Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol at ll and Dan. This is playing out just like Will said it would . Models would surge north today and then as we get closer they will sense the high and ll cold and push back south. All systems gp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 here comes the rain. Still ripping in BOS at 48. At 51, mix line probably makes it to the CT-RI/MA borders to perhaps the Mass Pike. North of there...still all snow (even BOS potentially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Lol at ll and Dan. This is playing out just like Will said it would . Models would surge north today and then as we get closer they will sense the high and ll cold and push back south. All systems gp 2-5" AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The midlevel ridging is really robust this run...you can even see it defined well as high as 700mb on the isoheights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I would love to lock it in. It actually looks like our RPM..lol. Is that what WCVB (ch 5) uses? (Intellicast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The midlevel ridging is really robust this run...you can even see it defined well as high as 700mb on the isoheights. Yeah it pings you and I or close to it by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 2-5" AWT. 4-7 is a lock for Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 What a weenie run from BOS to ORH to Ray's area. Really all of Massachusetts cashes verbatim. 1" qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The midlevel ridging is really robust this run...you can even see it defined well as high as 700mb on the isoheights. outside of the warming that takes place on thur...wed PM looks a lot like yesterday's euro did with the thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 4-7 is a lock for Ct I agree. 2-4" BDL 4-7" TOL 5-9" ORH-BOS-RAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The mid level push is really strong and has looked stronger in the last 18-24 hrs. That's what is driving the QPF north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 outside of the warming that takes place on thur...wed PM looks a lot like yesterday's euro did with the thermal profiles. Think we get snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 wow maybe i will beat bdl...that is always my weenie fantasy to get more than they do bc they always get more snow than just about anyone except GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 925s actually cool through the event as the mid-levels warm. and 850s will struggle to break 0C down here with that low level cold push. verbatim i think it's warmer aloft at KTOL than CHH the way the cold feeds in from the east. Not sure what to make of it, looking at the NAM. I do think its a bit overdone on the QPF. Hopefully it has the right idea on the temp profiles. Not sure of above 850, but it looks like the damage is done before it gets above 0c for TAN. I'm too busy to really look into what it's putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 outside of the warming that takes place on thur...wed PM looks a lot like yesterday's euro did with the thermal profiles. It wouldnt shock me if the resistance gets more on models on Thu as we get closer...Thu is further out on guidance obviously so there's still time to have it come in a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 4-7 is a lock for Ct Definitely not southern CT. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 I hope the sleet does not crush Kevins 4" into 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nice weenie run for most. 6"+ north of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It wouldnt shock me if the resistance gets more on models on Thu as we get closer...Thu is further out on guidance obviously so there's still time to have it come in a little better. It does have a classic SWFE look to it. The warm layer is around 800mb so i wonder if that will halt, but I think the lower levels will put up a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 there is a definite warm tongue at 800 mb advancing from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Boston should really do well, happy for ray will scooter the fella, classic swfe stuff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Think we get snow here? yeah. we'll get some. even the very mild GFS is snow to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It wouldnt shock me if the resistance gets more on models on Thu as we get closer...Thu is further out on guidance obviously so there's still time to have it come in a little better. Yeah like we were discussing yesterday. We'd see mid levels warm today and then cool for late day and with the overnight runs. Stefs showed it already happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL, the NAM is dropping weenies overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 It does have a classic SWFE look to it. The warm layer is around 800mb so i wonder if that will halt, but I think the lower levels will put up a fight. The ML ridge to the north is impressive, so it will prob see some resistance...but the system to the west is strong too...should be a good battle...but its better that way since it would produce a much heavier period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Yeah like we were discussing yesterday. We'd see mid levels warm today and then cool for late day and with the overnight runs. Stefs showed it already happening I think you are underestimating the warm push above 850. It's still a thump for you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Long duration snows for mass, epic two days of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Long duration snows for mass, epic two days of winter! Lol at 4-9" being epic...but it is better than Dec, Jan, Feb combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 i don't know what to make of all the hang back precip....could be pretty inconsequential. this has a look of a 6+/- hr burst. the good lift and mid-level moisture is a fairly narrow band... also could see where the band gets more intense as it shifts across SNE as the thermal gradient really tightens over E and N zones as it starts to feel the HP to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The ML ridge to the north is impressive, so it will prob see some resistance...but the system to the west is strong too...should be a good battle...but its better that way since it would produce a much heavier period of snow. Yeah the ridge is awesome. Classic look to the 700mb field with the 700 warmfront moving through and then slowing. Should be a nice band of snow if that were to happen. Then mid levelsd dry out, but you'll have shallower lift from 850mb and your erly flow, so that combo is nice for ORH. Maybe even BOS with a weak coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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