NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like Keene, NH jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If anyone's been to BEast lately could you please check out the ski thread? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ouch can't imagine that map would be too good if it was extended down here. Interesting too since Upton already put out a WSW for 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Thats reasonable, Only spitting out about .50" here Not bad I'm closer to .70 total with gfs and hpc qpf is .87 but that's before the 12z model runs. I had never really bought the 8-12+ for my area more than two days out. Sam's first map got me a little excited for it but now today, seems totals are creeping down a bit for cne/nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ouch can't imagine that map would be too good if it was extended down here. Interesting too since Upton already put out a WSW for 3-5 inches. Upton has been on crack for the last 2 events. Been in their CWA for 15years and they've never been this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not bad I'm closer to .70 total with gfs and hpc qpf is .87 but that's before the 12z model runs. I had never really bought the 8-12+ for my area more than two days out. Sam's first map got me a little excited for it but now today, seems totals are creeping down a bit for cne/nne. Yes. If anywhere in NNE gets more than 7-8" ill be very very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like Keene, NH jackpot Keene jackpot, non event north and east of concord? Gonna be hard to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yes. If anywhere in NNE gets more than 7-8" ill be very very surprised. You've been saying that for a day or two now, looks to be a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Not bad I'm closer to .70 total with gfs and hpc qpf is .87 but that's before the 12z model runs. I had never really bought the 8-12+ for my area more than two days out. Sam's first map got me a little excited for it but now today, seems totals are creeping down a bit for cne/nne. If it stays plenty cold enough and it looks like it will, We can do more with less qpf if the ratios are ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ouch can't imagine that map would be too good if it was extended down here. Interesting too since Upton already put out a WSW for 3-5 inches. I think Cheshire is in a good spot...the front end thump should leave at least 2-4", if not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 You've been saying that for a day or two now, looks to be a good call. Thanks yeah the dynamics really aren't there up this way. It'll be a long duration light-mod event...see the NNE thread for my thoughts and tonight I'm putting out a forecast for all of VT NH and ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Keene jackpot, non event north and east of concord? Gonna be hard to do Absolutely. It looks like some of the best QPF/ratio combo will be close to where there will be a shut-off in the precip, at least according to the NAM and the RGEM. GFS has precip heavier further north and IS an event in NNE, but the rest of them says no and instead keeps the best dynamics for heavier snowfall right around the MA/NH/VT line. I still feel like most of CT will be too warm for heavily accumulating snow for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If it stays plenty cold enough and it looks like it will, We can do more with less qpf if the ratios are ok I just hope snow growth isn't putrid and we end up with 3 inches of flour, but even that would be better than a lot of the events this year. Omega looks to be pretty good though so hopefully we don't have to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 RGEM looks cold actually. 0c 850 runs from PVD-IJD-BDL and doesn't get NE of that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I still feel like most of CT will be too warm for heavily accumulating snow for the duration. Why do we think this? I think this is the issue with the THU pm/FRI am situation, we thought it would be too warm, but the models were hitting the snow hard. the ONLY downside I can think of at the onset is the timing given the sun angle, but once the snow comes down hard, it should start to accumulate fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If it stays plenty cold enough and it looks like it will, We can do more with less qpf if the ratios are ok Its not like we aren't getting anything..lol I still think we all are good for a solid advisory event...atleast 4" for many barring a huge change on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton has been on crack for the last 2 events. Been in their CWA for 15years and they've never been this bad. Yesterday when they dropped things to next to nothing they said they were trying to avoid flip-flopping forecasts. Not good on the consistency end at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Absolutely. It looks like some of the best QPF/ratio combo will be close to where there will be a shut-off in the precip, at least according to the NAM and the RGEM. GFS has precip heavier further north and IS an event in NNE, but the rest of them says no and instead keeps the best dynamics for heavier snowfall right around the MA/NH/VT line. I still feel like most of CT will be too warm for heavily accumulating snow for the duration. It is a pretty cool battle zone setting up between the confluence from the high and the waa push. Just hope to be on the right side of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Upton has been on crack for the last 2 events. Been in their CWA for 15years and they've never been this bad. Upton has definitely been very on and off. Generally I don't look at their forecast too