Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 With the whole mid level configuration, I can't argue with an ESE drift of the first batch. I don't know if that will happen as such, but the LLJ and forcing sort of get shunted ESE from NY and PA. The ULL to the west is what helps shove this northeast. However, the second part may be a bit better for those near the pike. Sort of give and take I guess. Some of the hires models do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 500 mb ULL is more to the south, so it helps ignite more snow near the ern mass area around 12z Thursday, but we lose part 1 a bit, gets shunted more ESE through CT. That can happen with a high like that. We'll have to see. Damn... go take a look at the hi-res models on ncep.. most of the time they are pretty damn good with precip... ARW and NMM both only spit out .25-.50 for here and a significant drop off north. They shear out the first system to death. Gut feeling is that we continue to trend for a more sheared out system 1 thus leaving only light mostly non accumulating snows.. Winter 2011-2012 rears it's ugly head once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Brian, the mid level deformation area looks a little south of 00z. At 12z, 700RH is 100% or near 100% from the CT/MA border through you and into western ME. It hangs near that area or ever so slightly moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 There is really only one person that bashes it. And then a few this AM wanted to toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 And then a few this AM wanted to toss it As usual, it's thermal profile is suspect...but it's QPF sometimes does well. Not necessarly implying anything here, just an fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Brian, the mid level deformation area looks a little south of 00z. At 12z, 700RH is 100% or near 100% from the CT/MA border through you and into western ME. It hangs near that area or ever so slightly moves north. Part 1 will continue to fade ese as has been the trend with the last several events. It should not be a surprise when all future runs to some degree slink that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Part 1 will continue to fade ese as has been the trend with the last several events. It should not be a surprise when all future runs to some degree slink that way I'd like it to thump, otherwise the euro is pretty bad for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The euro is probably the worst outcome for BOS and what I didn't want. Heaviest sw and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 As usual, it's thermal profile is suspect...but it's QPF sometimes does well. Not necessarly implying anything here, just an fyi. We talked about this briefly i think last night or earlier this am, i think, It may heave the right idea, Just to warm a thermal profile, it looks to have trouble with recognizing the cold, Basically because its a lower res model? But i think we may see it tick south some, Everything basically this year has as we get close in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The euro is probably the worst outcome for BOS and what I didn't want. Heaviest sw and north. I think it has the right general idea. This is a replay of last weekend to some extent. First piece gets clobbered after dumping to the sw and second piece is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Part 1 will continue to fade ese as has been the trend with the last several events. It should not be a surprise when all future runs to some degree slink that way Luckily this system is juicier than last weekend's disaster so even if it slides further S & E areas that are modeled to see accumulating snow still will, just not as robust amounts as many on here wish to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 There is really only one person that bashes it. According to one of our regulars...you are now a bad met for even looking at that model Haha well I just saw a couple of posters say "throw it out" when it generally is a reasonable solution. It is going to be hard to get the precipitation shield to advance farther north initially with confluence aloft. However, all of the deformation between 850-700 hPa will likely force a really strong band where the best frontogenesis sets up on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. The key question is how far north does this band move before the best forcing with the coupled jet streaks shifts eastward and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The euro is probably the worst outcome for BOS and what I didn't want. Heaviest sw and north. 1.3 FTL? OT but it looks like it's going to be not too far off from CMC D5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The euro is probably the worst outcome for BOS and what I didn't want. Heaviest sw and north. What did it show for greenfield area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well, If anyone was really gang banging the Nam, They should no better by now that its usually overdone on precip not to mention it has failed miserably this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Haha well I just saw a couple of posters say "throw it out" when it generally is a reasonable solution. It is going to be hard to get the precipitation shield to advance farther north initially with confluence aloft. However, all of the deformation between 850-700 hPa will likely force a really strong band where the best frontogenesis sets up on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. The key question is how far north does this band move before the best forcing with the coupled jet streaks shifts eastward and offshore. Yeah there always is when you have confluence like this. The further south H5 low might drive this zone southwest into SNE, despite what the QPF shows. That's sort of the magic question. Sometimes the best forcing may go south of you, but as the mid level warmfront and deformation approach or sit overhead, bands can refire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 1.3 FTL? OT but it looks like it's going to be not too far off from CMC D5-6. Actually to paraphrase LA Confidential...it's pretty f**king far off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I approve of this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What did it show for greenfield area Looked like a good 6-8" or so through 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I approve of this Euro run. How is it for me and you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I approve of this Euro run. You should, Your in a good spot for wave 1 sliding SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looked like a good 6-8" or so through 00z Friday. Gun to head: You and I for this series of systems...total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I approve of this Euro run. one of the best outcomes we could as for down here, Return of the Euro..... FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What did it show for greenfield area Charlemont/B'East will get 30-50% more than whatever falls here due to the elevation and the E. Slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 How is it for me and you? Looks like a few inches. Through ~48h-51h. 850s never go above 0c through that whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Enjoy what you have thurs, Saturday is a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I love all this bashing the GFS just because it doesn't show as moist of a solution. While I do agree that GFS temperatures aloft look a bit too warm in comparison to the NAM and ECMWF, I think it generally has a good idea with the precipitation shield, especially with the WAA lift moving through during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing and jet coupling will be located over PA and NJ, so its no surprise that we see that region as the precipitation bullseye. Phil..using the GFS in SNE is considered a no - no. We preach time and again not to use any GFS related products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Gun to head: You and I for this series of systems...total. That's not an easy question..lol. If we were at 800', probably a good 5-7". I think 2-4" for you would be my best guess. It's going to be dependent on how good the precip rates are. If we can get the H5 low further south, we'd probably do pretty well all things considered. I wasn't a fan of this euro run, but it's one run and one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah there always is when you have confluence like this. The further south H5 low might drive this zone southwest into SNE, despite what the QPF shows. That's sort of the magic question. Sometimes the best forcing may go south of you, but as the mid level warmfront and deformation approach or sit overhead, bands can refire. I can already tell you where the screw zone will be...BOS, KGAY, KSNOWNH, KSOCKS, And KHUBB.. Pretty simple actually. Wash, rinse, and repeat. Thank God I'm leaving Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Phil..using the GFS in SNE is considered a no - no. We preach time and again not to use any GFS related products Yeah, They only work in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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