuts off, vs continuously getting snow through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 though now looking at it more closely...it's maybe negligible difference from 12z. Time to ride the nam to our death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 looks like Harvey and Noyes are saying about 4" in BOS for wed aft/night. Interested to see when and by how much Bouchard caves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why in the hell would Pete not forecast any snow if there are widespread winter storm watches posted...not right?? He is usually the one to go ape with totals before the event arrives...maybe from earlier bust? just wondering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 H5 low is further south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe me but nearly .3 of w/e snow in 3 hours is not meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The GFS tries to dig the H5 low so initially I think it might cause the warmer look...maybe even help drive the moisture north. I guess the hope is that it develops better precip later at night and Thursday if that trend were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I gave a watered down explanation because I didn't want to confuse you. You are right in a sense. What happens is that you'll begin to get better inflow and moisture advection too in the lower to mid levels. If it is strong enough it could lead to a cold conveyor belt of moisture off the Atlantic. It also prevents the dryslot from moving in aloft. That usually is the killer. Having the 500 mb low to your south cuts off the dryslot and allows more Atlantic moisture to feed in.And that leads into the other processes described earlier. All the good stuff happens north of the 500 low, usually. That doesn't mean you can't get a strong burst of precip ahead of it, if it's moving west of you. Many times that does happen. The difference is that you'll get a quick burst of precip and then it shuts off, vs continuously getting snow through the period. Thanks for taking the time to explain it, obviously my meteorological knowledge isn't anywhere near a lot of folks here but I'm trying to learn and you definitely explained it in a way I can comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Maybe me but nearly .3 of w/e snow in 3 hours is not meh. Yeha maybe 2"-3" in a short period for some areas followed by pingers, ZR, then rain on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 is it a bad sign for us that things have just trended much warmer in the twin cities? seems like that blinding snowstorm out there is taking its sweet time developing but theres lots of rain and mixed precip. so msp just recnetly went from at least six to eight inches with up to a foot down to one to three area wide...that sounds like a gargantuan bust already!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL, there is actually an H85 ridge max at hr 42 north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeha maybe 2"-3" in a short period for some areas followed by pingers, ZR, then rain on the GFS. Tune I been hummin' all day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thanks for taking the time to explain it, obviously my meteorological knowledge isn't anywhere near a lot of folks here but I'm trying to learn and you definitely explained it in a way I can comprehend. Shoot me a PM whenever. I try not to use technical jargon when explaining because all it does is confuse the individual. It's better to understand the physics behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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