NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think if the GFS moves even an inch towards the colder solutions of the NAM/EURO...BOS tv mets need to suck it up and put more accurate numbers up by tonight's newscasts. I know Noyes will...the others need to man up esp. since this hits hard for tomorrow night's commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 not impossible. 800mb temps - look at that thermal gradient. ping ping in CT. That's a sweet product there...really shows the CAD even in the mid-levels because of the high north of ME. Shades of 12/16/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 not impossible. 800mb temps - look at that thermal gradient. ping ping in CT. That would not be good for a number of CT folks... can we wrap those around 1 specific locale instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i don't know what to make of all the hang back precip....could be pretty inconsequential. this has a look of a 6+/- hr burst. the good lift and mid-level moisture is a fairly narrow band... also could see where the band gets more intense as it shifts across SNE as the thermal gradient really tightens over E and N zones as it starts to feel the HP to the NE. NAM no longer runs the 5h low out south of us like previous runs. That was a big phail. Should be similar in the sense that SNE cashes in with event 1, event 2 is almost all CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 NAM no longer runs the 5h low out south of us like previous runs. That was a big phail. Should be similar in the sense that SNE cashes in with event 1, event 2 is almost all CNE/NNE Yeah...but areas north of the Pike get some light snow from part 2. Mood snows after thumping from round one is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Really happy for you guys in mass, we had our fun on jan 21, that nam clown map even taken with a dose of reality is sweet.......let it snow, futility bye bye!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 RGEM looks like 0.65-0.80 for most of SNE through 48h (event not over yet)...gets the mix line up near the CT/MA border but actually collapses it back south by 12z Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM at closer look is not as bad for the NE half of CT. We are definitely maxed out at 6" or so of potential accumulation except for the North East corner. But I think the first round will be mostly snow across CT accumulating 3-6". What the NAM shows like every other model, is once the precip lightens up, its over and we go over to light sleet and freezing rain but it rips from noon til about 5 or 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Really looks good for Mass. I'll probably see if the snowblower still starts at lunch. One thing I'm keeping in the back of my mind is that the accumulations will likely inch (no pun intended) lower due to: not the best of ratios (I think) and the compaction resulting from this being a long-duration event. Either way--like where I'm sitting with the opening salvo of 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 That's a sweet product there...really shows the CAD even in the mid-levels because of the high north of ME. Shades of 12/16/07 I think the high will really help out our area, like you said. I guess the question I have and what I've been referring to..is how quickly it flies northeast and then stops. It certainly not going to keep moving quickly northeast into CNE, but my concern for areas like Kevin is that it moves in late day or early evening rather quickly. Maybe it slows when it gets to Kevin, but that's the tricky area imo. All the snow algorithms have him on the line. Him and Steve think I'm trolling, but I'm not..as you can see by the NAM. That's what I have meant all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 My area is a bit more precarious by the water, but the better lift and rates will offset any warming at the surface. Luckily the temps aloft here are cold. I'll wait to see what th Euro and GFS do. My guess is the GFS cools off a tad. I'm not sure if there's anyone else who deserves the gfs to cool a tad and get you some snow with all the time you put in here and how the winters gone for you. 9 inches this year? I know you love talking about weather but its nice to have some out your front door too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah...but areas north of the Pike get some light snow from part 2. Mood snows after thumping from round one is fine with me. Yeah round 2 isn't even all that impressive on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I echo the first post on the thread. May the farce be with you EVERYONE has become at heart a starving snow weenie using the NAM's name in vain......... Don't hate on me, I'm one of you. This will be the only real snowfall this season for Sudbury (we just got slop on Halloween), and the NAM had better be right.......... It's funny how I can't help taking the clown map seriously - if it didn't jackpot me with 10-12, it would be much easier to laugh at it as it deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think the high will really help out our area, like you said. I guess the question I have and what I've been referring to..is how quickly it flies northeast and then stops. It certainly not going to keep moving quickly northeast into CNE, but my concern for areas like Kevin is that it moves in late day or early evening rather quickly. Maybe it slows when it gets to Kevin, but that's the tricky area imo. All the snow algorithms have him on the line. Him and Steve think I'm trolling, but I'm not..as you can see by the NAM. That's what I have meant all along. Yeah just about all guidance has them flirting with pingers after the initial burst...and GFS is really warm and flips me over eventually. Hopefully GFS cools some...its prob handling the CAD poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm not sure if there's anyone else who deserves the gfs to cool a tad and get you some snow with all the time you put in here and how the winters gone for you. 9 inches this year? I know you love talking about weather but its nice to have some out your front door too. Thanks man. Yeah it has sucked, but it is what it is unfortunately. I'm feeling better about it, but I'd love to see the euro and gfs cool. It's sort of a catch 22, because a tick north on the euro would ensure a heavier front end for me, but I'd like to see a little continuation of the snow too. RGEM was nice for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM at closer look is not as bad for the NE half of CT. We are definitely maxed out at 6" or so of potential accumulation except for the North East corner. But I think the first round will be mostly snow across CT accumulating 3-6". What the NAM shows like every other model, is once the precip lightens up, its over and we go over to light sleet and freezing rain but it rips from noon til about 5 or 6pm. I think most of southern Fairfield, New Haven, and Middlesex counties will have a tough time with this...maybe an inch or 2..but areas N and E of DXR-MMK-HFD-GON maybe pick up 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 RGEM looks like 0.65-0.80 for most of SNE through 48h (event not over yet)...gets the mix line up near the CT/MA border but actually collapses it back south by 12z Thu. Nice. 1980 should continue to stand alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Kudos to ORH_wxman and Coastalwx for pointing out this system potential 10+/- days ago sometime it would be neat to see what you saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice. 1980 should continue to stand alone. My 1979/1980 fetish phail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think most of southern Fairfield, New Haven, and Middlesex counties will have a tough time with this...maybe an inch or 2..but areas N and E of DXR-MMK-HFD-GON maybe pick up 3+ Agreed, maybe a dusting here, later it starts less snow will fall.........could see coatings up to 2 inches for the hills around Ridgefield east to Georgetown........Shelton those areas, quicker more snow, slower less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If anything the models may not be showing enough respect for the cold high yet. Lot's of times they pick up on that more in the last 24 hours. As it is they are showing it's effect, but maybe it will be even moreso. Kevin may do great yet. People in northern NH and the northern 2//3rds of Maine could end up getting mostly shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Kudos to ORH_wxman and Coastalwx for pointing out this system potential 10+/- days ago sometime it would be neat to see what you saw That's what I was saying, pattern recognition and analogs ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ray ...I hate to make you go out and measure at midnight. ...but this is gonna be close. Nice. 1980 should continue to stand alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 That's what I was saying, pattern recognition and analogs ftw? The Euro ensembles were hinting at it...and the analog patterns did support alot of storms...cutters and SWFEs...hopefully this is the one we cash in on. Its looking promising but there's still time to sucker punch us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 That's what I was saying, pattern recognition and analogs ftw? It was actually on some models really far out. I think we joked about it 10 days ago, but it was always signaled. There wasn't really any magic clue or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12z rgem, moved a little north down this way but delivers the goods just like the nam! Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Ray ...I hate to make you go out and measure at midnight. ...but this is gonna be close. Photo finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 wow, looking pretty much like a non event north and east of concord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 12z rgem, moved a little north down this way but delivers the goods just like the nam! Solid. What do 1.5 CM and 2CM equal? I'm in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What do 1.5 CM and 2CM equal? I'm in between the two. 0.60" and 0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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