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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode II (Feb 29/March 1 event)


HoarfrostHubb

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Hey it's Al Roker's alma mater.. Maybe she was there around the same time? LOL

I used to love watching Al Roker on NBC doing the weather when I was a kid, not sure if my mom knew he was from Oswego but she loved to watch him as well. "The College on the Lake" is a great place if you want to experience lake effect...I think they probably average like 130" snowfall per year. I think my mom was there for some pretty hefty years like 70-71, and she said they used to put up cables on the sides of the walkways because the winds would become so intense in arctic fronts that it was dangerous to walk around without support.

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Nice run for many there. I don't think it makes me warning criteria here considering the long duration, but what a wintry couple of days this would be for most of the region.

I like long duration snow events if they are over 6" and especially if its been a snow starved year. In more prolific years I think I crave the 12 hour snow bombs a lot more because 2-3" refreshers seem to be a dime a dozen. The snow bombs are still my favorite, but I do love a 36 hour snow that makes things feel very wintry and gives us near warning criteria or hopefully better.

This storm has a very wintry appeal even if mid-level do try and warm...the sfc flow is really cold. Should be an interesting battle to watch between the high and the strong system to the west. The high is in almost a perfect spot to set up the combat zone over SNE. You guys are almost certainly safe from mixing.

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WEDNESDAY`S EVENT...MODEL GUIDANCE HERE APPEARS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT

AND WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THAT DOES NOT FAVOR

SNOW FOR THE OKX CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A WARM FRONT/WARM

ADVECTION PATTERN AND WHILE PCPN STARTS AS SNOW...WARM NOSE ALOFT

SUGGESTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...KEPT SFC TEMPS

CLOSE TO MOS DEW POINTS WHICH RESULTS IN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...HAVE

TAILORED AMOUNTS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 3 INCHES IN ORANGE COUNTY.

THESE AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH...BUT WANT TO AVOID FORECAST

FLIP-FLOP.

WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NGT WITH WEAK

CYCLOGENESIS TOWARD MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...IT SEEMS VERY

UNLIKELY THAT ANY COLD COULD WORK IT`S WAY BACK IN. INLAND NAM

SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST

SOME ICE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED SOME MIX. ALSO DID

INCLUDE FOG WITH THE LIGHT FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

i know i read this earlier its a joke! they had 3-6" for all of southern ct and a hazardous weather outlook, and just because the 12z suite showed less snow they lowered the snow accumulations to ZERO pretty much said no snow..

This is almost as bad as last thursday night when they said ITS too warm to snow and even if it does it won't stick. Then they issued a winter weather advisory at 6am after the entire state of CT received 3-6" of snow. JUST HORRIBLE forecasting by OKX. it was obvious it was going to snow last week by this time thursday night and they blew it. now they are trying to blow it again.

I'm not saying the NAM is going to happen just like it shows, but you can't just got out and say there is little model spread and they all say no snow, that is not true.

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If part one is suppressed like the NAM, you guys along the pike will most likely do great. That second system will have more cold air throughout the column and thus the warm punch that comes Wednesday should come into a colder thermal profile. Even if this thing is slightly south of the NAM's depiction, I-90 makes out, especially in elevated terrain.

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Odds of >5"?

(to end his personal demon)

That's a tough call...maybe 50/50 at the moment? Not sure...but it seems to be trending higher for that area. There's still a way to get screwed in this if the front end fizzle out too much and then round 2 ends up a bit too far north and they end up in a sucker hole...much less chance of it happening in this system than last one, but still a possibility.

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If there was any confusion there I didn't apply to Cornell...I was saying how I might have/might not if I applied. I got into Lyndon/Plymouth/Oswego with some $ from each.

Thanks though...just wanted to clear that up.

As a Plymouth alum, I can vouch for Plymouth. It's a great program and the faculty and facilities are top notch. The others are good too. If you have any questions about the program please feel free to PM me. Deciding where to go to college/met school is not an easy choice.

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