CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 http://www.eas.slu.e...&HH=-99&map=SVR Total SPC storm reports based off top 15 CIPS Analogs for this set-up are pretty ominous, including several long-tracked tornadoes. Interesting to note that two of the analogs for that time frame are Palm Sunday (March 27, 1994) and March 1, 2007 (Enterprise & Americus tornadoes). It's looking like a struggle between the GFS, which says a little more south, and the NAM, which has the threat farther north into the OV. Also, it'll be interesting to watch IF a secondary low forms along the front. Either way, a lot or pieces are falling into place for at least a few tornadoes. The cap is still something to consider, especially in the Deep South, but if it breaks then we could have an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NAM soundings not as completely insane as 06Z but still off-the-charts for shear, centered in KY at 21Z. Max updraft helicity product from Wright-WX 4KM WRF suggests several long-track supercells in OH/KY/TN tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 SREF moving north with each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah the difference between the GFS/NAM is pretty much only location of the significant part of the outbreak. GFS would argue South mostly, NAM says North then possibly in the South too. Interestingly enough, the north central analog box had its fair share of svr reports as well, but less tornadoes (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw). Looks like the GFS came in a hair n/w of previous runs, along with the CMC. A look at the invidivual 09 SREF members shows a bunch of ARW/NMM members that are as or more n/w than the op NAM (and some even stronger with the MSLP). It'll be a close call to how far north the severe threat gets, imho the SPC Outlook is a good depiction of the threat with the range of model solutions on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Any predictions on what SPC will do with next update??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 After being a stronger/west outlier for several runs, interestingly the 12z NAM is now on the weaker side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Interestingly enough, the north central analog box had its fair share of svr reports as well, but less tornadoes (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw). Looks like the GFS came in a hair n/w of previous runs, along with the CMC. A look at the invidivual 09 SREF members shows a bunch of ARW/NMM members that are as or more n/w than the op NAM (and some even stronger with the MSLP). It'll be a close call to how far north the severe threat gets, imho the SPC Outlook is a good depiction of the threat with the range of model solutions on the table. yeah it is unfortunate that the CIPS only does GFS, I can just imagine what some of the NAM analogs would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Any predictions on what SPC will do with next update??? MEG thinks the MDT should be pulled further east away from the MS river: THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS MAY NEED TO BE PULLED FARTHER EAST IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Please don't shoot the messenger. Via AccuCrap.com News: Friday Tornado Setup Similar to 1974 Super OutbreakThursday, March 01, 2012 11:57 ET By Alex Sosnowski, expert senior meteorologist. The setup and aftermath on Friday for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys could be similar to the weather pattern during and following the 1974 Super Outbreak. Spanning April 3-4, 1974, a swarm of tornadoes tore through areas from Illinois and southern Michigan to northern Alabama and Georgia. The outbreak produced 148 confirmed tornadoes, six of which were F-5 intensity. The most powerful of these storms slammed into Xenia, Ohio. Every weather pattern no matter how similar always has its differences, and this outbreak will have its own characteristics. However, according to Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity, "In the case of the end of this week and back in early April of 1974, it appears strong upper-level winds and cool air approaching from the west could hit a zone of advancing warm, moist air in just the right manner to produce monsters of thunderstorms." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wow. Cold air from the north is meeting warm air from the south. Must be a '74 outbreak setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 "SPC has a significant box that covers most of the 1974 Super Outbreak area, let's make a comparison!" Save me jebus! Plan on chasing this tomorrow in Southern IN/OH and possibly moving north. No plans to go south of the Ohio River due to few crossings (Plus the Louisville & Cincy crossings are often full of traffic/construction) and I need to be close to home Friday night. The timing stinks, I was going to go to the OSU Severe Wx Symposium tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Please don't shoot the messenger. Via AccuCrap.com I just placed my head into a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 "SPC has a significant box that covers most of the 1974 Super Outbreak area, let's make a comparison!" Save me jebus! Plan on chasing this tomorrow in Southern IN/OH and possibly moving north. No plans to go south of the Ohio River due to few crossings (Plus the Louisville & Cincy crossings are often full of traffic/construction) and I need to be close to home Friday night. The timing stinks, I was going to go to the OSU Severe Wx Symposium tomorrow.... I-64 bridge in Louisville is open again which has reduced traffic on I-65 tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Honestly, Accuweather is pretty much just a giant-hype machine. Tomorrow will be dangerous, but not 1974 or 4/27/11 dangerous. People need to really calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 "SPC has a significant box that covers most of the 1974 Super Outbreak area, let's make a comparison!" Save me jebus! Plan on chasing this tomorrow