wxmanmitch Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like ALY's map is a bit more in line with the NAM QPFwise. It addresses the likely pinger problem in south Berkshire and points S and W. Even so, it looks like about a 8" event here if their map verifies, which I'd gladly take. It's not often that there's some sleet contamination in PSF and all snow in BOS (assuming they can keep the low-levels cold enough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like ALY's map is a bit more in line with the NAM QPFwise. It addresses the likely pinger problem in south Berkshire and points S and W. Even so, it looks like about a 8" event here if their map verifies, which I'd gladly take. It's not often that there's some sleet contamination in PSF and all snow in BOS (assuming they can keep the low-levels cold enough). Mitch--can you show the link to that? I can't find that on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like ALY's map is a bit more in line with the NAM QPFwise. It addresses the likely pinger problem in south Berkshire and points S and W. Even so, it looks like about a 8" event here if their map verifies, which I'd gladly take. It's not often that there's some sleet contamination in PSF and all snow in BOS (assuming they can keep the low-levels cold enough). I think a lot of the NWS offices see the forcing and colder profiles. I personally think the NAM is the first to latch on the juice and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Can't we ever go one storm without someone complaining about a model? Every storm it's...the NAM sucks...the GFS sucks...the Euro sucks...Ukie sucks...blah blah blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like ALY's map is a bit more in line with the NAM QPFwise. It addresses the likely pinger problem in south Berkshire and points S and W. Even so, it looks like about a 8" event here if their map verifies, which I'd gladly take. It's not often that there's some sleet contamination in PSF and all snow in BOS (assuming they can keep the low-levels cold enough). I like the way their 10-14" area is 8 miles north of me........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Box has 2-5 in advisory..but then 4-6 on their snow map. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 lol because that's not confusing Either that or just keep the watches until after the 0z runs. With the poor model performance across the board I don't see why you could wait as long as possible before making a more definitive statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Box has 2-5 in advisory..but then 4-6 on their snow map. Makes sense Those would be the lolly outliers. They're excluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18nam is colder than the 12zrun you watch later tonight or wed morning they will bring ct into warnings for their area of forecast boston national weather service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 God I hate the NAM. You look at it and it makes you freak out with your going forecast. Ugh what a terrible model. LOL.. so true.. does this mean youre going to update the blog? or screw it; its the 18z nam, after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Prediction: There will be between 0 and 12" of snow in Southern New England tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18nam is colder than the 12zrun you watch later tonight or wed morning they will bring ct into warnings for their area of forecast boston national weather service. repeal the damn seat belt law Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Mitch--can you show the link to that? I can't find that on their site. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png I think a lot of the NWS offices see the forcing and colder profiles. I personally think the NAM is the first to latch on the juice and dynamics. I usually will put a bit more faith in the meso models once inside of 24-36 hours, which we are now. However, I could still see a drier solution like the GFS verifying given the confluence and dry air settling in across the region. If the GFS has it's way, it could be one of those snow shields that has some holes and 1-1.5 SM visibility -SN as opposed to a solid snow shield and 1/4-1/2 +SN or SN. This will make a big difference in total accumulations, especially due to the sun angle at this time of year and that a portion of this will be falling during the daytime hours. I like the way their 10-14" area is 8 miles north of me........ You should do well. I don't think you'll have any taint issues, unless that warm layer really rockets NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18nam is colder than the 12zrun you watch later tonight or wed morning they will bring ct into warnings for their area of forecast boston national weather service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18Z RGEM is a shallacking mainly from midnight tomorrow night to Noon Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You can't choose the skew-t or cross section options for the Euro on wundermaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Came home to see OKX flipped again, no snow accumulation here, went from 1-3 to zip, I think they have the right idea, and dont understand why they keep flipping back and forth. nam looks solid for you guys! WOW look at the qpf, holy moly..............okx obviously riding the gfs here, even the euro gives me accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 . . . I'm assuming that since the watch has turned into an advisory, the warning is out. lol at no winter storm warning since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 lol because that's not confusing Just to add to the confusion... Springfield is still listed with a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I like the way their 10-14" area is 8 miles north of me........ My family lake house is right where that last 6"-8" is shown at the top left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18Z RGEM is a shallacking mainly from midnight tomorrow night to Noon Thursday. Jerry, I saw your post about that aviation forecast for Logan. Where did you get that, and what the hell do those acronyms mean? Its not looking good for my flight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Jerry, I saw your post about that aviation forecast for Logan. Where did you get that, and what the hell do those acronyms mean? Its not looking good for my flight... They are usually at the end of the area forecast discussions. vfr is visual flight restriction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Take it with a grain of salt, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 1.3" of sloppy fail - that's my final call for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....SnowWebFcst.png I usually will put a bit more faith in the meso models once inside of 24-36 hours, which we are now. However, I could still see a drier solution like the GFS verifying given the confluence and dry air settling in across the region. If the GFS has it's way, it could be one of those snow shields that has some holes and 1-1.5 SM visibility -SN as opposed to a solid snow shield and 1/4-1/2 +SN or SN. This will make a big difference in total accumulations, especially due to the sun angle at this time of year and that a portion of this will be falling during the daytime hours. You should do well. I don't think you'll have any taint issues, unless that warm layer really rockets NE. Thanks. Snow day for most on Thursday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18Z RGEM is a shallacking mainly from midnight tomorrow night to Noon Thursday. Go with me on this one, mesos are tuning in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 1.3" of sloppy fail - that's my final call for BOS. Why would you make a final call this far in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Go with me on this one, mesos are tuning in. some of the mesos suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thanks. Snow day for most on Thursday I think. Wimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What kind of benefit does that have and for who? Better coastal and less in the way of inverted trough type stuff? Well when the 500mb low goes to your south, that usually means processes like warm air advection, positive vorticity advection, and things like frontogenesis (which helps develop precip) are all at play to enhance the precip. So it would be nice to have that go out south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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