ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Didn't the euro blow the short range last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Has anyone seen GYX's updated map? Holy crap...can't exactly see that happening up this way. Edit: It may be old from last weeks event, but it says ending Thu 3/1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 HPC must be hugging the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Box is going with a nam/Euro blend for qpf, and for thicknesses they have a nam/canadian/euro blend so it seems they're not taking the 0z gfs too seriously. Not to say whether they're right or wrong just a FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Has anyone seen GYX's updated map? Holy crap...can't exactly see that happening up this way. Edit: It may be old from last weeks event, but it says ending Thu 3/1... Woah they upgraded it...wow, must really see something in the nam solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the problem here is that the storm is really two pieces...a nice front thump, then a period from 00z THU to 18z THU where all we're basically getting is drizzle/freezing drizzle/flurries/light sleet. that's skewing the precipitation totals, but with marginal temps and light precip, not much additional accumulation looks likely after midnight tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thinking a 1-3 kind of deal for most in CT. A little less at the coast and a little more north of Hartford. Hard to see how anyone exceeds 4.5 or 5" from this. wonder if the NW part of the state does a bit better with the initial push before milder air moves in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Has anyone seen GYX's updated map? Holy crap...can't exactly see that happening up this way. Edit: It may be old from last weeks event, but it says ending Thu 3/1... No, Thats there updated one, This mornings was 4-6", Thats not that far off if you figure 10-12:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Has anyone seen GYX's updated map? Holy crap...can't exactly see that happening up this way. Edit: It may be old from last weeks event, but it says ending Thu 3/1... Wow, I did now. I'd be psyched to see that verify. Much better than the one I posted earlier today so I don't think its old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thinking a 1-3 kind of deal for most in CT. A little less at the coast and a little more north of Hartford. Hard to see how anyone exceeds 4.5 or 5" from this. I think you still need to watch for a good weenie band or two. That may locally enhance snow, but that's very difficult to say with confidence this far out. But all these factors were why I was telling Kevin those higher amounts just didn't seem likely at this point. I think we are still seeing some shuffling, so I'll wait until later tonight before deciding how things go for my area. The stuff Wednesday night may be sort of bursty in a way. I'm interested to see how it plays out as I might have a CF to my east helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 euro would probably still yield a couple/few inches here. nothing like the NAM of course but the soundings are still fairly chilly even into the overnight hours before things turn milder. of course concern is the precip rates end up crappy, in which case it's just a prolonged -rn/sn mix that doesn't do anything but make me want to cry and move on to spring. that's the sanest advice spoken in our subforum all winter...I'm already there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 No, Thats there updated one, This mornings was 4-6", Thats not that far off if you figure 10-12:1 ratios They definitely are gung ho considering if you blend all 4 major models together, NNE averages about 0.6" over a fairly long duration. That map is pretty ballsy I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I can't believe the change in tone in here in 3 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 18z nam at 18 already looks like its going to back down from 12z, but that's not too surprising considering how crazy 12z was, we'll see what the rest of the run brings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 in another few minutes the 18z nam will roll out...sure to drop 1.5" LE all snow at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They definitely are gung ho considering if you blend all 4 major models together, NNE averages about 0.6" over a fairly long duration. That map is pretty ballsy I think. They went WSW with there afternoon AFD.... ANDROSCOGGIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS 255 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I can't believe the change in tone in here in 3 hours lol Weens gon be weens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They definitely are gung ho considering if you blend all 4 major models together, NNE averages about 0.6" over a fairly long duration. That map is pretty ballsy I think. Hard to tell what they used to come up with the map. Probably the afternoon afd will let us know what guidance was used. Would have to think it was maybe a nam/hpc blend or at least heavily favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 BTV's map blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Meh. This winter made me appreciate even a couple inches of fresh snow on the ground and the trees, so I'm looking forward to seeing the grass covered one last time. Sure, I would have liked an 8–12" bomb, but it's white and cold and you can make snowballs with it. This could very well be the last winter weather event for nine or ten months, so take pics and savor your 3 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hard to tell what they used to come up with the map. Probably the afternoon afd will let us know what guidance was used. Would have to think it was maybe a nam/hpc blend or at least heavily favored. BTV's map blows, and is more in line with my thinking. 2-4" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I can't believe the change in tone in here in 3 hours lol I think most are pretty level headed. We joke about the NAM and Euro..things like that, but my thoughts haven't changed for my area anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They went WSW with there afternoon AFD.... ANDROSCOGGIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS 255 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. BTV cut their totals considerably in northern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I still think my area could wind up with 3-5", 4-6" something like that. Of course it will take a while to get to those higher numbers...stretched out and not really dramatic. Like MPM, my snowblower does not touch it if it is 3" or less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 15z SREFs looks to cut back slightly on the northern edge of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nam's going to deliver again. I wish that model was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 They went WSW with there afternoon AFD.... ANDROSCOGGIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS 255 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 12. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. You must get the advanced/early release AFD and warning package because it's not showing up for me when I type in Lewiston, Maine on the noaa site or on Gray/Portlands forecast area main site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the nam will really focus the 2nd wave here, It looks even more robust so far for wave 1 then 12z if you want to believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro cut back by about a tenth here...still would be a 5-6" type snowfall though. I think 4-8" is a good first call for this area all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the nam will really focus the 2nd wave here, It looks even more robust so far for wave 1 then 12z if you want to believe it I want to, but I know its the nam and were still over 18 hours left in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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