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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode II (Feb 29/March 1 event)


HoarfrostHubb

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Geez. EURO pretty much just screws E MA.

Round one falls apart as it comes NE. CT would still get 2-5". Maybe an inch or two ORH-BOS.

Round two largely north of the MA/NH border. Maybe another inch metro BOS.

Winter 2011-2012 - you really are a piece of work!

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Geez.  EURO pretty much just screws E MA.  

Round one falls apart as it comes NE.  CT would still get 2-5".  Maybe an inch or two ORH-BOS.  

Round two largely north of the MA/NH border.  Maybe another inch metro BOS.  

<em>Winter 2011-2012 - you really are a piece of work!

Sounds like the GFS, based on your description.

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The Euro qpf distribution generally looks kinda bizarre nowadays. All kinds of little pockets of enhanced qpf and sucker holes. I guess the model is trying to account for such small nuances and micro climates. I'm talking in general on the wunderground maps...not this event per se.

lol. Euro sort of sucks region wide. Weak rates, disjointed forcing, blah blah blah.

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As soon as the gfs came out Will left. It was nice reading his thoughts after the nam but I like reading his thoughts in good times and bad....lol.

I don't think much as changed for your location. It's more of function of how much precip you get, as temps aloft and at the surface will probably be cold enough. Like I said, maybe you get to 33F or so during Thursday in any lull in the activity...but I would not be worried about temps, and I'm sure he is not either. I think you and I have a similar concern with how formidable that first batch of precip will be. If it gets shunted to the south, then we may be in this sort of no mans land area with the best action going south and then north of us. You have a little better of a shot with the first batch because you are west. The second batch looked a little better for you and I, but that batch probably has a better likelyhood to accumulate where you are, thanks to the boundary layer temps being colder out there. As usual, we'll just have to see how the models handle the action. With that high in place, it may act to hold the mid level warm front in place to redevelop light snows during Wednesday night. The euro also had a weak vortmax slide underneath that fired up more precip to the south. That could try to enhance any snow in your area as well. The high does have a downfall in that it acts to inject lower dewpoints in the lower levels. If WAA is weak, the echoes will break apart. The risk for that is greater for BOS and the north shore.

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euro would probably still yield a couple/few inches here. nothing like the NAM of course but the soundings are still fairly chilly even into the overnight hours before things turn milder.

of course concern is the precip rates end up crappy, in which case it's just a prolonged -rn/sn mix that doesn't do anything but make me want to cry and move on to spring.

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I don't think much as changed for your location. It's more of function of how much precip you get, as temps aloft and at the surface will probably be cold enough. Like I said, maybe you get to 33F or so during Thursday in any lull in the activity...but I would not be worried about temps, and I'm sure he is not either. I think you and I have a similar concern with how formidable that first batch of precip will be. If it gets shunted to the south, then we may be in this sort of no mans land area with the best action going south and then north of us. You have a little better of a shot with the first batch because you are west. The second batch looked a little better for you and I, but that batch probably has a better likelyhood to accumulate where you are, thanks to the boundary layer temps being colder out there. As usual, we'll just have to see how the models handle the action. With that high in place, it may act to hold the mid level warm front in place to redevelop light snows during Wednesday night. The euro also had a weak vortmax slide underneath that fired up more precip to the south. That could try to enhance any snow in your area as well. The high does have a downfall in that it acts to inject lower dewpoints in the lower levels. If WAA is weak, the echoes will break apart. The risk for that is greater for BOS and the north shore.

Thanks Scott. Hopefully the nam scores a rare coup. But I guess the euro would still be a couple-4" here.

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