Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 in another few minutes the 18z nam will roll out...sure to drop 1.5" LE all snow at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Weenie run up here too for part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 like clockwork.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 People need to remember although the Euro had the right idea in squashing the 1st event last time...it did so too much at the end. It was also pretty bad with event 2...the american guidance had a better handle on the extent of that snow at this stage. Very good point, and it was also a good deal light for QPF where the best banding took place. Having said that though with the high and confluence where it is, it's a double edged sword for BOS and areas around here. We need the high and confluence to deliver the cold but it also can chew up a lot of the precip as you move north and east just like it did last week leaving us in the worst spot. I'm nervous just like scooter is. But then the 18z NAM rolls around and we get absolutely plastered and end up in one of the best spots for the event. I don't know how the 18z NAM always winds up with the most weenie solutions possible, it's pretty ridiculous. The clown maps are going to be outrageous. Among the relevant differences between this storm and the last one is the RGEM and UK both being on board for good QPF numbers. In the last one, both of those were on the SE and paltry side more in line with the Euro. Having those along with the GGEM spitting out good QPF is a little more encouraging for MBY. I still feel pretty gun-shy after getting screwed so bad with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Blizz is happy and Blizz likes how things have trended today Thanks, Jimmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My thoughts: http://ryanhanrahan....ith-bad-timing/ The main point: So how much snow? On average most of us will see 2″-4″ followed by some ice. Less than an inch is likely on the shoreline and areas north of Hartford may see an inch or two more. Aww... not even a little bit of love for the 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Dude it was 1.49". Come on. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Aww... not even a little bit of love for the 18z nam? I don't know if you closely inspected the 12z NAM it didn't look all that great in several ways. Poor snow growth an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Dude it was 1.49". Come on. lol this winter the statement "granted it's the NAM at 84 hours" has become "granted it's the NAM at 24 hours" i don't understand what happened. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I likey. Too bad its on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't know if you closely inspected the 12z NAM it didn't look all that great in several ways. Poor snow growth an issue. Yea, the 12z sucked... Im talking about the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yea, the 12z sucked... Im talking about the 18z. Well I haven't looked at all the details on 18z... but QPF/850 alone on the 12z looked good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ryan, are you trying to find any way this can go wrong? lol...your recent optimism was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ryan, are you trying to find any way this can go wrong? lol...your recent optimism was nice. The last event looked better as we got closer. This one is getting a little crappier. But who knows maybe the 18z GFS chucks em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't know if you closely inspected the 12z NAM it didn't look all that great in several ways. Poor snow growth an issue. I didn't think the snowgrowth looked too bad...best snowgrowth zone was in the 12K-18K level with a -15C isotherm running right through it...I know the strongest VV's were below it (20-25 whatever the units are) but the -15 did get into the area of best snowgrowth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Keeps going up. http://i42.tinypic.com/34ra7sz.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well I haven't looked at all the details on 18z... but QPF/850 alone on the 12z looked good as well. 850 is much colder.. Keeps us (northern ct) below frz for all but 3 hrs for both parts! 18z nam alone would be good for 8-10 round these parts I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Good gracious ....that 18Z NAM run was the ultimate weenie run of all weenie runs. LOL The link I have doesn't update until like 3-315. Someone else might have them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I wonder if Pete B plays conservative at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I didn't think the snowgrowth looked too bad...best snowgrowth zone was in the 12K-18K level with a -15C isotherm running right through it...I know the strongest VV's were below it (20-25 whatever the units are) but the -15 did get into the area of best snowgrowth. Yes, it looks OK for a couple hours but not for long. Things dry out in the SGZ and omega winds up lowering well below SGZ relatively quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Man look at 950MB. Straight from Nova Scotia with love. That's some chilly air coming in. Your welcome. Sending down a care package. Hope you guys get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 HPC 48hr probs 4in,8in,12in Not that it means much but hpc even had a small area of 5-10% chance of 18in around or just north of Logan 11 in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The last event looked better as we got closer. This one is getting a little crappier. But who knows maybe the 18z GFS chucks em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 850 is much colder.. Keeps us (northern ct) below frz for all but 3 hrs for both parts! 18z nam alone would be good for 8-10 round these parts I would think. there continues to be a layer of warm air above 850 though...so it would be pinging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 God I hate the NAM. You look at it and it makes you freak out with your going forecast. Ugh what a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 850 is much colder.. Keeps us (northern ct) below frz for all but 3 hrs for both parts! 18z nam alone would be good for 8-10 round these parts I would think. Wouldn't you consider Newington Central CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I wonder if Pete B plays conservative at 4PM. Asked & answered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 lol, You get both ends Nam is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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