ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You must get the advanced/early release AFD and warning package because it's not showing up for me when I type in Lewiston, Maine on the noaa site or on Gray/Portlands forecast area main site. Its because they update their zones forecasts first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hour 30 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Also 850s look pretty similar to 9z. Maybe slightly warmer. Few miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 FIRST CALL (combined events) Updated call later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Also 850s look pretty similar to 9z. Maybe slightly warmer. Few miles or so. Lol at the 15z ETA. Futility record out the door for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Its because they update their zones forecasts first. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 FIRST CALL (combined events) Pretty decent job. You can maybe drop the 4-8" into the ORH hills too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM is pretty for I-90, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I want to, but I know its the nam and were still over 18 hours left in the period. I would definitly discount the qpf, Its usually way over done, Its overall solution should be in line with the others.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Man, the NAM is moist. 850s do look a little warmer but not much difference at the surface I would say. Even the precip lagging behind the initial wave looks heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18z nam is better for N CT I think (edit: more qpf, but warmer?). .5 line makes it to about ORH for part...so looks like the nam may be kind of catching on to the idea of better lift south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18z NAM annihilates CT, esp NE CT. He'd get his 4-7" in the first six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro cut back by about a tenth here...still would be a 5-6" type snowfall though. I think 4-8" is a good first call for this area all things considered. Part of me is like fook it. If we are going to sag this south, let the trend of getting that ULL south happen too. I didn't mind seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 through 06z thur (after this period the 6 hr numbers are all like .1 or whatnot)...some euro qpf numbers: bos: .27 orh: .37 hya: .37 bdl: .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Man look at 950MB. Straight from Nova Scotia with love. That's some chilly air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol at the 15z ETA. Futility record out the door for BOS. 15z ETA even wants to get NYC in on some of the action, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Pretty decent job. You can maybe drop the 4-8" into the ORH hills too. Please do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just NE of LL probably rips out 4-6" from 18z to 00z before any flip on the nam. If the nam is right...big school problems for buses around 2:00 to 4:00...and for the evening commute around the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18z nam is better for N CT I think (edit: more qpf, but warmer?). .5 line makes it to about ORH for part...so looks like the nam may be kind of catching on to the idea of better lift south of the pike. N CT still gets nailed. Doesnt flip to pingers until 6z Saturday after .75" has fallen. QPF is always overdone on the 18z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. it's been so bad. awful. i hate it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. And programmed with the QG snowNH equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Please do... I'll be making a map later with some brief analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. Expect it to be the paltriest by 00z or 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. If the nam is right you guys are right the 4-7" is way off. Too low :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 h39 looks like it'll be a decent solution for wave 2 in NNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM is such a weenie model. I think it was ran from Kevin's computer this winter. lol, You get both ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Don't the folks who maintain the NAM see how bad it is for qpf? It's not like it is a tiny bit off, or not predictable in this way. I love to watch it, but then I see my grass is still brown and I get a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sim radar from 00z to 3z along I90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Part of me is like fook it. If we are going to sag this south, let the trend of getting that ULL south happen too. I didn't mind seeing that. What kind of benefit does that have and for who? Better coastal and less in the way of inverted trough type stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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