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Severe Potential March 2nd/3rd: OV, TN Valley, Mid-South, Deep South, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas


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The veered surface winds and the high LCLs due to drier air mixing down are/have been limiting factors for significant tornado production south of the KY/TN line. This might change in the next few hours as cells move eastward into eastern TN/KY, where the low-level winds are more backed and LCLs are lower due to terrain, although I still don't see the threat being as substantial as it was over the northern area (IN/KY/OH) earlier.

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Please stop posting false information in a sad attempt to verify your poor forecasting abilities based on "subsidence" earlier. You were clearly proven wrong in KY, and even though you kept flip/flopping and made a post that basically covered all of the bases in an attempt to ensure you could claim success, you are still being proven wrong in TN.

Just stop. It's not helping anything, and you are ruining your reputation.

I will stop...but the fact that you claim I am flip flopping is untrue. I put my forecast out there at 4 am and based on the different model results and said they didn't converge to one set solution. I highlighted the areas I thought had the best "potential" and the areas where I thought might struggle to achieve. How did I cover all the bases??? I noted specific geographic areas. I didn't broadbrush anything. We can evaluate this tomorrow. I have to work.

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The veered surface winds and the high LCLs due to drier air mixing down are/have been limiting factors for significant tornado production south of the KY/TN line. This might change in the next few hours as cells move eastward into eastern TN/KY, where the low-level winds are more backed and LCLs are lower due to terrain, although I still don't see the threat being as substantial as it was over the northern area (IN/KY/OH) earlier.

Strongly agree with this. I have to admit, I disagreed with the SPC decision not to extend the HIGH down to at least HSV earlier this afternoon, but their thinking is being vindicated so far.

Though a brief glance at reflectivity and tornado warnings in GR3 would suggest a serious event is underway for middle TN and northern MS/AL, very few reports or mean couplets have materalized thus far.

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Strongly agree with this. I have to admit, I disagreed with the SPC decision not to extend the HIGH down to at least HSV earlier this afternoon, but their thinking is being vindicated so far.

Though a brief glance at reflectivity and tornado warnings in GR3 would suggest a serious event is underway for middle TN and northern MS/AL, very few reports or mean couplets have materalized thus far.

I think the sigtor threat is greatly diminished south of TN as the sfc flow is much too veered, the upper level energy is moving away from the area, and LCLs are fairly high. The attention should shift over the eastern TN and KY in the more backed windfield.

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Caught this tweet: https://twitter.com/...8932481/photo/1

Marysville, IN:

post-96-0-71235400-1330727345.jpg

This is what the debris ball went over earlier...

Animated GIF of the radar (large image): http://madusweather....isball_loop.gif

Oh man. Who knows what the building construction was like but seeing foundations and the reports of debris falling well out ahead suggest this was a higher end tornado.

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