Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Tick south and we thump for hours. Thumper the dumper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why do we think this? I think this is the issue with the THU pm/FRI am situation, we thought it would be too warm, but the models were hitting the snow hard. the ONLY downside I can think of at the onset is the timing given the sun angle, but once the snow comes down hard, it should start to accumulate fast I 100% agree with you Quincy. Have we not learned from last weeks event? they got 3" all the way down to the shore. If it does precipitate hard enough with these borderline temps it will snow hard and will accumulate quickly all the way down to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 most of the precip falls before the warm air moves in. I think it's safe to say the southern half of the state goes to rain, but if anything, it's like a spotty drizzle late tomorrow night into the first half of Thursday. The northern half of the state, especially the NW and NE hills could get a big mess of heavy snow, followed by an icy mix... yes thinking 2-4" shore, 4-6" inland (I-84), and 6"+ NW and NE hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If it stays plenty cold enough and it looks like it will, We can do more with less qpf if the ratios are ok Im learning. Awesome. This would help where I stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Qpf anxiety rears its ugly head. Shoot me a text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Shoot me a text You are relentless, just go and have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 yes thinking 2-4" shore, 4-6" inland (I-84), and 6"+ NW and NE hills The The I-84 demarcation is so weird to me lol. It goes from very far south in the state on the west side to the MA border on the east side. Just seems weird in a latitude dependent situation to use, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You are relentless, just go and have fun. I'm texting him to meet up, durr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Some of the guidance like the Canadian are a little bit south now with the ULL in the Lakes. The ridging behind the ULL in the Rockies looks a little sharper which perhaps is allowing it to dig just a bit more. It's actually a bit warmer initially, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Some of the guidance like the Canadian are a little bit south now with the ULL in the Lakes. The ridging behind the ULL in the Rockies looks a little sharper which perhaps is allowing it to dig just a bit more. It's actually a bit warmer initially, however. 24 hours left in the period and lots of uncertainty remains, cool. Nailing the WAA and biggest omega will be the challenge. Will cleans up front and back, congrats Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The The I-84 demarcation is so weird to me lol. It goes from very far south in the state on the west side to the MA border on the east side. Just seems weird in a latitude dependent situation to use, no? It's often good with the mix/rain line associated with Easterly flow... but I agree, it is not an E-W thoroughfare so it is not ideal... it's often where NYC Metro means as "well inland" but outside of W Ct., it loses it's meaning. Some go with the Merritt Pkwy in certain situations but again, that tilts to the NE as you move away from HVN. As an aside, I'm guessing you're south of I-84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 24 hours left in the period and lots of uncertainty remains, cool. Nailing the WAA and biggest omega will be the challenge. Will cleans up front and back, congrats Will. So your thinking orh is in the best spot all around for rounds one and two? You think its more likely to move north or south if the sweet spot does change. Im guessing 6-10 inch centered somewhere around orh/pike with 4-6,5-8 type amounts on either side with 5-8 being on the northern due to better ratios. Lollis to 18 like always of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Scott...where is the axis of deepest RH setting up for part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Biggest Euro run of the year coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It's often good with the mix/rain line associated with Easterly flow... but I agree, it is not an E-W thoroughfare so it is not ideal... it's often where NYC Metro means as "well inland" but outside of W Ct., it loses it's meaning. Some go with the Merritt Pkwy in certain situations but again, that tilts to the NE as you move away from HVN. As an aside, I'm guessing you're south of I-84... At home im well north of it probably by 15 miles at least, at school I'm about 4mi south but still pretty damn north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 it's interesting/a bit worrisome...seeing some of the modeled discrepancies in the direction the best lift heads. some of the meso models also shunt it more easterly from NJ like the GFS does...others plow it right into SNE like the NAM that's kind of the way those euro runs looked a few days back. will be interesting to see the 12z euro as it rolls out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well at least i have euro graphics today....yeah, Although i have no 0z data to compare to............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Spent the first couple decades of my life not far from DXR, so am familiar with this. Its odd, but works "OK" for much of the state as even though it starts fairly low in the state, its pretty hilly. DXR and Hartford average about the same (relatively) even though DXR is a 45 minute drive or so SW. Once you get up towards Union in far NE CT it doesn't work nearly as well. The The I-84 demarcation is so weird to me lol. It goes from very far south in the state on the west side to the MA border on the east side. Just seems weird in a latitude dependent situation to use, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lord have Mercy am i feeling good after seeing the morning runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Scott...where is the axis of deepest RH setting up for part 2? Can you wait a little bit when the euro rolls through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well early on, the 500mb confluence to the northeast looks a bit better and se ridge weaker. Might cause the 500mb low to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A little less QPF on this run, especially Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 first time doing this with picture i say that tonight models likely trend little south again so i say north of i -84 and including I-84 area will see heavy snow before it warms i say 5- 8 inches near i -84 area from danbury to hartford area to vernon area in ct http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2012022812/I_nw_r1_EST_2012022812_036.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice and cold up here on the euro, Round 2 looks like it will be good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The Euro was never as wet as the NAM, so if people are expecting that they'll probably be dissapointed. I'm just hoping it's thermal profile is more like the NAM than the GFS. Can you wait a little bit when the euro rolls through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The 500 mb ULL is more to the south, so it helps ignite more snow near the ern mass area around 12z Thursday, but we lose part 1 a bit, gets shunted more ESE through CT. That can happen with a high like that. We'll have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I love all this bashing the GFS just because it doesn't show as moist of a solution. While I do agree that GFS temperatures aloft look a bit too warm in comparison to the NAM and ECMWF, I think it generally has a good idea with the precipitation shield, especially with the WAA lift moving through during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing and jet coupling will be located over PA and NJ, so its no surprise that we see that region as the precipitation bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I love all this bashing the GFS just because it doesn't show as moist of a solution. While I do agree that GFS temperatures aloft look a bit too warm in comparison to the NAM and ECMWF, but I think it generally has a good idea with the precipitation shield, especially with the WAA lift moving through during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing and jet coupling will be located over PA and NJ, so its no surprise that we see that as the precipitation bullseye. There is really only one person that bashes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I love all this bashing the GFS just because it doesn't show as moist of a solution. While I do agree that GFS temperatures aloft look a bit too warm in comparison to the NAM and ECMWF, I think it generally has a good idea with the precipitation shield, especially with the WAA lift moving through during the day on Wednesday. The best forcing and jet coupling will be located over PA and NJ, so its no surprise that we see that region as the precipitation bullseye. According to one of our regulars...you are now a bad met for even looking at that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 With the whole mid level configuration, I can't argue with an ESE drift of the first batch. I don't know if that will happen as such, but the LLJ and forcing sort of get shunted ESE from NY and PA. The ULL to the west is what helps shove this northeast. However, the second part may be a bit better for those near the pike. Sort of give and take I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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