in Southern IN/OH and possibly moving north. No plans to go south of the Ohio River due to few crossings (Plus the Louisville & Cincy crossings are often full of traffic/construction) and I need to be close to home Friday night. The timing stinks, I was going to go to the OSU Severe Wx Symposium tomorrow.... I'll be stuck there all day. Come check it out then chase right afterwards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 All it takes is one or two poorly placed tornadoes and you could have a catastrophe. That can happen in a much less obvious setup than tomorrow. I think big comparisons should generally be avoided, especially from a large outlet, but if you're going to compare, at least be specific about what you're comparing instead of using very generic terminology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I just placed my head into a wall. My head went through the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 All it takes is one or two poorly placed tornadoes and you could have a catastrophe. That can happen in a much less obvious setup than tomorrow. I think big comparisons should generally be avoided, especially from a large outlet, but if you're going to compare, at least be specific about what you're comparing instead of using very generic terminology. Exactly, which is the scary part. We may have only a couple F3-F5 tornadoes tomorrow (if even that), but if one or more track through the downtown area of a major city, then we could be looking at high death tolls even if the setup isn't all that favorable overall from a meteorological perspective. I'm not saying that would happen this time around, but in these kinds of events there is always a very tiny probability that it could. EDIT: That wording was bad. Redid it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Please don't shoot the messenger. Via AccuCrap.com Making it sound like we can forecast EF4/5 tornadoes is just plain wrong. From a predictability standpoint, even saying that we can forecast tornadoes (more than about a half hour ahead of time) is wrong. The best we can do is predict an environment that is favorable for producing supercells and/or low-level mesocyclones, where tornadoes are most likely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's been a long time since there has been a city hit by a tornado..... Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Exactly, which is the scary part. We may have only a couple F3-F5 tornadoes tomorrow (if even that), but if one or more track through the downtown area of a major city, then we could be looking at high death tolls even if the setup isn't all that favorable overall from a meteorological perspective. I'm not saying that would happen this time around, but in these kinds of events there is always a very tiny probability that it could. EDIT: That wording was bad. Redid it. I'm not sure about it being unfavorable from a meteorological perspective (considering the potential for long tracked significant tornadoes), but I agree what HM just did was highly irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah B-Rent, it's been a whole 9 months Accuweather = Hype. The more they hype, the more media exposure they get and hits to their website which = advertising $$. Looks to be an active day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 From Jesse's blog: Our meteorologists are humbled by the data that they are seeing today, and we want the media to take heed. Our meteorologists are humbled by the data that they are seeing today, and we want the media to take heed pay attention to us. FIXED. Accuweather is the Stephen A Smith of Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxfan22 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's been a long time since there has been a city hit by a tornado..... Sent from my iPad HD Not really. Last year Birmingham and Saint Louis were both hit by damaging tornadoes. Many other cities have been affected in the last 5 years (Ex: Memphis/Atlanta). There are several populated centers in the middle of the Moderate Risk tomorrow which is pretty concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Humbled by the data? LOL This looks nothing like the ridiculous conditions of 4/27/11 Here's the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Not really. Last year Birmingham and Saint Louis were both hit by damaging tornadoes. Many other cities have been affected in the last 5 years (Ex: Memphis/Atlanta). There are several populated centers in the middle of the Moderate Risk tomorrow which is pretty concerning. Sarcasm. Metro tornadoes seem to be the theme of the decade. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Where are you seeing any widespread subsidence over Ohio? Sure the strongest ascent is still west, but that's still ascent. Or was that just in earlier runs? Yeah I didn't understand that one either.. It was on the 0z run of 500/700 mb vv's off of the ucar site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It was on the 0z run of 500/700 mb vv's off of the ucar site I wouldn't be using the VV's off the GFS, that is a essentially a mesoscale feature which GFS at best will broadbrush their placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I wouldn't be using the VV's off the GFS, that is a essentially a mesoscale feature which GFS at best will broadbrush their placement. It was the NAM...not using it for mesoscale placement. Was looking at it at a synoptic scale. The ucar vv's product one of Paul Markowski's favorite tools he used to teach us/me when analyzing maps for favored areas for tornado genesis. Google him...then you might not critique the method so much. Actually you shouldn't have to even google him, if you have studied anything about convective processes/tornado genesis it should be a household name like Doswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 RUC/HRRR are deeper and farther northwest with the surface low than the 12z op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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