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Obi-One-Marchobi Episode II (Feb 29/March 1 event)


HoarfrostHubb

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i don't know what to make of all the hang back precip....could be pretty inconsequential. this has a look of a 6+/- hr burst. the good lift and mid-level moisture is a fairly narrow band...

also could see where the band gets more intense as it shifts across SNE as the thermal gradient really tightens over E and N zones as it starts to feel the HP to the NE.

That's where it wll pay to be at 1000ft. I think as the cold comes back south, I could pick up maybe an inch Thursday night.

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So basically we need to watch that warm tongue move north, because that is the big driver of all this precip. But like Will said...it will run into resistance. The further north warm tongue won't really have any implications to surface temps, but will have a much greater impact on how the precip evolves and how much will fall. With the 500 low so far west and a strong high, it wouldn't shock me if maybe that warm push was less aggressive, but then again..the models have a significant push northeast as well. Cool battle.

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Nice deformation zone setting up across WNE on the NAM. It gets snow in here by 15Z tomorrow and we rip from 18Z to 00Z or so before it lessens a bit. Checking the soundings it gets the sleet line to about me before collapsing south. I have a 25-30 mb layer of 0-0.5° C air around 800 mb at 06 and 09Z. Not sure if that's enough to melt the flakes completely, but it may be enough to melt them partially for a while. As such, I'm walking a very fine line between staying all snow and getting some pingers. Areas to my SW definitely get them this run, but MPM and Pete probably stay all snow. With over 1.25" of LE on the NAM, this will be a nice event for those that stay all snow.

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It does have a classic SWFE look to it. The warm layer is around 800mb so i wonder if that will halt, but I think the lower levels will put up a fight.

Three day ago when all the chatter was suppression the rules of SWFE rang in my head. I think Will has this nailed, colder profile and better lift inland wins out. Congrats Kev to Hubbardston.

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this 12z NAM run is going to go a considerable distance correcting the area seasonal snow fall totals:

FRH GRID for BOSTON; 12Z NAM

 
36017999454 03818 201015 38009897  
42042998224 07812 160823 40009697  
48032998133 00710 130822 37009699  
54015996627 -0408 110822 38019800  
60018996915 05006 100815 34019896

That’s 1.25” , pure snow

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Three day ago when all the chatter was suppression the rules of SWFE rang in my head. I think Will has this nailed, colder profile and better lift inland wins out. Congrats Kev to Hubbardston.

It didn't work much for the storm before. Every storm is different. The high is definitely good for overachieving, but respect the high level warm tongue. The good news is that it may rip for a time as it moves into westerm MA and CT.

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this 12z NAM run is going to go a considerable distance correcting the area seasonal snow fall totals:

FRH GRID for BOSTON; 12Z NAM

36017999454 03818 201015 38009897  
42042998224 07812 160823 40009697  
48032998133 00710 130822 37009699  
54015996627 -0408 110822 38019800  
60018996915 05006 100815 34019896

That’s 1.25” , pure snow

That would be awesome and go a ways towards easing the pain.

Here's what I suspect happens: 1.25" of snow, pushing us to 9.05" on the season. Then we're done.

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anyone having any trouble accessing noaa.gov?

I was all last night, didn't work on comcast internet but when I used internet on my cell from Verizon it worked. Seems to happen from time to time but its working again for me on comcast.

Looks like they (nws) have lowered expectations for my area a bit. Now at moderate snow accumulation for the wed and thu night periods while yesterday it had heavy for both periods.

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Lol at ll and Dan. This is playing out just like Will said it would . Models would surge north today and then as we get closer they will sense the high and ll cold and push back south. All systems gp

You're in a good spot relative to Ct. but don't think LL is getting anything.

We'll see what plays out in the end - confluence could come in stronger ... but that nose of warm air almost never fails and you don't have much wiggle room.

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SWFE ftw. :snowing::yikes:

No way in hell that is happening.

1-2" is my bar for this system.

yea, im with you on the 1-2" maybe i can squeek 3 being just West of you but, either way we will see the grass on Friday. Funny how last year we didn't see the grass for 30-40 days. This year I havn't seen my yard covered in snow for more than 4 days total all winter. Local climo FTL.

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I think Will's getting a bit more happy about this storm. Usually a good sign when he starts joking like that. Id feel good if I was where he was too, and after pointing out the 3/1 potential more than a week in advance. (Coastalwx too I believe)

My area is a bit more precarious by the water, but the better lift and rates will offset any warming at the surface. Luckily the temps aloft here are cold. I'll wait to see what th Euro and GFS do. My guess is the GFS cools off a tad.

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