Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 God I hate the NAM. You look at it and it makes you freak out with your going forecast. Ugh what a terrible model. i can't stand it. mainly that's a winter 11-12 phenomenon though for me. i used to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Asked & answered... They let this guy go on TV with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Edit:I see I was slow on the draw. I wonder if Pete B plays conservative at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's just gone insane with the qpf this run , even if its evolution might have merit. 1.6" here LOL ..hell....give me 50% of that and I'm happy for this winter. God I hate the NAM. You look at it and it makes you freak out with your going forecast. Ugh what a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They let this guy go on TV with that? No way HFD/SPFLD gets a f'n coating...come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I still think my area could wind up with 3-5", 4-6" something like that. Of course it will take a while to get to those higher numbers...stretched out and not really dramatic. Like MPM, my snowblower does not touch it if it is 3" or less... I think I'll hold off until tomorrow morning to see if it still starts. I suppose then I should get a good sense of whether it might be worthy of the blower. Signs are encouraging though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They let this guy go on TV with that? i don't necessarily agree with it, but there's some validity to his line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Keeps going up. http://i42.tinypic.com/34ra7sz.png But BTV goes mostly down. NY may be mostly higher IIRC the last map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Asked & answered... Man oh man, that's conservative... more along the lines of my thinking but nothing in Boston? No more than a coating in CT??? That's ballsy low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i don't necessarily agree with it, but there's some validity to his line of thinking. Does even the least snowiest model right now show a coating all the way up to the MA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Asked & answered... gfs lovin map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Too bad it looks to slip ever so slightly underneath you there.... Early week event next week might have more merit for NS. Probably form too late for us... Then Spring wx it seems at least until the MJO gets out of the crapper. Your welcome. Sending down a care package. Hope you guys get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i can't stand it. mainly that's a winter 11-12 phenomenon though for me. i used to like it. I don't know. I find part of the fun in being a winter weather nut is looking at weenie runs like the NAM showed at 18z. Even though deep down I know it's very unlikely, I like having that 1% chance in my back pocket to hang my false hope on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Asked & answered... seems low, I am going with 6-8 most of the area.. higher amounts WNW of my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't know. I find part of the fun in being a winter weather nut is looking at weenie runs like the NAM showed at 18z. Even though deep down I know it's very unlikely, I like having that 1% chance in my back pocket to hang my false hope on. why is it unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Media roundup time: WBZ: WWLP (Springfield): WTNH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pete Bouchard latest map has nothing for Boston proper and only 1-3" for me out through Worcester. What's up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pete Bouchard latest map has nothing for Boston proper and only 1-3" for me out through Worcester. What's up? Pete desperately wants the futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yes, it looks OK for a couple hours but not for long. Things dry out in the SGZ and omega winds up lowering well below SGZ relatively quickly. I see what you mean after closer inspection...also noted how that what I mentioned seems to actually occur AFTER the heaviest QPF is out. The one time I don't look at this stuff on bufkit when making a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I wonder if Pete B plays conservative at 4PM. Very conservative at that. Nothing in Boston and a general 1"-3" in most of Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 why is it unlikely? Do you think we see this much QPF? I hope it's right, but isn't the NAM usually way too high on QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Updated watch from BOX has northern MA/SW NH with 6-10. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY... MAZ002>006-008>010-026-NHZ011-012-015-290445- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0002.120229T1700Z-120301T2300Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...AYER... JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 344 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT COATING OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pete Bouchard latest map has nothing for Boston proper and only 1-3" for me out through Worcester. What's up? Maybe he is counting on winter 2011-12 rearing it's ugly head for the umpteenth time, can't say I blame him. I suppose he has the chance to be the only one right with a map like that. But it is a tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 God I hate the NAM. You look at it and it makes you freak out with your going forecast. Ugh what a terrible model. That's how most of us feel about the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Taunton switched anyone South of interior MA over to advisories. With all the uncertainty still boiling over, I would've just stuck with watches or at least kept the watches active over the advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 So why is the NAM any more wrong than any other guidance? Had to play catch up but it's obvious Will is much more optimistic than the other Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pete B riding the season. Ballsy move given the wsw hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BOX's now has CT under an advisory for 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Taunton switched anyone South of interior MA over to advisories. With all the uncertainty still boiling over, I would've just stuck with watches or at least kept the watches active over the advisories. lol because that's not confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Do you think we see this much QPF? I hope it's right, but isn't the NAM usually way too high on QPF output. Too low last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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