weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If I had to throw out a TV forecast, I don't know what the hell I would do. Maybe 3-6" region wide? I don't know, I tend to think we either get 2-3" of crap or thump to 6-9", in which case that forecast would bust no matter what. I don't know. Really tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 lol. Euro sort of sucks region wide. Weak rates, disjointed forcing, blah blah blah. Nope, after this morning...I feel OH SO GOOD FOR 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nope, after this morning...I feel OH SO GOOD FOR 4-7" Remember just a few days ago Kevin was throwing out 8-12" numbers???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 lol. Euro sort of sucks region wide. Weak rates, disjointed forcing, blah blah blah. yeah would probably be a decent wall of precip entering W NE, but looks kinda crappy after that. a bit OT, but wow at the ec showing widespread 2m temps in the 60s end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Euro looks like a good 2-4 kinda deal back here. Sort of a toaster bath NE of here though? Think back to how paltry Euro was with last Friday morning snow. You should be pretty pumped given the RGEM and some of the other meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Think back to how paltry Euro was with last Friday morning snow. You should be pretty pumped given the RGEM and some of the other meso models. Just starting to look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 4-7 is a lock for CT. Nope, after this morning...I feel OH SO GOOD FOR 4-7" Haters gon hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i say 5-9 inches in ct snowfall for wed / 8-12 in mass . watch this sun/mon for east coast storm like cmc and ukmet shows it . I tell it like i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Haters gon hate meh...i couldn't care. hopefully you can pull of 2 to 4" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Weenies making the ascent up the tobin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Weenies making the ascent up the tobin Thankfully my office is close by, so I can wait to get in line for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Geez. EURO pretty much just screws E MA. Round one falls apart as it comes NE. CT would still get 2-5". Maybe an inch or two ORH-BOS. Round two largely north of the MA/NH border. Maybe another inch metro BOS. Winter 2011-2012 - you really are a piece of work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't think it looks terrible for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Geez. EURO pretty much just screws E MA. Round one falls apart as it comes NE. CT would still get 2-5". Maybe an inch or two ORH-BOS. Round two largely north of the MA/NH border. Maybe another inch metro BOS. Winter 2011-2012 - you really are a piece of work! Futility cancel uncancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lots of in here today. From unlikely sources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Geez. EURO pretty much just screws E MA. Round one falls apart as it comes NE. CT would still get 2-5". Maybe an inch or two ORH-BOS. Round two largely north of the MA/NH border. Maybe another inch metro BOS. <em>Winter 2011-2012 - you really are a piece of work! Sounds like the GFS, based on your description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As soon as the gfs came out Will left. It was nice reading his thoughts after the nam but I like reading his thoughts in good times and bad....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sounds like the GFS, based on your description. It was a little better then that. Maybe 3-6" NW of 495 between 1 and 2, but maybe not with crappy rates. GFS was 1-3" for both if that. GFS was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lots of in here today. From unlikely sources It's tough to be optimistic this winter. I wish the EURO would beef up, but it for here, but it's coming in crappy. Looks better for your area than E MA though. Maybe you can get 2-5" with part 1. I'd bet 1-3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The Euro qpf distribution generally looks kinda bizarre nowadays. All kinds of little pockets of enhanced qpf and sucker holes. I guess the model is trying to account for such small nuances and micro climates. I'm talking in general on the wunderground maps...not this event per se. lol. Euro sort of sucks region wide. Weak rates, disjointed forcing, blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It was a little better then that. Maybe 3-6" NW of 495 between 1 and 2, but maybe not with crappy rates. GFS was 1-3" for both if that. GFS was horrible. How are the sref's? At 9z there still looked decent, probably not the case anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12z Euro is an absolute crapshoot for just about everyone. under .5" qpf for NNE where it'll actually be snow, and warm elsewhere where there's higher qpf...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How are the sref's? At 9z there still looked decent, probably not the case anymore. The link I have doesn't update until like 3-315. Someone else might have them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 One thing right off the bat is the fairly unfortunate snow growth. Looks like an OK thump of omega in the beginning but things quickly dry out and lift shifts down from 550mb to 700mb. Seems to argue for a 2 or 3 hour thump then over to sleet/freezing rain even for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As soon as the gfs came out Will left. It was nice reading his thoughts after the nam but I like reading his thoughts in good times and bad....lol. I don't think much as changed for your location. It's more of function of how much precip you get, as temps aloft and at the surface will probably be cold enough. Like I said, maybe you get to 33F or so during Thursday in any lull in the activity...but I would not be worried about temps, and I'm sure he is not either. I think you and I have a similar concern with how formidable that first batch of precip will be. If it gets shunted to the south, then we may be in this sort of no mans land area with the best action going south and then north of us. You have a little better of a shot with the first batch because you are west. The second batch looked a little better for you and I, but that batch probably has a better likelyhood to accumulate where you are, thanks to the boundary layer temps being colder out there. As usual, we'll just have to see how the models handle the action. With that high in place, it may act to hold the mid level warm front in place to redevelop light snows during Wednesday night. The euro also had a weak vortmax slide underneath that fired up more precip to the south. That could try to enhance any snow in your area as well. The high does have a downfall in that it acts to inject lower dewpoints in the lower levels. If WAA is weak, the echoes will break apart. The risk for that is greater for BOS and the north shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 euro would probably still yield a couple/few inches here. nothing like the NAM of course but the soundings are still fairly chilly even into the overnight hours before things turn milder. of course concern is the precip rates end up crappy, in which case it's just a prolonged -rn/sn mix that doesn't do anything but make me want to cry and move on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 you know what happened in DC this winter when 850 temps were -4 and it was 36 degrees? 36c is like 100+f. Btw. Even the gfs isn't that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I don't think much as changed for your location. It's more of function of how much precip you get, as temps aloft and at the surface will probably be cold enough. Like I said, maybe you get to 33F or so during Thursday in any lull in the activity...but I would not be worried about temps, and I'm sure he is not either. I think you and I have a similar concern with how formidable that first batch of precip will be. If it gets shunted to the south, then we may be in this sort of no mans land area with the best action going south and then north of us. You have a little better of a shot with the first batch because you are west. The second batch looked a little better for you and I, but that batch probably has a better likelyhood to accumulate where you are, thanks to the boundary layer temps being colder out there. As usual, we'll just have to see how the models handle the action. With that high in place, it may act to hold the mid level warm front in place to redevelop light snows during Wednesday night. The euro also had a weak vortmax slide underneath that fired up more precip to the south. That could try to enhance any snow in your area as well. The high does have a downfall in that it acts to inject lower dewpoints in the lower levels. If WAA is weak, the echoes will break apart. The risk for that is greater for BOS and the north shore. Thanks Scott. Hopefully the nam scores a rare coup. But I guess the euro would still be a couple-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 On the Wunderground Euro map for snowfall, what are the units displayed at the bottom showing? Is that snowfall per 3 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thinking a 1-3 kind of deal for most in CT. A little less at the coast and a little more north of Hartford. Hard to see how anyone exceeds 4.5 or 5" from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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