much, but I remember they use to eb conservative. You might say the opposite is true now though. I think Cheshire is in a good spot...the front end thump should leave at least 2-4", if not more One can only hope. After last weeks pleasant surprise, it would be nice to see another front end dump. The rain is inevitable, but I'm really hoping it can hold off until the precip gets lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why do we think this? I think this is the issue with the THU pm/FRI am situation, we thought it would be too warm, but the models were hitting the snow hard. the ONLY downside I can think of at the onset is the timing given the sun angle, but once the snow comes down hard, it should start to accumulate fast Thermal profiles look like the damming will be focused east of the CT river, then again, I heed to your senses since you're a meteorologist and I'm just a hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just hope snow growth isn't putrid and we end up with 3 inches of flour, but even that would be better than a lot of the events this year. Omega looks to be pretty good though so hopefully we don't have to deal with that. Seems to happen frequenty when we're north-fringed, whether it's lousy growth or dry air submilation (or both). Of course, 2-3" of 8:1 dust at 20F is better than what's happened most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why do we think this? I think this is the issue with the THU pm/FRI am situation, we thought it would be too warm, but the models were hitting the snow hard. the ONLY downside I can think of at the onset is the timing given the sun angle, but once the snow comes down hard, it should start to accumulate fast If rates are good enough snow accumulates. End of story, like someone said the other day about the Halloween storm 70 degrees a couple days before 2ft after. Its just those marginal rates where during the middle of winter you might get a inch or two but this time of year it just doesn't cut it. Keep in mind I'm talking if it snows and the warm air doesn't turn everything over to sleet or nfp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Why do we think this? I think this is the issue with the THU pm/FRI am situation, we thought it would be too warm, but the models were hitting the snow hard. the ONLY downside I can think of at the onset is the timing given the sun angle, but once the snow comes down hard, it should start to accumulate fast You don't think that warm tongue will make it tough sw of say, dxr-mmk-gon? You're a dxr native so I'm curious to your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Seems to happen frequenty when we're north-fringed, whether it's lousy growth or dry air submilation (or both). Of course, 2-3" of 8:1 dust at 20F is better than what's happened most of the winter. Yes, its better than whats happened most of this year, but its kind of a rip off. Give me those nice quarter sized aggregate flakes. Those are the storms we really enjoy, flours ok when your trying to build a snow pack cake but this time of year it really isn't going to last long once it stops snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Certainly looks like(on the NAM) that some of us could be snowing pretty good overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning with the first pulse. Starting to feel confident on 4-8" for the entire event. And if the NAM qpf is correct or even slightly less. That 8 could become 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just hope snow growth isn't putrid and we end up with 3 inches of flour, but even that would be better than a lot of the events this year. Omega looks to be pretty good though so hopefully we don't have to deal with that. I would think we would be able to do 10-12:1 without much trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just went to check and indeed it is. Seems they reissued the same one at 11:30. I had though the earlier one had more in the northern valley. Sorry for the false alarm. Qpf anxiety rears its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Unscientific, but what often happens is the surge of waa falls as snow as the intensity is good and can overcome the encroaching warm layer.....then as the best passes the warm layer can win and you go to pingers. Of course that does degrade snowflake quality before the actual sleet moves in. I the NAM gives me 1.2" qpf ...I'd be happy if that yielded 6 inches of snow and/or snow/sleet. You're probably good for 6". 2-5" with round 1...another 2-3" with round 2...maybe some pingers in between. I think 2-5" total down here in the valley (2-4" from wave 1...another inch or so from the second). Two questions really remain in my mind...how much QPF do we squeeze out with round 1...and have we cooled down enough when round 2 comes in to turn primarily back to snow? If both things work out in our favor, should be the biggest event of the season for ALB. If we go 1 of 2 in our favor, it's still a good event for by this winter's standards. Neither of those break in our favor, then its another winter of 2011-12 screwjob. BTW...Canadian looks really juicy for the second wave, and pretty cold too. Fingers crossed it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 most of the precip falls before the warm air moves in. I think it's safe to say the southern half of the state goes to rain, but if anything, it's like a spotty drizzle late tomorrow night into the first half of Thursday. The northern half of the state, especially the NW and NE hills could get a big mess of heavy snow, followed by an icy mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM looks RGEMish. 850 0c tickles the CT/MA/RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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