CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i don't know what to make of all the hang back precip....could be pretty inconsequential. this has a look of a 6+/- hr burst. the good lift and mid-level moisture is a fairly narrow band... also could see where the band gets more intense as it shifts across SNE as the thermal gradient really tightens over E and N zones as it starts to feel the HP to the NE. That's where it wll pay to be at 1000ft. I think as the cold comes back south, I could pick up maybe an inch Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol at 4-9" being epic...but it is better than Dec, Jan, Feb combined Its all relative this winter Dave, enjoy the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 So basically we need to watch that warm tongue move north, because that is the big driver of all this precip. But like Will said...it will run into resistance. The further north warm tongue won't really have any implications to surface temps, but will have a much greater impact on how the precip evolves and how much will fall. With the 500 low so far west and a strong high, it wouldn't shock me if maybe that warm push was less aggressive, but then again..the models have a significant push northeast as well. Cool battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice deformation zone setting up across WNE on the NAM. It gets snow in here by 15Z tomorrow and we rip from 18Z to 00Z or so before it lessens a bit. Checking the soundings it gets the sleet line to about me before collapsing south. I have a 25-30 mb layer of 0-0.5° C air around 800 mb at 06 and 09Z. Not sure if that's enough to melt the flakes completely, but it may be enough to melt them partially for a while. As such, I'm walking a very fine line between staying all snow and getting some pingers. Areas to my SW definitely get them this run, but MPM and Pete probably stay all snow. With over 1.25" of LE on the NAM, this will be a nice event for those that stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Long duration snows for mass, epic two days of winter! Boy, we've really adjusted our definition of "epic" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Can a brotha get a clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It does have a classic SWFE look to it. The warm layer is around 800mb so i wonder if that will halt, but I think the lower levels will put up a fight. Three day ago when all the chatter was suppression the rules of SWFE rang in my head. I think Will has this nailed, colder profile and better lift inland wins out. Congrats Kev to Hubbardston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 this 12z NAM run is going to go a considerable distance correcting the area seasonal snow fall totals: FRH GRID for BOSTON; 12Z NAM 36017999454 03818 201015 38009897 42042998224 07812 160823 40009697 48032998133 00710 130822 37009699 54015996627 -0408 110822 38019800 60018996915 05006 100815 34019896 That’s 1.25” , pure snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Can a brotha get a clown map? Thru 66...but should cover most of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Three day ago when all the chatter was suppression the rules of SWFE rang in my head. I think Will has this nailed, colder profile and better lift inland wins out. Congrats Kev to Hubbardston. It didn't work much for the storm before. Every storm is different. The high is definitely good for overachieving, but respect the high level warm tongue. The good news is that it may rip for a time as it moves into westerm MA and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Kevin gets 5" on NAM and Bob gets 8-9", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 this 12z NAM run is going to go a considerable distance correcting the area seasonal snow fall totals: FRH GRID for BOSTON; 12Z NAM 36017999454 03818 201015 38009897 42042998224 07812 160823 40009697 48032998133 00710 130822 37009699 54015996627 -0408 110822 38019800 60018996915 05006 100815 34019896 That’s 1.25” , pure snow That would be awesome and go a ways towards easing the pain. Here's what I suspect happens: 1.25" of snow, pushing us to 9.05" on the season. Then we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 anyone having any trouble accessing noaa.gov? I was all last night, didn't work on comcast internet but when I used internet on my cell from Verizon it worked. Seems to happen from time to time but its working again for me on comcast. Looks like they (nws) have lowered expectations for my area a bit. Now at moderate snow accumulation for the wed and thu night periods while yesterday it had heavy for both periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NAM would be a nice Tip blue bomb. I wish I could lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Kevin gets 5" on NAM and Bob gets 8-9", lol A dumbfounding solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 A dumbfounding solution. TheSnowman will be ripping tunes out on the accordian in the middle of dendrites while Kevin is getting his scalp blistered with pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol at ll and Dan. This is playing out just like Will said it would . Models would surge north today and then as we get closer they will sense the high and ll cold and push back south. All systems gp You're in a good spot relative to Ct. but don't think LL is getting anything. We'll see what plays out in the end - confluence could come in stronger ... but that nose of warm air almost never fails and you don't have much wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Kevin gets 5" on NAM and Bob gets 8-9", lol SWFE ftw. No way in hell that is happening. 1-2" is my bar for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Man, the NAM isn't all that great for northern VT, NH, and ME...pretty sweet for I-90 from Springfield east toward BOS. Thats like 10-12" for BOS this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 TheSnowman will be ripping tunes out on the accordian in the middle of dendrites while Kevin is getting his scalp blistered with pellets. LOL, ripping tunes on the accordion. As he's sledding on that hill he made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 TheSnowman will be ripping tunes out on the accordian in the middle of dendrites while Kevin is getting his scalp blistered with pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If you put the snow flag on the clown maps, Phil gets as much snow as Kevin...longitude FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think Will's getting a bit more happy about this storm. Usually a good sign when he starts joking like that. Id feel good if I was where he was too, and after pointing out the 3/1 potential more than a week in advance. (Coastalwx too I believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Game On!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 SWFE ftw. No way in hell that is happening. 1-2" is my bar for this system. yea, im with you on the 1-2" maybe i can squeek 3 being just West of you but, either way we will see the grass on Friday. Funny how last year we didn't see the grass for 30-40 days. This year I havn't seen my yard covered in snow for more than 4 days total all winter. Local climo FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If you put the snow flag on the clown maps, Phil gets as much snow as Kevin...longitude FTW. In all honesty, there is some validity to the look of the map. Longitude will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Does my nw ct house at 1k get screwed cause of longitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If you put the snow flag on the clown maps, Phil gets as much snow as Kevin...longitude FTW. not impossible. 800mb temps - look at that thermal gradient. ping ping in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I think Will's getting a bit more happy about this storm. Usually a good sign when he starts joking like that. Id feel good if I was where he was too, and after pointing out the 3/1 potential more than a week in advance. (Coastalwx too I believe) My area is a bit more precarious by the water, but the better lift and rates will offset any warming at the surface. Luckily the temps aloft here are cold. I'll wait to see what th Euro and GFS do. My guess is the GFS cools off a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 It will be nice to use the snowblower again. First time since Oct 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.